Tag Archives: UFC betting

UFC 206: Donald Cerrone vs. Matt Brown Odds and Prediction

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Barring any fight week shocker, Donald Cerrone’s finally going to fight.

First it was his original UFC 205 opponent Robbie Lawler who pulled out of their high profile bout. Then replacement opponent Kelvin Gastelum missed weight badly and was unceremoniously removed from UFC 205. The result? Cerrone was left without an opponent and a fight at the UFC’s historic Madison Square Garden debut.  The UFC then rescheduled Cerrone with a fight at the next event- UFC 206 in Canada. And Cowboy’s consolation prize? The Immortal Matt Brown.

Legit Welterweight

2016 has been a new beginning for Donald Cerrone. After failing to win the UFC Lightweight title from Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC on Fox 17th last December, Cerrone made the move to welterweight. While some quarters questioned his decision to go up to the 170 pound division, Cowboy has proved himself as a legitimate welterweight. Three straight stoppage wins over Alex Oliveira, Patrick Cote and Rick Story have put Cowboy to #5 in the welterweight rankings.

After seven straight wins in the UFC, Matt Brown has struggled fighting against the promotion’s top rated welterweights. Losses to Johny Hendricks, Robbie Lawler, Demian Maia and Jake Ellenberger have given the Immortal a 1-4 record in his last five bouts and has dropped him to #14 in the rankings. With his UFC career seemingly on the line, Matt Brown will have to bring out his A game to halt the streaking Cowboy.

No Longer Immortal

While Donald Cerrone is on his way up the welterweight ladder, Matt Brown has been there but no longer there. As we said earlier, he’s lost 4 of 5 and his UFC career may be dependent on what happens in this fight. In his most recent fight, Brown was knocked out by Jake Ellenberger in the first round. But more than another defeat, Brown fought so lackluster that we wonder what’s left in his tank. One thing is certain though, Brown is no longer immortal. The clock may be ticking on him and this could be the ‘passing of the torch’ kind of fight.

Cerrone is the bookmakers’ favorite to beat Brown. Cowboy is currently a -270 favorite over Brown who is at +205 . Despite being on a losing skid, Matt Brown is fairly a better striker than Cowboy, at least that’s what the stats say. While Cowboy lands more significant strikes per minute at 4.1 vs 3.62, Brown is the more accurate striker at 53% striking accuracy against Cerrone’s 48%. Defensively, Brown absorbs less strikes per minute at 2.46 versus 3.81 for Cowboy.

Outside the numbers though, Cerrone’s recent stoppage wins over Patrick Cote and Rick Story make us wonder if Brown’s statistical advantages will hold at UFC 206. Cerrone has looked invincible lately and he seems to be in a better place physically, mentally and stylistically than Matt Brown. In what looks to be an offensive showdown, Matt Brown cannot outgun Donald Cerrone as Cowboy simply has too many weapons to beat him. Look for Donald Cerrone to win by unanimous decision or a third round submission.

UFC Fight Night Melbourne: Robert Whitaker vs. Derek Brunson Odds and Pick

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With Luke Rockhold pulling out, UFC Fight Night Melbourne got a new main event. And good for the fans, one of their own will be fighting in the headliner of this November 26th event.

7th ranked Robert Whitaker faces #8 Derek Brunson in a battle of middleweight dark horses. With the likes of Rockhold, Yoel Romero and Jacare Souza getting more attention, these two fighters are probably the sleepers in Michael Bisping’s weight class. While not much attention given to them, these two have slowly built serious reputation in one of the UFC’s most talent laden division. The winner of this bout is definitely headed for bigger fights while the loser goes back to scratch.

Too Close To Call?

Derek Brunson is the favorite at -150. Robert Whitaker is pegged at +125, so this is basically a pick’em bout. Both fighters are riding high on a five-fight winning streak, but Brunson has been more impressive with four consecutive first round knockout victories.

After being known as a grinding wrestler early in his career, Derek Brunson has developed his striking skills. In fact, he’s evolved into a serious knockout artist and his current winning run is proof of that. Whitaker also possesses heavy hands, but in terms of genuine, one-punch knockout ability, it’s Brunson who has the edge.

Brunson’s Advantages

Whitaker is the busier striker with a 4.95 significant strikes landed per minute average as compared to Brunson’s 2.94. But he also absorbs more strikes per minute at 4.07 versus Brunson’s 2.24. Both are nearly as accurate with their striking with Brunson having a 44% to 40% advantage. But the key in this fight should be Brunson’s length. The American has a significant 4-inch reach advantage over his opponent.

Derek Brunson’s Division II NCAA wrestling background gives him another edge over Whitaker. He averages 3.58 takedowns landed per 15 minutes while Whitaker only lands 0.61 over the same period. Whitaker though has significantly improved his takedown defense in recent years. He’s given up only one takedown in his last five bouts. But if this fight goes to the ground, it’s definitely the more experienced Brunson who has the edge.

Whitaker vs. Brunson Prediction

What’s going for Whitaker though is the fact that this fight is in Australia. Fighting in front of his home crowd has brought out the best of Whitaker. In his UFC career, Whitaker is 4-0 in Australia and that includes his The Ultimate Fighter Smashes victory in 2012. Both fighters have significantly improved from the first time we saw them compete inside the Octagon. But at this stage of their careers, Derek Brunson is the more complete fighter. Whitaker is going to make this a good fight. But Brunson’s power is going to win this for him.

UFC Fight Night 99: Gegard Mousasi vs. Uriah Hall Betting Odds And Prediction

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Gegard Mousasi looks to improve on his current winning run as he faces Uriah Hall at UFC Fight Night 99 in Belfast.

Moving Up The Ladder

Mousasi’s coming off a stoppage of former champion Vitor Belfort and has gone 5-1 in his last 6 bouts. The only blemish on his record during this stretch has been his 2015 knockout loss to Uriah Hall at UFC Fight Night 75. Now Mousasi not only has an opportunity to avenge that loss, he also has the chance to improve his current standing as one of the middleweight division’s top contenders. The Dream Catcher is currently ranked 5th in his weight class and a win over the 10th ranked Hall will surely boost his stock.

Surprisingly A Big Underdog

Surprisingly, Hall opened as a big underdog to Mousasi despite beating him in their first encounter. Mousasi opened as a -500 favorite while Hall a +325 underdog for the rematch. This is the same scenario during their first bout where Mousasi was a -350 who went as high as -725 during fight night. Back then, Hall was a live underdog who won five of his last six bouts. This time around, Primetime is coming off back to back defeats to Robert Whitaker and Derek Brunson. With the fight two weeks away, Mousasi has remained at -500 while Hall has fallen back at +476.

More Complete Fighter

Between the two, Mousasi is the better all-around fighter. Nothing exceptional about Mousasi’s game except the fact that he’s skilled in almost every aspect of MMA. He’s a very good kickboxer, an underrated wrestler and has smooth submission skills. Hall meanwhile is the flashier athlete who’s always got that puncher’s ( or kicker’s) chance. But despite being one of the top prospects when he first came out, Hall has never put up a serious run and has been beaten by mediocre opposition in the past.

Better Striking Defense

In the striking department, both average almost the same number of strikes per minute with Mousasi at 3.67 and Hall at 3.13. Similarly both have near identical accuracy at 52% vs 50% in favor of Hall. The difference though is defense as Mousasi stops 69% of his opponent’s strikes while Hall defends just 55% of them. Translated to significant strikes, Hall takes more punishment per minute at 2.88 strikes against Mousasi’s 1.17. The difference there could spell a unanimous decision win for Mousasi.

Not A Threat

While Hall is a threat with his flashy kicks and punches, he isn’t so much on the ground. In fact, he only averages 0.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Mousasi meanwhile is more active at 1.2 submissions attempted per three rounds. Hall doesn’t also have an impressive takedown average, landing just 41% of his attempts. On the other hand, Mousasi is better at 61%. The differences aren’t much but if you take a look at them, they could spell the difference in this bout. Mousasi has well-timed takedowns and even if he doesn’t convert them to submission, these can win him rounds.

The Pick

Uriah Hall will always be a dangerous opponent because of his athleticism. But knowing what happened in their first bout, Gegard Mousasi will adjust. Unless he gets nailed by another spinning back kick, he’s going to wear Uriah Hall down round after round. He can do it by jabbing away at him or taking him down on the ground. Look for Mousasi to win on points and don’t be surprised if he wins every round of this bout.

UFC 206: Anthony Pettis vs. Max Holloway Odds and Preview

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After calling out each other last month via Twitter, Anthony Pettis and Max Holloway are headed for a high level featherweight showdown at UFC 206.

The UFC announced the fight on October 26th:

Moving Down To Featherweight

Pettis is coming off an impressive featherweight debut at UFC on Fox 21 last August, where he submitted submission master Charles Oliveira in three rounds. Prior to that, Showtime lost three fights in a row at lightweight. That losing skid forced the former UFC Lightweight champion to move down in weight and fight at 145 pounds.

The win over Oliveira moved Pettis from #5 in Lightweight to #6 in Featherweight. It also installed him as one of the favorite contenders in the weight class whose title belt has been held hostage by reigning champion, Conor McGregor.

On A Hot Streak

On a nine-fight winning streak, Max Holloway certainly deserves a crack at the featherweight title. Holloway is coming off a decision win over Top 5 featherweight Ricardo Lamas at UFC 199 and has beaten the likes of Jeremy Stephens, Charles Oliveira and Cub Swanson during his winning run. The last time Holloway lost was in 2013 and that was to Conor McGregor.

Holloway would have loved to avenge that loss but McGregor is busy fighting for the Lightweight belt at UFC 205. With interim champion Jose Aldo busy with his squabble with the UFC, ‘Blessed’ said that he was willing to settle for Anthony Pettis instead. Pettis responded to that challenge by alluding to a UFC 205 bout but while that was denied, the two are headed to the co-main event of UFC 206 in Toronto.

Who The Odds Are Picking

Holloway has opened as a slight -160 favorite over Pettis, who comes in at +125.

Blessed’s impressive winning run has certainly left a good impression on him. Also, Holloway is the more experienced guy in this weight class, having fought here throughout his UFC career. Though Pettis proved he can make weight and beat a contender like Oliveira, he remains untested against the regulars of his new weight class.

Betting odds at sites like Bovada are also giving this fight a -245 for going over 2.5 rounds and a +175 for ending in less than 2.5 rounds which means that Pettis and Holloway are likely to go the full route.