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UFC on Fox 24: Ronaldo Souza vs. Robert Whittaker Odds and Prediction

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Two of the UFC’s top welterweight collide in the under card of UFC on Fox 24 on April 15th, 2017 at the Sprint Center in Missouri.

3rd ranked Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza takes on the red hot 6th ranked Robert Whittaker in a bout that could cement a title shot for Souza or push Whitaker amongst the middleweight elites.

Waiting For His Shot

Jacare has been waiting for his title shot for too long and despite the controversial loss to Yoel Romero, this is the man who is the most deserving to face Michael Bisping for the belt. But with GSP given that opportunity now, Souza has decided to keep himself busy. And he’s decided to do so by taking a fight against one of the more dangerous punchers in the division.

Robert Whitaker’s move to middleweight has paid off, so far. After going 3-3 in his last six welterweight bouts, the hard hitting Australian moved up in weight class in 2014. Since then, he’s won five fights in a row with three stoppages. All three stoppages have earned him post fight bonuses.  Whitaker is coming off a win over the equally powerful Derek Brunson but he’s definitely moving to a higher level fighting one of the best middleweights ever in Jacare Souza.

The Odds

Jacare is currently a -245 favorite against Whittaker who is at +185. You can make a good argument for either fighter because both are currently on a good run.

Although he’s already 37 years of age, Jacare Souza is a prime example of consistency. Since losing to Luke Rockhold in his UFC debut in 2011, Souza has gone 10-1 with his only defeat the controversial split decision loss to Yoel Romero at UFC 194. Souza is considered one of the best grapplers in the sport with 70% of his victories ( 17 out of 24 ) coming by submission.

Robert Whittaker has powered his way to five straight wins in the middleweight division. But even if he’s coming off an explosive first round TKO of Derek Brunson, he hasn’t stepped inside the octagon with a highly decorated Jiu Jitsu practitioner like Ronaldo Souza. Sure, Whitaker possesses tremendous punching power and high volume striker but Jacare has seen it all inside that Octagon.

The Prediction

The main concern here is that Souza is making a quick return fight because he just fought last February. But given his track record, that should not be a problem. Souza’s age may sound like a red flag too as he could as they say grow old overnight during this fight. Given his consistency though, that’s unlikely.

Souza’s grappling skills meanwhile could be a big problem for Whittaker. Look, Robert Whittaker has good grappling and can win an ugly fight on the ground. It’s just unlikely he can do it against a true middleweight elite who has multiple Jiu Jitsu and grappling world titles on his resume. Souza’s grappling is second to none. It should be the key here. We’re picking Ronaldo Souza to beat Robert Whittaker.

UFC 210: Will Brooks vs. Charles Oliveira Odds and Prediction

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An interesting lightweight matchup was added to UFC 210 fight card, as Will Brooks faces the returning Charles Oliveira in a three round affair.

Rough Road

The move to the UFC has been a rough road for Will Brooks. After winning the Bellator Season 9 Lightweight tournament in 2013, Brooks cemented his status as the Scott Coker-led promotion’s Lightweight king with back to back victories over Michael Chandler. After two title defenses, though, Brooks tried his luck at the UFC where he signed a six-fight deal and debuted with a UD win over Ross Pearson at the TUF 23 Finale. But one fight later, Brooks suffered the second defeat of his career at the hands of Alex Oliveira, losing by KO at UFC Fight Night 23. The last time he lost, Brooks bounced back with nine straight wins. He looks to rebound again against a tough submission artist.

Submission Specialist

Charles Oliveira’s middle name should’ve been submission because the Brazilian veteran is one of the best submission artists in the UFC. A whopping 13 of Oliveira’s 21 victories have come by submission and he’s had a long line of notable victims in the UFC: Hatsu Hioki, Jeremy Stephens, Nick Lentz and most recently Myles Jury. Despite his grappling expertise, it was kind of surprising to see Oliveira lose his last two bouts by submission, both by guillotine choke to Anthony Pettis and Ricardo Lamas. Still ever dangerous on the mat, Oliveira looks to rebound – just like Brooks – from a defeat and rise as one of the contenders in the red hot lightweight division.

The Odds

Will Brooks is a -260 favorite while Charles Oliveira is currently a +250 underdog. Despite Brooks’ two fight resume in the UFC, he is a proven winner with the Bellator title on top of his achievements. Sure, he lost to Alex Oliveira, but remember Cowboy grossly missed weight for that bout and Brooks still took it. Will Brooks has been nothing but solid all throughout his career and his consistency should be crucial here. If this fight remains on the feet, Brooks has a huge advantage over Oliveira and if this one goes down to the ground (which is likely Oliveira’s game plan), Brooks’ grappling and wrestling are polished enough to match Oliveira.

Aside from a two fight losing skid, Oliveira is expecting his wife to give birth to their first child at about the same time UFC 210 is happening. No matter how focused he and his team says he is about Will Brooks, you can never take away a father’s excitement of his first born child. Oliveira needs a win badly but moving back up to 155 isn’t the solution. Nor is it going to be fighting Will Brooks. Du Bronx hasn’t won at 155 since December of 2015 and he’s not going to win against Will Brooks either. We’re picking Will Brooks to beat Charles Oliveira.

Chris Weidman American Flag

Chris Weidman vs. Gegard Mousasi Odds and Prediction: Can All-American Bounce Back?

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Former UFC middleweight Chris Weidman looks to stop the first losing streak of his career when he faces the surging Gegard Mousasi at UFC 210 on April 8th.

Opposite Ways

Weidman vs Mousasi is a fight between fighters going opposite ways. Mousasi is on his best winning run ever, while Weidman is trying to snap out of a skid.

Chris Weidman was one of the hottest fighters when he came off back to back wins over the legendary Anderson Silva. But after going 13-0, it has been downhill for the New Yorker. Not only did he lose his middleweight title to Luke Rockhold at UFC 194, he lost his comeback fight against Yoel Romero at the monumental UFC 205 in New York.

With back to back losses, Weidman cannot afford another setback. But things haven’t gotten easier as he will face a fighter who is experiencing his best run in his UFC career. Former Strikeforce middleweight champion Gegard Mousasi has won six of his last seven fights and his last three by knockout. Mousasi’s winning streak has put him him in the Top 5 of the UFC middleweight rankings for the first time ever. A victory over the 4th ranked Weidman will surely generate talks of a title shot against the winner of Bisping vs St. Pierre.

The Odds

Weidman is currently at even money ( +100 ) while Mousasi is slightly favored at -125. The concern with Weidman right not is that he’s lost back to back fights by knockout and Gegard Mousasi has the same (if not more) power than Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero.

Like Weidman’s last two conquerors, Mousasi is an excellent striker who averages 3.68 significant strikes landed per minute. He’s also precise with his strikes at 50% accuracy. If this fight stays on the feet, Mousasi will have the big advantage over Weidman. But that’s not the end of our story. Mousasi’s takedown defense is good, but not great. And against an All-American wrestler like Weidman, that could spell trouble.

Grounding Mousasi

Weidman averages 3.33 takedowns per 15 minutes. That’s more than the average of the last 7 opponents of Mousasi, during which he’s been 6-1. The last time Mousasi faced someone with a better average was in 2014 against Jacare Souza. During that bout, Mousasi was taken to the ground four times and was submitted by the Brazilian grappler in the third round.

Weidman may not have the submission skills of Souza but his wrestling and grappling are just as dominating. If Weidman forces Mousasi to the mat, it’s going to be trouble for the Dream Catcher. This fight can go either way but given this will be in Weidman’s hometown in New York and Weidman is more desperate for a victory, we’re going with Chris Weidman here.

Sure, it’s not going to be necessarily dominant. But this will be ugly and grinding. Weidman’s going to take Mousasi to the ground and win it whichever way he can. We’re picking Chris Weidman to win by decision or ground and pound stoppage.

UFC Fight Night 107: Jimi Manuwa vs. Corey Anderson Odds and Prediction

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Two of the light heavyweight division’s up and coming contenders square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night 107 at the O2 Arena in London on March 18th, 2017.

Fifth ranked Jimi Manuwa will face 7th ranked Corey Anderson in a fight that was promoted to top billing after the UFC reportedly had a difficulty in booking a main event for their London return. Needless to say, it’s set up as a big fight and the crowd at O2 Arena should be loud and ready for a good one:

This will be Manuwa’s second time to headline an event at the O2 Arena. Previously, he was knocked out by Alexander Gustafsson at UFC Fight Night 37.

Knocking On Championship Door

Manuwa is coming off an impressive 2nd round knockout win over former title challenger Ovince St. Preux at UFC 204 in Manchester. The English fighter has a 16-2 record and has 14 KOs to his credit. He’s been knocking on the championship door several times before but knockout losses to Anthony Johnson and Alexander Gustafsson have derailed Poster Boy in the past two years. With another opportunity to headline an event, Manuwa looks to improve his ranking and get closer to that chance to finally fight for a world title.

Fellow Up And Comer

After winning the Ultimate Fighter 19 season, Corey Anderson has compiled a 5-2 record in the UFC. The 7th ranked light heavyweight is also coming off a TKO victory over Sean O’Connell at UFC Fight Night 102 last December. Like Manuwa, he’s one of the up and comers in a stacked 205-pound division. But like Manuwa, he come up short in the biggest bout of his career. Overtime suffered a close split decision win against Mauricio Shogun Rua at UFC 198 in May 2016. But given a chance to make a name for himself, Anderson sets his sights on beating another highly ranked fighter in Manuwa. A victory over Manuwa puts Anderson on the title map but it won’t be easy.

Experience is The Key

The odds are calling this one for the Brit with Manuwa currently a -145 favorite against Anderson’s +115. But while the lines may be close, Manuwa has significant advantage in terms of experience and quality of opposition faced. Like Manuwa, Corey Anderson is an accurate striker with high volume of punches thrown. But we saw what happened to Ovince St. Preux when he faced Manuwa at UFC 204. Corey Anderson does have the puncher’s chance of beating Manuwa but it’s unlikely the hometown boy will disappoint. We’re picking Jimi Manuwa to win this fight via knockout.

UFC 209: Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson Odds and Prediction

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Five rounds weren’t enough to get a winner. Now the UFC adds another five more.

Four months after they figured in a controversial majority draw at the historic UFC 205 last November, UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley and top contender Stephen Thompson go at it again. This time, the welterweight pair will be the headliner of UFC 209 at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena.

Controversial Draw

Woodley won the UFC welterweight title with a dramatic first round knockout of Robbie Lawler at UFC 201 in July of 2016. He retained the belt with the controversial draw against Wonderboy in November. But retaining the title won’t be enough for the Chosen One. Woodley plans on giving Wonderboy the worst beating of his career.

After their first bout, Thompson was immediately campaigning for a rematch. Woodley on the other hand, tried to lure the UFC into booking him big fights with GSP or Nick Diaz. In the end though, Dana White felt the two needed five more rounds to settle the score. They were booked to be the main event of UFC 209 on March 4th in Sin City.

The Odds

Stephen Thompson opened as a -120 favorite while the champion Woodley opened at even money. The current money lines haven’t changed much with Thompson fluctuating from -120 to -135 and Woodley from even money to +105. Woodley won’t like these numbers but these are better than the +120 and +140 with which he opened and closed during their first bout. However, it’s still surprising how Woodley is the underdog considering what transpired during their first meeting.

Woodley outstruck Thompson 113-60 in total strikes and 61-43 in significant strikes. He was also able to take Thompson down once and nearly submitted Wonderboy at one point in the bout. Many observers felt Woodley won and got the raw deal from the judges. Not only did he land more shots, he was the one who connected with the more telling blows.

More Well Rounded

Despite getting only a draw from the judges, Woodley erased the doubts on his cardio and his ability to mix it up with a premiere striker like Stephen Thompson. Not only did he take Thompson’s strikes well, but he also showed that he was the more well-rounded fighter.

Nothing much changes here, especially since their last fight was only last November. Sure, Wonderboy will make adjustments, but so will Woodley. Overall, we see Tyron Woodley as the better all-around fighter and Wonderboy the more flashy striker. Look for Woodley to shoot for more takedowns in the rematch. He had Thompson in a whole lot of trouble on his back. Wonderboy won’t be easy to beat though, even on the ground. But Woodley is going to hack out a decision win in this fight. It’s going to be close, perhaps a split decision. But Woodley should get the win this time around.

UFC Fight Night 105: Derrick Lewis vs. Travis Browne Odds and Prediction

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UFC Top 10 heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Travis Browne collide at UFC Fight Night 105 on February 19, 2017 in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada with the winner moving on to greener pastures and the loser moving down the heavyweight ladder.

New Main Event

Brown and Lewis were set to square off at UFC 208 on February 11 in Brooklyn but after the Halifax event lost its main event of Dos Santos vs Struve following Struve’s injury, the heavyweight showdown between Hapa and the Black Beast was moved to the promotion’s next event as its headliner. The move speaks a lot about the promise of Lewis and the drawing power of Browne, who is more popularly known as Ronda Rousey’s boyfriend.

Black Beast

Derrick Lewis isn’t the Black Beast for nothing. He’s recorded a knockout in all but two of his 17 wins. He’s lost four times though, two by KO but has won five bouts in a row, four of them by knockout via punches. The only opponent he didn’t knockout during this run was Roy Nelson and we know Big Country has the best chin in the business. Lewis has tremendous power in his punches and that’s his main weapon. What impressed us with Lewis is how he’s improved the other facets of his game lately. In his most recent bout against sambo master Shamil Abdurakhimov, Lewis came from behind to win by stoppage.

Something’s Not Right

Travis Browne is one of the best strikers in the UFC’s heavyweight division. We saw a lot of that in 2013 when Browne was at his finest, beating Gabriel Gonzaga, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett in succession and by stoppages. But something’s not right with Hapa lately. His striking has been off as he was dominated by both Fabricio Werdum and Cain Velasquez in his last two bouts.  If you take away Browne’s striking, then he is just a mediocre fighter on the ground. Nothing special with his wrestling or grappling skills really.

Even Fight

This is one of those pick’em fights. Lewis is a -137.50 favorite while Browne is a slight  +110 underdog. In the UFC’s heavyweight division, one doesn’t really have to be well rounded to win. You just have to have the power. Now both these fighters have that game changing power, just that Lewis may have more. But Travis Browne is the more dynamic striker and the quicker one on his feet. What should play an important factor in this fight is the current streak of each fighter. Brown has lost four of six bouts and has dropped to #9 in the rankings. Lewis meanwhile has won five in a row and has risen one spot above Hapa at #8. We’ll play the streaks here and bank on Lewis’ power. We’re predicting that Derrick Lewis knocks out Travis Browne.

UFC Fight Night 104: Dennis Bermudez vs. Chan Sung Jung Odds and Prediction

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One of the UFC’s most charismatic fighters returns to the octagon after a three-year absence.

Zombie Returns

South Korean featherweight Chan Sung Jung will make his UFC return on February 4th at UFC Fight Night 104 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. Known as the Korean Zombie for his uncanny ability to take heavy punishment, Jung left the UFC in 2013 in order to serve his two year mandatory military service to his home country. Jung hasn’t fought since his failed title bid against Jose Aldo at UFC 163.

Meanwhile, Dennis Bermudez will be getting his first main event appearance against the Korean Zombie. A finalist in The Ultimate Fighter 14, Bermudez is 2-2 in his last four bouts but has won two fights in a row. The Menace is coming off decision wins over Tatsuya Kawajiri and Rony Jason and will be looking to improve his current #9 ranking in the UFC’s 145 pound division. Jung is unranked but don’t let that deceive you.

Choke Artist?

Current odds have Bermudez a slight -135 favorite over Jung’s +123. The reason is likely the Korean Zombie’s three-year hiatus from the sport. On the other hand, Bermudez has won two in a row with both wins coming in 2016. However, Bermudez hasn’t had a really meaningful win since beating Max Holloway by split decision at UFC 160 in 2013. Prior to his win streak, he lost by stoppage to Ricardo Lamas and Jeremy Stephens.

Bermudez likes to wear his opponents down and beat them in a grinder. But while he’s an excellent wrestler, he doesn’t have good submission defense. Four of his five losses have actually come by submission. The problem here is that Chan Sung Jung is a submission artist, with 9 of his 14 wins by submission. It’s interesting to note that three of Bermudez’s four submission losses were via chokes and five of Jung’s nine submission wins were by chokes, too.

The Pick

Bermudez has a feared ground and pound game but remember he lost the TUF 14 tournament after getting caught with an armbar while hammering Diego Barandao. Having said that, the Korean Zombie should have the advantage if this fight goes down to the ground.

On their feet, Jung is the better striker and has the physical advantages over Bermudez at three inches in height and six inches in reach. Given the plus money, I’d risk the Zombie’s ring rust and pick him to submit Dennis Bermudez for the victory.

Donald Cerrone vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds and Prediction

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Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone returns to the UFC Octagon against Jorge Masvidal at UFC on Fox 23 on January 28th, 2016.

I Know A Guy

Known as the most active fighter in the UFC, Cerrone had just beaten Matt Brown at UFC 206 last December 10th, 2016. But after disposing of the ‘Immortal’, Cerrone immediately requested to be booked for UFC on Fox 23, which will be held in his hometown of Denver, Colorado.

Known for his trademark statement ‘I know A Guy’ when volunteering to fight on short notice, Cerrone wanted to fight so badly on the event that he was willing to fight anybody the UFC would put in front of him. Cerrone is 4-0 since moving up to welterweight and he’s had impressive success. He submitted Charles Oliveira, then knocked out PAtrick Cote, Rick Story and Brown in succession. He’s looking to improve his #5 ranking in his new weight class.

Revenge Factor

Jorge Masvidal has been campaigning for a fight with Cerrone for quite some time now. After beating Jake Ellenberger at the TUF 24 Finale last month, he called out Cowboy once again.

Masvidal was slated to face Kelvin Gastelum last November at the iconic UFC 205, but Gastelum was pulled out from their bout and was booked to face Cerrone at the same event after Robbie Lawler begged off of his bout with Cowboy. Masvidal didn’t like that move and sees this fight as a way of getting his revenge on Cerrone. Masvidal owns notable victories over K.J. Noons, Tim Means, Ross Pearson and Ellenberger. However, he’s lost the biggest fights of his career and has been hit or miss lately.

Who Wins

Cerrone is a -160 favorite over Masvidal who is now at +140. Although Masvidal is coming off a big win over Ellenberger, he is 3-3 only in his last bouts.

According to Fightmetric, Masvidal lands more strikes per minute at 4.2 versus 4.16. He also has the better striking defense at 64% against 54% for Cowboy. Masvidal’s 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes is also better than Cerrone’s 1.38. However, Cerrone is the better all-around fighter. Masvidal may give Cerrone a fight standing up but when this goes to the ground, Cowboy has all the advantage with his supreme submission skills.

Masvidal has a history of struggling against better opposition and against Cerrone, he will also be fighting in hostile territory. Masvidal is a good boxer and excellent striker but Cerrone has been in the zone lately. We’re picking Donald Cerrone to beat Jorge Masvidal in this contest.

UFC Fight Night 103: Joe Lauzon vs. Marcin Held Odds And Prediction

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In a battle of UFC veteran against newcomer, Joe Lauzon faces Marcin Held in the co-headliner of  UFC Fight Night 103 on January 15th, 2017 at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona.

The Bonus Man

Lauzon is the UFC’s all-time leader in Post Fight Bonuses with 15. Considering he’s fought 21 times under the UFC banner, it’s safe to say that Lauzon is an all-exciting fighter, win or lose. But the rigors of a long 10-year career with the UFC have taken its toll on the Bonus Man. Lauzon is just an even 3-3 in his last six bouts. In his most recent Octagon appearance, Lauzon lost via split decision to Jim Miller. With his career on the rocks, he hopes to get back to his winning ways against a promotional newcomer who’s also looking to make a mark in his new home.

Polish Prodigy

Known as the Polish Prodigy in media circuits, the 24-year old Marcin Held has fought mostly in his native Poland before making quite a name for himself in Bellator MMA. In Bellator, Held had an 11-3 record but came short in his first and only title shot at Bellator 145. Despite that, Held owns notable wins over Phillipe Nover, Rich Clementi, Derek Anderson and Ryan Freire. The victory over Freire earned Held the title of Bellator Lightweight Tournament season 10 winner. In his UFC debut last November, Held lost to Diego Sanchez by unanimous decision. He looks to pocket his first UFC win against the equally hungry Lauzon.

Experience Over Youth

The odds currently have Joe Lauzon as a -150 favorite over Held, who is at +120. Held hasn’t lost back to back bouts in his entire MMA career and is the younger man in this contest. He is an excellent grappler with 12 submission wins under his belt. He also has shown that he can go the distance with quality opponents.

Joe Lauzon, though, has the experience and the better all-around game. He can win the fight on the ground, as well as on his feet. Lauzon has won 65% of his bouts by submission. He also owns the most Submission of the Night awards in the UFC with six. But his last three victories have been by knockout. In addition, 25 of Lauzon’s 26 victories have been by stoppage, so he’s also a guy who can finish the fight at any moment.

Held is a good prospect for the UFC, but at this point of his career he isn’t experienced enough to outlast a fighter who’s gone toe to toe with some of the best in the business. We’re picking Joe Lauzon to win here by late submission or unanimous decision.

UFC 206: Max Holloway vs. Anthony Pettis Odds and Prediction

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UFC 206 lost its original main event after light heavyweight champ Daniel Cormier pulled out of the event with an injury. Good thing UFC 206 already had a marquee featherweight bout as co-main event. That featherweight scrap is now promoted to main event status, and it may even turn out to be a better fight than Cormier vs. Johnson.

Interim Title Bout

With Conor McGregor relinquishing (or getting stripped, whichever you want to believe) the title he won with his 13-second destruction of Jose Aldo last year, the UFC has promoted the Max Holloway – Anthony Pettis showdown to an interim title bout. And for Max Holloway, it’s getting the title shot that he’s earned through the years.

After starting his UFC career with a modest 3-3 record, Holloway has blossomed into one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC’s 145-pound weight class. Since losing to Conor McGregor in 2013, Holloway has racked up an impressive 9-consecutive wins to become the division’s 2nd ranked contender. During this winning run, “Blessed” has beaten Top 10 contenders Cub Swanson, Charles Oliveira and Jeremy Stephens.

Second Lease on Life

Anthony Pettis, meanwhile, has found a new lease on his UFC life at a new weight class. Following three straight losses to Rafael Dos Anjos, Eddie Alvarez and Edson Barboza, “Showtime” bounced back with an impressive 3rd round submission win in featherweight debut against submission master Charles Oliveira. The win immediately put Pettis at #5 in the UFC’s official Featherweight rankings and put him in a position to fight for the title.

The stakes are high for this bout, as the winner will face newly promoted champion Jose Aldo for the undisputed UFC Featherweight title sometime in the near future. And if you’re looking for a dog fight, it can’t get any better than this.

Blessed Over Showtime

Holloway opened as a -185 favorite against Pettis’ +145 when the betting lines for this bout opened. As of the latest UFC 206 odds (12.2.16), Pettis has narrowed the gap at +130 for him and -160 for Holloway. The odds are -160 that this fight goes the distance while it’s +160 that it doesn’t. These make Pettis-Holloway a tough fight to fight to predict, but it’s definitely going to be a exciting striking battle between two of the sport’s premier strikers.

Pettis has excellent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Taekwondo background. He is good with his hands as he is with his feet. His unique and uncanny striking ability makes him an exciting fighter to watch. Holloway too is adept on his feet. Blessed knows how to pick his shots and when he lands, he does so cleanly and effectively. Just watch his UFC 199 bout against Ricardo Lamas and you can see how good Holloway has become. With both fighters preferring to fight on their feet, this could end up as one of the better fights of the year.

Pettis has a three inch reach advantage while Holloway is an inch taller and four year younger. Offensively, Holloway lands 3.07 more strikes lander per minute but absorbs 1.36 more per 60 seconds. Pettis’ 57% striking defense may be too lax against a surging Holloway. Pettis looked good against Barboza in his featherweight debut but we don’t know what the long term effects of the weight class drop would be. Holloway’s been at featherweight forever and he will be more effective in a five round war. We’re picking Max Holloway to win by unanimous decision or late stoppage.