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UFC on Fox 29 Odds and Prediction: Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown

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Former interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit faces fellow veteran Matt Brown in a welterweight scrap that will serve as the co-main event for UFC on Fox 29 on April 14th, 2018 at the GIla River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.

Not Yet Done

Condit’s reputation as one of the best in this generation is already set in stone. But the former interim UFC welterweight champion isn’t done yet with his MMA career.

Condit hopes to break out of a three-fight losing streak, the longest such streak of his decorated career. Most recently, Condit lost via unanimous decision to Neil Magny at UFC 219. Prior to that, the Natural Born Killer was submitted by Demian Maia at UFC on Fox 21 and also dropped a five-round thriller against then UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler at UFC 195.

Brown was almost surely headed for retirement after a lackluster 2016 which saw him lose thrice, all via stoppage.

After suffering a third round submission loss to Demian Maia at UFC 198, Brown was knocked out by Jake Ellenberger at UFC 201 and by Donald Cerrone at UFC 206. But after announcing that his November bout against Diego Sanchez would be his swansong bout, Brown came out victorious in a Performance of the Night outing and has since put his retirement plans on hold.

A Tough Pick

This potential Fight of the Year candidate is an even fight. Both fighters are currently at -110 and given their recent struggles, it’s hard to pick who’s in better shape at this stage of their careers.

Condit is a very dangerous fighter, with one punch knockout power and 11 submissions to his credit. Twenty eight of his 30 wins have come via stoppage so, don’t expect him to try and win this fight on points.

The Natural Born Killer is an excellent striker, owing to his kickboxing background. Despite losing his last four decisions, he has the stamina to be effective in the latter rounds. Giving up on Condit right now isn’t really a good idea although it’s clear that he’s no longer the fighter that beat Nick Diaz to become interim welterweight champion.

Volume of Strikes

Like Condit, Brown has been on a rough patch as of late. But he has been able to come out of it last November with an emphatic win over Diego Sanchez. Like Condit, Brown is also a violent striker who has good accuracy.

Six of his last seven wins have been by knockout so it’s not unusual to expect for one here. Brown’s takedown defense has improved in recent years. In fact, he’s never been taken down since 2013. Having said that, this bout is likely to be decided on the feet.

This one’s a hard pick really but given their most recent performances, it does appear that Matt Brown has more fight left in him than Condit. Brown can trade blows with Condit and his takedown defense should also hold against the Natural Born Killer. This one should go down to volume of strikes and because of that, we’re going with Matt Brown. We’re picking Matt Brown to beat Carlos Condit.

UFC on Fox 29 Odds and Prediction: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

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Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje meet at the main event of UFC on Fox 29 on April 14th, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.

Poirier is coming off an impressive third round victory over former WEC and UFC lightweight champion Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis at UFC Fight Night 120. Moving two fight backward, Poirier beat Jim Miller via majority decision at UFC 208 and his fight with Eddie Alvarez at UFC 211 ended in a no-contest after Alvarez landed illegal knees.

Ranked 5th in the UFC lightweight division, Poirier hopes to move one fight closer to a first ever title shot with a win over Justin Gaethje.

More Polished

Gaethje took the UFC by storm with a violent and scintillating win over Michael Johnson at the TUF 25 Finale. But the Highlight was taken down to earth after being stopped in the third round of his slugfest with Eddie Alvarez at UFC 218.

Despite his 1-1 UFC record, the former WSOF lightweight champion is one of the most exciting fighters owing to his devil may care attitude. Both of Gaethje’s bouts have been named as Fight of the Night winners.

This one’s a pick ‘em fight with the more polished Poirier the slight favorite at -140 and the offensive minded Gaethje the underdog at +120. The Diamond is the more complete fighter here with the more variety of strikes and better accuracy.

He also has a good ground and pound game should this fight go to the canvass. Since losing to Conor McGregor in 2014, Poirier has lost just once and he will without doubt be coming with a lot of confidence to Glendale.

No Defense

Gaethje is without question the most violent man in the promotion. The Highlight throws a lot of punches and tries to overwhelm his opponents with volume and power. He also has wrestling background dating back to his high school days.

Given his power and striking ability, it’s tempting to consider picking Gaethje and the plus money over Poirier. But based on his two UFC bouts, his defense hasn’t been that good, if it exists at all. Gaethje simply wants to fight toe to toe and hope he drops his opponent first. That won’t work against a skilled fighter like Dustin Poirier.

If Poirier doesn’t get caught in a phone booth affair, this is going to be an easy fight for him. He can fight Gaethje at a distance all day or he can take him to the ground and make him uncomfortable. Either way, it’s hard not to choose Poirier. He’s so much better overall.

We’re picking Dustin Poirier to beat Justin Gaethje.

UFC Fight Night 127 Odds and Prediction: Jimi Manuwa vs. Jan Blachowicz

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Jimi Manuwa and Jan Blachowicz run back their 2015 bout at UFC Fight Night 127 on March 17th, 2018 at the O2 Arena in London, England.

Manuwa beat Blachowicz via unanimous decision when they first met at UFC Fight Night 64 in Blachowicz’s home country of Poland. This time around, the pair will square off one more time and it will be Jimi Manuwa’s turn to host Blachowicz in his native United Kingdom.

Manuwa is 17-3 but has split his last six bouts. He is coming off of a July defeat to Volkan Oezdemir and he is hoping to avoid back to back losses for the first time in his MMA career.

Likewise, Blachowicz has won just half of his last eight bouts. Unlike Manuwa, though, he is coming off a December victory over Jared Cannonier.

A Stand Up Battle

Manuwa is the favorite here at -200 while Blachowicz came back as a solid +160 underdog at Bovada. Poster Boy is fighting at home and when he does, his record is an almost perfect 16-1. His only loss in England came against Alexander Gustafsson and that was way back in 2014. But it’s not only because of home court advantage that Manuwa is favored in this bout.

In their first bout, Manuwa won the fight by outlanding Blachowicz 81-58 in total strikes landed. There were no takedowns during that fight and in a stand up battle, Manuwa vs Blachowicz is a no-contest in favor of Jimi Manuwa.

15 of Manuwa’s 20 fights have ended in a knockout so his fighting style is no secret.  Manuwa is a striker who has one punch knockout power. As to his ground game, well he only has three takedowns in his UFC career. So for as long as he can keep this fight on his feet, beating Jan Blachowicz again is no problem.

Same Fight, Same Result

Blachowicz is the more balanced fighter between the two but he can’t keep up with Manuwa in the striking game. Manuwa simply has much powerful hands. For Blachowicz to win this fight, he must take Manuwa to the mat and wear him down. If he is able to do that, things can get very interesting.

But since their 2015 bout, nothing much has changed. So if Manuwa was able to avoid getting taken down three years ago, he can do so again in this rematch. And if the fight is relegated to a striking battle, it’s Manuwa who’s going to stand out.

This will be the same fight as before and the result is going to the same too. We’re picking Jimi Manuwa to win this bout by stoppage.

UFC Fight Night 127: Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Volkov Odds and Prediction

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Fabricio Werdum and Alexander Volkov square off in a battle of former champions from rival promotions.

Former Champions

The former UFC Heavyweight champion Werdum and the former Bellator Heavyweight champion Volkov will headline UFC Fight Night 127 (also known as UFC London) on March 17th, 2018 at the O2 Arena in London, England.

Currently ranked #3 in the UFC’s heavyweight division, Werdum will be looking for his third straight win. He is 3-1 since losing the UFC heavyweight title to Stipe Miocic in 2016, with his unanimous decision loss to Alistair Overeem in July 2017 the only blot in his resume in his last four bouts. Werdum has a professional MMA record of 23-7-1.

Tough To Pick

Volkov, meanwhile, is looking to stay unbeaten since moving over to the UFC in 2016. The 29-year old has beaten Timothy Johnson, Roy Nelson and Stefan Struve in his first three bouts with the UFC. Volkov is currently ranked #7 in the standings and is 29-6 in his MMA career. A  victory over Werdum should put Volkov in the Top 5 and include him in title conversations.

This one’s going to be tough to pick. Werdum is the favorite here at -205 at Bovada, while Volkov is the underdog at +165.

Despite being almost 41-years old, Werdum remains one of the best in the business. As he’s gotten older, Werdum’s striking has improved and he’s shown the ability to finish fights on his feet. However, it’s his grappling and ground game that make him unique in his weight class.

Best Submission Artist

Werdum is a top tier Brazilian Jiu Jitsu expert. He’s won wrestling medals,  BJJ championships and has 11 MMA wins by submission. Werdum is considered as the best submission artist in the history of the heavyweight  division and will have a huge advantage if this fight goes down to the canvass.

Volkov is comfortable on the ground but he is a striker at heart. 19 of his victories have been by knockout and he has been accurate with his strikes in his first three UFC bouts. He’s a very active fighter who has a top notch ground and pound game if he gets to top position the mat.

Not An Easy Fight

It’s not going to be an easy fight for Werdum. Volkov has the advantage in striking and given his edge in reach and size, he has the ability to strike from the outside and avoid getting taken down by Werdum. If Werdum can’t take him down, Volkov would be content with fighting him at a distance and walking away with a decision.

But if Werdum gets him to the ground, it’s going to be another story. The Brazilian is going to wear down Volkov and take him to deep waters. Volkov has gotten the better of strikers in his young UFC career. But we’re not sure whether he has what it takes to prevent the best submission artist in the weight class from taking him down.

We’re picking Fabricio Werdum to pick up the victory here.

UFC on Fox 28: Ovince St. Preux vs. Ilir Latifi Odds and Prediction

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Ovince St. Preux and Ilir Latifi finally collide at UFC on Fox 28 on February 24th, 2018 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

These two light heavyweight contenders were supposed to fight each other at UFC on Fox 27 but Latifi pulled out of that bout with an undisclosed injury. But after Yoel Romero vs. David Branch was pulled out from the Orlando event, the St. Preux vs. Latifi showdown was reset.

Getting What He Asked For

St. Preux is on a three-fight winning streak, earning post fight bonuses in each of his last two wins. In his most recent bout, OSP knocked out Corey Anderson via head kick at UFC 217. Prior to that, St. Preux won back to back fights by Von Flue choke. OSP had three straight losses before this current streak.

Latifi is 4-1 in his last five bouts. He is coming off a unanimous decision win over Tyson Pedro at UFC 215. Prior to that victory, Latifi lost via knockout to Ryan Bader. The 34-year old Swedish fighter hoped to keep keep his fight with St. Preux despite the injury. He’s getting what he asked for.

A Powerful Striker

St. Preux is the slight underdog here (-125 at Realbet.eu), while Latifi opens as a mild favorite at -105. OSP is a big strong athlete who has recorded finishes in eight of his last nine wins. He is a powerful striker with an 80 inch reach advantage. St. Preux is looking to win four fights in a row since 2013 and is coming off back to back performance of the night honors.

Likewise, Latifi is a powerful striker who has recorded knockouts due to punches in three of his last five victories. He is also comfortable on the ground with four submission wins and four takedowns landed in his last fight. But against an aggressive striker like OSP, his chin may not hold.

Has Momentum Going

Latifi fought just once last year and is giving up seven inches in reach to St. Preux. If those advantages aren’t enough, OSP finished 2017 strong and has momentum going his way. St. Preux has the advantage on his feet as he is going to test not just Latifi’s defense butt his chin as well.

If Latifi decides to take this fight to the ground, OSP also has a good ground game. St. Preux has recorded six career wins by submission so Latifi can’t take him lightly on the canvass. Having said that, Ovince St. Preux has the advantage here, either way. He’s going to continue to climb the standings and pick up another win here. We’re picking Ovince St. Preux to pick up his fourth straight win.

UFC Fight Night 125 : John Dodson vs. Pedro Munhoz Prediction

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A bantamweight bout between John Dodson and Pedro Munhoz has been added to UFC Fight Night 125 on February 3rd, 2018 at the Arena Guilherme Paraense in Belem, Brazil.

Dodson enters this fight with a 20-9 record with half of his wins by knockout. Dodson fought for the UFC flyweight belt twice but on both occasions, he got beaten soundly by Demetrious Johnson.

Opposite Fortunes

Following the second loss to Mighty Mouse, Dodson returned to bantamweight but he hasn’t been as successful there either. Dodson has alternated wins and losses since his return to 135 pounds. In his most recent bout, Dodson dropped a split decision loss to Marlon Moraes.

While Dodson has been struggling as of late, Munhoz has been on a roll. Since losing to Jimmie Rivera by split decision at UFC Fight Night 77 in 2015, he’s won four fights in a row. Three wins have come via guillotine submission and all three submission wins  have earned him Performance of the Night honors.

Despite their recent fortunes, Dodson is still ranked higher than Munhoz in the UFC’s bantamweight ladder. The Magician currently sits at #8 in the division while Munhoz is still at #10. However, a win here by the Brazilian could change his fortunes.

Prediction

This is a battle of styles because Dodson has knockout power while Munhoz is the submission expert. Given that, something has to give here and if we were to pick a winner, we’re going with Munhoz who is on a winning streak. Given his current form, Munhoz can and will take this fight to the ground where he will have the clear advantage over Dodson.

Munhoz is also 6-1 when fighting in his backyard so that’s going to play some part too. While Dodson has knockout power, he has not scored a knockout since halting John Moraga in 2014. Dodson has also just won twice in his last two bout and while he’s never lost two in a row in his career, this could be the first time.

Munhoz is going to drag this fight to the ground and he’s going to punish Dodson there. If he’s not going to get the submission, Munhoz is going to grind out a solid win here. We’re picking Pedro Munhoz to beat John Dodson.

Francis Ngannou Opens As Favorite Against Stipe Miocic

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UFC Heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic will defend his belt against #1 contender Francis Ngannou at UFC 220 in Boston on January 20th, 2018.

The UFC made the bout official last week:

Winning The Belt Easier Than Keeping It

Since losing to Junior Dos Santos in 2014, Miocic has won five fights in a row – all by knockout. After his five round war with Mark Hunt at UFC Fight Night 65, Miocic has not let any opponent get past round one.

Miocic became the #1 contender by dusting Andrei Arlovski in just 54 seconds. Then he won the belt by knocking out Fabricio Werdum in 2:47. Miocic then successfully defended the belt twice, stopping Alistair Overeem in 4:27 and avenging the loss to Dos Santos in 2:22 during his last octagon appearance at UFC 211.

Winning the UFC heavyweight belt is easier than keeping it, though. No champion in the history of the UFC’s heavyweight division has ever defended the title more than twice. Should he go on to defeat Ngannou, the 35-year old Miocic will set the record for most consecutive title defenses. But, of course, that’s easier said than done.

A Fellow Knockout Artist

Like Miocic, fellow knockout artist Francis Ngannou has been on a tear. Since joining the UFC two years ago, the Cameroonian born striker has built a record of 6-0 with five victories coming by knockout and one by submission.

Of his five KO wins, four have come in the very first round. In his most recent Octagon appearance, Ngannou literally put Alistair Overeem to sleep at UFC 218 last December 2nd by knocking out the former Strikeforce and K-1 champion in just 1:47.

With that scintillating performance against Reem, the UFC’s backing (Dana White said he’s going to be champion someday) and otherworldly punching power, Ngannou has opened as a rather surprising favorite over the champion at -150. The reigning champion came back at +120 in what is going to go down as one of the most exciting heavyweight title bout in years.

Who Lands Big First

Ngannou appears to be the more powerful puncher but let’s not forget that Miocic may be the best technical striker in the UFC’s heavyweight division. The champion is excellent in controlling the distance of the fight, enabling him to dictate the pace and the terms of engagement.

Miocic is also a former D-1 wrestler so you’ve got to think that he’s got the edge in grappling over his challenger. But when you got two very powerful punchers squaring off against each other, that or any other technical aspect of the game will hardly matter. It’s going to go down to who lands his big bomb first.

UFC 219: Cris Cyborg vs. Holly Holm Odds and Prediction

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Cris Cyborg will defend the UFC women’s featherweight belt against Holly Holm at UFC 219 on December 30th, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.

The bout has been declared as the main event for UFC 219, ending speculation that Irish superstar Conor McGregor is going to make an appearance at the UFC’s final event of the year.

Odds Favor Cyborg

Cyborg won the featherweight belt after easily outclassing Tonya Evinger at UFC 214. The two fought for the vacant title after Germaine De Randamie forfeited the crown after beating Holly Holm at UFC 208. Holm, meanwhile, rebounded from the loss and defeated Bethe Correia in her next fight.

Cyborg is the favorite here at -334 while Holm is the underdog at +250. The line may look surprising to some especially those who say that Holm is moving up in weight to face a bigger Cyborg. But then Holm has fought before at higher weights. She fought as junior welterweight and welterweight as a boxer and kickboxer.

Two Elite Strikers

In MMA, Holly Holm fought as a bantamweight but she moved up to featherweight to face Germaine De Randamie at UFC 208 for the inaugural UFC women’s featherweight title. Holm lost that bout but controversially so, because she was on the receiving end of punches after the bell at the end of rounds two and three.

Cyborg vs. Holm is a battle between two elite strikers and when you have two powerful ladies like these squaring off against each other, all it takes is one strike to win the fight. Holm is the more disciplined fighter between the two and is slightly longer in reach. She has never been knocked out in her MMA career, but she also has never faced a monster like Cris Cyborg before.

On Another Level

Cyborg puts on a relentless pace and won’t stop until she sees her opponent down and out.

We saw some of her striking weaknesses when she sparred Olympic champion Claressa Shields and knowing that Holm is a world champion boxer you think she’d have Cyborg’s number in the stand up. Not only does Cyborg have to watch out for Holm’s punches, but she also has to be wary of Holly’s kicks. Holm uses leg kicks better than any fighter in the sport.

But Cyborg is on another level in terms of power and aggression. It’s these that’s going to make the difference here. Both fighters are going to land their shots in this fight. Each will have her moments and despite the power between these two, it’s hard to see a quick ending.

Both are durable and have good defense so this fight is likely going to go past round three. After the midway point though, Cyborg’s power and pressure should wear down Holm. If she doesn’t get a late stoppage, Cris Cyborg is going to win this by unanimous decision.

UFC Fight Night Night: Robbie Lawler vs. Rafael Dos Anjos Odds and Prediction

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Robbie Lawler and Rafael Dos Anjos collide at the main event of UFC on Fox 26 on December 16th, 2017 at the Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg, Manitoba.

Lawler is coming off a victory over Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone at UFC 214, while Dos Anjos is has won two fights in a row since moving up to welterweight. The former UFC lightweight king defeated Tarec Saffiedine by unanimous decision in his welterweight debut and then submitted Neil Magny at UFC 215 in his most recent bout.

To sweeten the pot, UFC President Dana White has announced that the winner of this contest will get the next title shot against Tyron Woodley.

Tough Call

Lawler opened as the -160 favorite while Dos Anjos was the underdog at +120 when the lines opened. Since then, the line has gotten closer at -120 for Lawler and even money +100 for Dos Anjos.

This is a tough call really and should be a pick ‘em fight. Lawler has the sure advantage in size and punching power but to his credit, Dos Anjos has managed to keep up with the big boys at 170. RDA was able to hang with Saffiedine for three rounds and he showed that he can use his submission skills against bigger foes like Magny.

Statistically, both are even in the striking department with Lawler averaging 3.57 significant strikes landed per minute and Dos Anjos at 3.37. In terms of accuracy, Lawler also has the slight edge at 45% against 42%. Defensively, RDA’s strike defense is a little better at 65% against Ruthless’ 61%.

Going To The Ground

On the ground, Dos Anjos has a huge edge in offense. He averages 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes while Lawler only has a 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dos Anjos also averages 0.9 submissions per 15 minutes while Lawler’s submission game is almost non-existent.

With this advantage, it’s wise for Dos Anjos to take his chances against Lawler on the mat rather than on his feet. Sure, RDA is no slouch as a striker but Lawler has otherworldly punching power and durability. He’s faced much bigger men and withstood their punches, while at the same time dishing out his own punishment.

One thing going for Dos Anjos, though, is that Lawler’s last defeat was a first round KO against Tyron Woodley. So, perhaps because Ruthless has aged, his armor may not be what it once was. However, it’s still risky to try if that is indeed the case. You know that if Lawler connects with his punches, it’s going to be a quick night for Dos Anjos.

Power and Durability

Having said those, it’s Robbie Lawler’s punching power and durability that should stand out here. Dos Anjos has fought only twice as a welterweight and he’s never seen a big power hitter like Robbie Lawler.

Lawler’s takedown defense isn’t really elite at 69% but against a smaller guy (Lawler is three inches taller and four inches longer), he should stuff RDA’s takedown attempts. Dos Anjos does have excellent striking and can match Lawler’s firepower. But it remains to be seen how he will be once Lawler connects one clean punch.

It’s going to be a chess match early with Dos Anjos using his smarts to avoid Lawler’s bombs. But eventually, Lawler is going to catch up with Dos Anjos. He’s going to swarm RDA and make him back pedal. In the championship rounds, Lawler is going to connect that one big punch that will decide the outcome of this contest. We’re picking Robbie Lawler to win by knockout after three rounds.

UFC Fight Night 120: Anthony Pettis vs. Dustin Poirier Odds and Prediction

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Former UFC Lightweight Anthony Pettis returns to the octagon at the main event of UFC Fight Night 120 at the Ted Constant Convocation Center at Norfolk, Virginia on November 11th, 2017.  The 13th ranked Pettis will face 8th ranked lightweight Dustin Poirier in an attempt to climb back to the top of the 155-pound weight class he used to rule.

Fall From The Top

Pettis’ fall from the top  is well documented. After yielding the UFC lightweight title to Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 185, Pettis lost back to back bouts to Edson Barboza and Eddie Alvarez, forcing him to make a surprise move down to the featherweight division. But after missing weight during an interim featherweight title bout (which he lost badly) against Max Holloway at UFC 206, Pettis decided to return to his natural weight class.

Showtime’s 155-pound return against Jim Miller at UFC 216 last July was successful. Not only did he break out of his slump, he looked like the Anthony Pettis of old in that fight. But Pettis’ recent struggles have pulled him down outside the Top 10 in the rankings. He asked for Poirier in August and with the “Diamond” obliging, the UFC booked the fight right away.

Controversial Fight

Dustin Poirier is coming off a controversial fight at UFC 211 against another former lightweight champion in Eddie Alvarez. That bout ended in a no-contest after Alvarez landed several illegal knees on Poirier. Prior to that fight, Poirier won five of six fights, losing only to Michael Johnson during that stretch.

Poirier has always been one of the gatekeepers of the division. If he can pick up a win though against a former champion like Pettis, his stock will surely soar. Diamond has been fighting in the UFC since 2011 but has never fought for the title. A win over Pettis should put him in striking distance of that long awaited title shot.

Odds and Prediction

Showtime Pettis is the favorite in this bout at -125 while Poirier is the underdog at +105. This is going to be a fun fight between two fighters who can finish the fight on the feet as well as on the ground. Both are excellent strikers who can produce knockouts in the stand up game and come up with creative submission moves on the canvass. Having said that, this fight is likely not going to the scorecards.

Both fighters are evenly matched up but Pettis is more athletic and may have the advantage here because of his creativity. Showtime looked great in his last fight and he seems to have broken out of his slump. Poirier is no easy picking but Pettis should win this fight with his speed and unpredictability.

We’re picking Anthony Pettis to win this fight by stoppage due to strikes.