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UFC Fight Night 115: Will the Skyscraper Remain Unbeaten in Rotterdam?

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Stefan Struve is unbeaten in Rotterdam. In 2008, Struve submitted Ralf Wonnik via armbar in just 15 seconds. Two fights ago at UFC Fight Night 87, Struve knocked out Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva in just 16 seconds.

On September 2nd, 2017, Struve looks to add yet another spectacular win in front of his countrymen as he faces Alexander Volkov in the main event of UFC Fight Night 115 at Ahoy Rotterdam in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

The Skyscraper

Struve is known as the Skyscraper because at 7 feet, he is the tallest fighter on the UFC’s roster. After losing three of four fights, Struve had a good 2016 where he went 2-0. He was supposed to fight Junior Dos Santos at UFC Fight Night 105 last February but was forced out of the bout because of a shoulder injury.

Alexander Volkov is the current M-1 Global heavyweight champion. The 28-year old Russian is a former Bellator heavyweight tournament winner and heavyweight champion. He is unbeaten in the UFC at 2-0 and he is coming off a unanimous decision win over Roy Nelson at UFC on Fox 24 last April.

Odds

Volkov is the slight favorite here at -135 and Struve is the underdog at +105 at Bovada. Not many heavyweights can stand and trade with Struve because of his height and length but in this case, Volkov can hold his own because he is 6-7 with long arms. Having said that, size may not be a factor here even if Struve is still taller. However, the big difference here is Struve’s ability to finish the fight on the ground.

Volkov has been taken down in each of his last fights and if Struve can force him to the ground, he will not only be taken out of his comfort zone but Struve will have the big advantage there. Seventeen of Struve’s 28 wins have come via submission so if he can put Volkov down, he’s got a bag of submission tricks at his disposal.

Prediction

The problem with Struve is that his chin has always been suspect. Six of his losses are by knockout and Volkov has a 65.28% KO rate with 18 KOs in 28 victories. If Volkov can stay on his feet for most of the fight, he’ll likely get the better of the Skyscraper.

Struve is 7-1 in the Netherlands and 2-0 in Rotterdam. He has always fought well in front of his countrymen and this one should be no different. Volkov is an excellent fighter but Struve is a tried and tested veteran. Of course, the four inch reach and five inch height difference is still there. And yes, Struve’s submission skills should be the key. We’re picking Stefan Struve to pull of the upset by decision or submission.

Brandon Moreno vs Sergio Pettis: Which Flyweight Will Continue To Surge?

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Two surging flyweights will headline the UFC’s return to Mexico City on August 5th, 2017 as Sergio Pettis takes on Brandon Moreno in the main event of UFC Fight Night 114 at the Mexico City Arena in Mexico City, Mexico.

Showtime’s Brother

Sergio Pettis is the younger brother of former UFC Lightweight titleholder Anthony Pettis. The 8th ranked Pettis will put his three-fight winning streak on the line against a fighter ranked just one spot below him. Since his upset loss to Ryan Benoit during his flyweight debut at UFC 185, Pettis has recorded wins over Chris Cariaso, Chris Kelades and John Moraga.

Pettis started his UFC career at bantamweight and after going 3-1 with a pair of Fight of the Night bonuses. Prior to the UFC he competed in the Resurrection Fighting Alliance promotion and the North American Fighting Championships. He was the first RFA Flyweight champion and a former NAFC Bantamweight champion.

First Headliner

Ninth ranked Brandon Moreno has racked up 11 consecutive wins, including 8 stoppages, after starting his MMA career with a 3-3 record. Moreno is 3-0 in the UFC with two victories by submission and two post fight bonuses. In his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 96 last October, Moreno submitted Luis Smolka. Two months later, he beat Ryan Benoit by split decision and then choked out Dustin Ortiz at UFC Fight Night 108 in Nashville.

Moreno has forced 7 of his last 9 opponents to tap out so you’ve got to look out for his submission skills here. This will be Moreno’s fourth fight in his birthplace of Mexico City and his first in Mexico under the UFC banner. This is also the first time in his career that he will be headlining a UFC event.

Odds

This one’s pretty much interesting with Moreno a slight -140 favorite against Pettis who is at +120. These are two young and hungry up and comers who would like to push their careers to the Top 5 and position themselves for a possible title shot.

Moreno averages 3.2 takedowns and 2.3 submissions per fifteen minutes and those show you how he wants to fight. He’s very good on the ground and he has excellent submission skills. In his most recent fight against Dustin Ortiz, Moreno was taken down four times, yet he still was able to submit Ortiz. Pettis can hold his own against Moreno on the ground but he’d rather have this fight on its feet where he averages 4.02 significant strikes per 15 minutes.

Prediction

Sergio Pettis’ ground game has shown some improvement lately but he might not want to test it against a very good submission artist like Brandon Moreno. Pettis will likely be content to strike against Moreno. He will utilize his leg kicks to mix with his punches. If he is going to win, it’s going to be via a decision. Pettis’ last six bouts have ended in a decision and he hasn’t stopped anyone since 2013.

For Moreno to win, he must take this fight to the canvas where he has the significant advantage. Moreno should look for takedowns more than usual and keep an aggressive pace. For Pettis to win, he must fight the perfect fight. A simple striking mistake could put him down on the mat against an excellent finisher and he doesn’t want that to happen. We’re picking Brandon Moreno to win his 12th straight fight by submission.

Chris Weidman American Flag

UFC on Fox 25: Chris Weidman vs. Kelvin Gastelum Odds and Prediction

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Chris Weidman and Kelvin Gastelum meet at the main event of UFC on Fox 25 on July 22nd, 2017 at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Uniondale, New York.

Picking Up The Pieces

After beating Anderson Silva in back to back fights, Chris Weidman’s fortunes have turned upside down. The All-American lost his middleweight title to Luke Rockhold and then he suffered two more losses to Yoel Romero and Gegard Mousasi. What made it worse for Weidman was the fact that two of those three losses came in his home state of New York. With perhaps his last chance to prove he is still an elite fighter, Weidman returns to New York to hopefully end the jinx.

No Slouch

His opponent is no slouch. Kelvin Gastelum may be physically small for the middleweight division but he fights with the biggest of hearts. Gastelum is coming off a first round KO of Vitor Belfort but that win was overturned after he tested positive for a banned substance. Prior to that bout, Gastelum collected back to back wins over Tim Kennedy and Johny Hendricks. This is only his third fight since returning to middleweight and without a doubt his biggest test so far.

No Longer The Same Fighter

Chris Weidman opened as a -150 favorite against Kelvin Gastelum’s +120. Since then, the lines have moved and Gastelum is the current odds on favorite at -140 while Weidman is now the underdog at +125. This one could go either way, really.  Both men are hungry for a victory and need one to solidify their spot in a loaded middleweight division.

The concern here for Chris Weidman is that he’s lost his last three fights by knockout and his opponent is known as a heavy puncher and a knockout artist. However, Weidman’s seven inch reach advantage and the fact that he’s a much bigger guy than Gastelum makes him a tempting pick. But if you look at recent history, Weidman’s been on the losing end three fights in a row and has now been on the losing side in every bout since May of 2015. He’s no longer the fighter he once was and could be on his way out.

Younger and Hungrier

Gastelum meanwhile is a younger and hungrier lion who’s never been in a title fight. He moved up from welterweight after being plagued with weight problems. He seems undersized for the middleweight division but he makes up for it with his toughness, tenacity and punching power. Weidman doesn’t just have the size advantage, he will also have homecourt edge. Despite those, we’re picking Kelvin Gastelum to win this one. It could be a close five round decision or Gastelum wins it early by KO. Either way, we don’t think Weidman still has it in him.

Gunnar Nelson vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio: Will Nelson Shine in The Spotlight?

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Gunnar Nelson has long fought in the shadows of his famous teammate Conor McGregor. With the Notorious one fighting outside MMA next, Nelson gets his chance to shine in the spotlight when he headlines UFC Fight Night 113 against Santiago Ponzinibbio on July 16th, 2017 at the SSE Hydro in Glasgow, Scotland.

Not A High Profile Opponent

This wasn’t the high profile fight that Gunnar Nelson would’ve wanted but he’s headlining his second UFC event. Nelson is currently 8th in the welterweight rankings and he was hoping to fight someone above him to move him closer to a title shot. Instead he faces the dangerous Santiago Ponzinibbio who is ranked 6 spots lower than him at #14.

Nelson has a 7-2 UFC record and has lost just once since 2014. He has won two in a row since losing to Demian Maia in 2015. Nelson submitted Alan Jouban in his most recent bout last March. Ponzinibbio meanwhile has put together a string of four consecutive wins. His last defeat came against Lorenz Larkin in 2013 and has won six of his last seven bouts. The TUF Brazil alumnus is looking to barge into the Top 10 and a high profile win over Nelson will get him noticed.

Identical Size, Different Styles

Gunnar Nelson is the slight favorite in this contest at -227. His opponent Ponzinibbio is currently the underdog at +175. These are two welterweights who are almost identical in size but very different in styles. Ponzinibbio is a very aggressive volume striker who lands 4.03 significant strikes per minute. Nelson meanwhile, averages just 1.98 significant strikes per minute  but has the significant advantage in grappling. The SBG Ireland product averages 1.67 takedowns per fifteen minutes while Ponzinibbio almost has a non-existent takedown game at just 0.19 per fifteen minutes.

The Prediction

Everyone knows what they’re getting with Gunnar Nelson. He’s an excellent grappler who will grind you to the ground. Gunny has won his last five bouts by submission and has earned performance of the night honors in his last two victories. Gunnar Nelson has never been finished in his career.

Ponzinibbio has never lost by submission and has finished 11 of 14 opponents so it will be interesting to see which style gives here. Look for Ponzinibbio to keep the fight standing up, with him utilizing a lot of leg kicks to score points. Nelson meanwhile will try to make this a grappling contest and force Ponzinibbio to fight on the ground where he isn’t really comfortable at. Nelson will make Ponzinibbio fight out of the clinch to limit his striking and movement. We think it’s going to be a frustrating night for Ponzinibbio.

We’re picking Gunnar Nelson to win by submission or ground and pound stoppage.

Fabricio Werdum vs. Alistair Overeem: Who Will Take The Grudge Match?

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Former UFC Heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum takes on Alistair Overeem in a battle of Top 3 UFC Heavyweights. The two will fight in the main card of UFC 213 on July 8th, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena.

Both Aiming At Another Title Shot

Werdum has won seven of his last eight fights and is coming off a win over Travis Browne at UFC 203. One fight earlier, Werdum lost the UFC Heavyweight title via first round knockout to Stipe Miocic in Brazil at UFC 198. The #1 ranked Werdum is looking for another shot at gold. A victory over the #3 ranked Overeem would almost certainly give him that.

Overeem, meanwhile, is coming off a 3rd round knockout of Mark Hunt at UFC 209. The former Strikeforce Heavyweight champion has won five of his last six bouts with his only loss coming during his title challenge against Miocic at UFC 203. Overeem’s last three victories have been by stoppage. A victory over Werdum could also lead to another title shot versus Miocic.

Breaking The Tie

This is the third fight between these two massive individuals, but their first meeting in the UFC promotion. Werdum won their first fight at Japan’s Pride Promotion in 2006 by kimura submission. Five years later, Overeem returned the favor when the two met at Strikeforce in 2011. Overeem won that fight by unanimous decision.

Fast forward another six years and they meet again in a bout that will not only break the tie but also decide which one continues with his title quest. Werdum is now 39 and Overeem 37 and this could very well be their last run at the UFC Heavyweight belt, now owned by Stipe Miocic, who owns victory over both.

Odds and Prediction

Overeem is the slight favorite here at -150, while Werdum is the underdog at +110. Eleven years after they first fought, their styles haven’t changed a lot, except perhaps for Werdum, who has developed an elite striking game. Despite that, the Brazilian still prefers to fight on the ground, where he has the advantage over every other heavyweight in the business.

Werdum’s such a great grappler and excellent submission artist and he’d rather stay down rather than strike with Overeem. Reem prefers to strike where he owns some of the most vicious kicks in the business. But that doesn’t mean he can’t fight on the ground. Nineteen of the Dutchman’s 42 wins have come by submission, so he’s no joke there either. With his versatility and the superior striking skills, we’re going with Alistair Overeem here.

Unless Werdum can take this fight to the ground, Overeem’s more diverse game makes him a good pick here.

Pick: Alistair Overeem by early  knockout or unanimous decision.

UFC 213 Odds: Yoel Romero vs Robert Whitaker Prediction

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After the confusion, a UFC middleweight title fight will be the co-main event of UFC 213. It’s not just the regular title fight, though.

Only An Interim Middleweight Title

With the UFC women’s bantamweight title fight between Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko headlining the UFC’s July 8th event, the UFC announced that an interim middleweight title bout between Yoel Romero and Robert Whitaker will serve as the appetizer:

Originally, it was believed that Michael Bisping would be defending his middleweight title belt against Georges St. Pierre at UFC 213. But GSP asked for a later date and Bisping suffered an injury so the UFC decided to come up with yet another interim title fight. So while Romero and Whitaker can finally hoist a title belt, it’s only an interim one.

Knockout Artists

This is a bout between two knockout artists. 11 of Romero’s 12 wins have been by knockout. His last Octagon appearance was a third round stoppage of Chris Weidman at UFC 205. Whitaker, meanwhile, is coming off a sensational second round knockout of Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza at UFC on Fox 24. Whitaker has won seven fights in a row since losing to Stephen Thompson. Four of those victories, including the last two, have been by stoppage.

Odds and Preview

This is as close as it gets. Current odds have Romero as a slight -130 favorite against Whitaker, who is at even money. Both these fighters need just one punch to win the bout; that’s why the odds are this tight for this interim UFC middleweight title bout. Personally, I think Whitaker has more power and is the more explosive puncher here but he’s facing a veteran who is very skilled on the ground.

Romero’s advantage is his experience. He is a former world champion and Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling so that alone speaks greatly of his grappling prowess. Romero also averages 1.96 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, which is almost four times Robert Whitaker’s average. And if you ask me, he’s going to do more of that against Whitaker who is more dangerous on his feet than on the ground. Whitaker’s takedown defense is excellent though at 91%. He stuffed all of Rafael Natal’s four takedown attempts and yielded only one of three takedowns to Jacare Souza in his most recent bout.

We’re going with Yoel Romero here despite Robert Whitaker being the more dangerous puncher. Romero’s gonna be smart enough to take this fight to the ground and work from there. Striking with Whitaker is going to be hit or miss. We’re predicting Yoel Romero to win a tough, rugged decision.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Conor McGregor Odds and Prediction

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The fight that has intrigued the world is finally on.

After more than two years of teasing, boxing’s undefeated pound for pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. and MMA’s concurrent UFC two-division champion Conor McGregor will face each other on August 26th, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Both Mayweather and McGregor made the announcement via social media. Showtime Sports, who will air the event, also officially announced the fight on Wednesday:

Impossible Now Done

Mayweather vs. McGregor looked like a dream fight when McGregor first told Conan O’Brien in 2015 that he would fight Mayweather if the opportunity was presented to him. The Irishman has never boxed, professionally or as an amateur, although he is considered one of the best strikers in the sport of MMA.

Mayweather himself was already retired and had not fought since beating Andre Berto in September of 2015 in what he called was the final bout of his storied boxing career. However, Mayweather had already retired before and has always said that he would return to the ring for a hundred million dollars. With that small opening, both camps tried to make a deal.

There have been several times in the last two years that the fight was reported to be close to being done. But it was never closer to reality than when Mayweather booked the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas for August 26th. Although it was subsequently reported that Mayweather cancelled the reservation, the fight itself was officially announced this Wednesday. What fight fans once thought was impossible is now done.

A Mismatch?

UFC President Dana White also revealed on Wednesday that Mayweather vs. McGregor will be held at the T-Mobile Arena (although there has been no official announcement on the venue) and that the bout will be fought at the boxing junior middleweight limit of 154 pounds. The pair would also use 10-ounce gloves and while White didn’t say it, it’s likely that it will be fought under pure boxing rules. McGregor has always maintained his willingness to fight Mayweather under boxing rules, although that may not be a good idea.

Put the pair in an MMA octagon with four inch gloves and McGregor will have the advantage. The Notorious has a powerful left hand that can knock anybody out, Mayweather included. But the pair will be fighting in a boxing ring where Mayweather has eluded the great boxer likes of Pacquiao, Cotto and Canelo. With that kind of real estate to work his bicycle, McGregor may find it difficult to find his target. Even Max Kellerman thinks that McGregor may not land a punch on Mayweather. That may sound like an exaggeration, but Kellerman may have at the very least meant this is a clear mismatch.

Odds and Prediction

Mayweather is a -1100 favorite to defeat McGregor, who is a sharp underdog at +700. The odds are expected to move once the Irish money starts coming in. But in reality, this line reflects the mismatch we could be seeing. Mayweather was one of boxing’s best defensive genius. He was a very smart fighter who employed the hit and run tactic like no other. If the fastest of opponents in Pacquiao and the hardest hitting in Cotto could not lay their hands on him, what chance does McGregor have?

Conor McGregor may be here primarily for the money. He’s set to make more for this single bout than what he’ll earn in his entire MMA career. But you can’t count him out because he does have punching power and speed. If his left hand connects, it’s going to be a different story. The problem is, well, if it doesn’t connect. Without his leg kicks setting up his left hand, it’s going to be a long night for Conor McGregor. Mayweather is going to dance his way to $100M. Mayweather wins this easily. No knockdowns, no dramatics. It’s just going to be a boxing lesson from the best boxer ever. Floyd Mayweather Jr. by a very very unanimous decision.

UFC Fight Night 111: Can Holly Holm Snap Out of Her Losing Streak?

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Holly Holm hopes to end a three-fight losing streak as she faces the tough Bethe Correia in the five round main event of UFC Fight Night 111 on June 17th, 2017 at the Singapore Indoor Stadium in Kallang, Singapore.

Break The Streak

A former 8-time world boxing champion, Holly Holm was on top of the MMA world in 2015 after becoming the first fighter to defeat Ronda Rousey at UFC 193 in Australia. Holm’s second round stoppage of Rousey won her the UFC women’s bantamweight title and opened up a lot of opportunities for her.

But instead of waiting for a Ronda Rousey rematch, Holm decided to fight Miesha Tate at UFC 196 in March of 2016. That turned out to be tragic, as Tate bucked the odds to submit Holm and take the title from her. Things turned for the worse as Holm lost her next bout to Valentina Shevchenko in July of 2016. She also lost to Germaine de Randamie in the first ever women’s featherweight title bout last February. With three straight losses standing in front of her, Holm looks to break the streak and get back on track.

Not The Same

Bethe Correia herself will be trying to get back on the winning track. After nine consecutive victories, she suffered her first defeat at the hands of Ronda Rousey. Since that loss, Correia has been just 1-1-1 in her last three bouts. She figured in a majority draw against Marion Reneau in her most recent bout last March. When in good form, Correia is an aggressive striker who has good combinations and excellent counter punching skills. The problem with her is that she’s never been the same since losing to Rousey, with just one win in three outings.

Same Fighting Style

Holm is the odds on favorite at -500, while Correia is the underdog at +400. But don’t let the lines deceive you. This is going to be a dogfight because both fighters have the same style. They both like to strike and employ leg kicks. Likewise, both are struggling to pick up victories in recent fights.

This may go down to who has more mental fortitude between the two. Holm and Correia look like they are shells of themselves at the moment. The big plus money on Correia is tempting but Holm does have a five inch reach advantage and may have more punching power.

With those advantages, we’re going with Holly Holm in this fight. Holly Holm is going to snap out of her losing streak with a unanimous decision win over Bethe Correia.

UFC 212 Betting: Why Claudia Gadelha Will Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz

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A women’s strawweight matchup between top contenders Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz has been added to the UFC 212 PPV event which will be held at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 3rd, 2017.

Another Title Shot For Winner

Gadelha and Kowalkiewicz are the 2nd and 3rd ranked fighters in the UFC women’s strawweight division. The two have also already faced and lost to current champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk in the past and the victor here could very well be on her way to a second crack at the world title.

Gadelha has lost twice in her career but both losses came at the hands of Jedrzejczyk and the first one, which was a non-title fight, came via close split decision. She’s 2-2 in her last four bouts but won her most recent outing via decision over Cortney Casey at UFC Fight Night 100 last November of 2016.

Kowalkiewicz meanwhile opened her UFC career with a string of three victories that included a split decision win over Rose Namajunas at UFC 201. That bout was a title eliminator and it earned her a shot at Jedrzejczyk at the monumental UFC 205 last November. Kowalkiewicz lost to her compatriot via clear unanimous decision.

Odds and Prediction

Gadelha is the favorite here at -300 while Kowalkiewicz is a +240 underdog.  The key here will be takedowns as Gadelha is a takedown machine with an average of 4.59 takedowns per fifteen minutes at an accuracy of 57.7%. Kowalkiewicz hasn’t shown any signs of a ground game in the UFC and to win this fight, she must keep it on her feet where she has the advantage.

The Polish fighter is averaging 4.56 significant strikes landed per minute as compared to Gadelha’s average of 3.59. Kowalkiewicz is a smart fighter who knows how to adjust and take what her opponent gives her. She doesn’t force the issue but is pretty effective doing it. She’s won 8 of her 11 bouts by decision, so she’s a tough girl.

Claudia Gadelha just doesn’t seem to be a good matchup for Karolina Kowalkiewicz. While Kowalkiewicz hasn’t shown any ground game, she’s been taken down thrice in her last two fights. Against Gadelha, she won’t be comfortable on the canvass. So unless she keeps the fight on her feet for fifteen minutes, I don’t see how she can topple Gadelha who hasn’t lost in Brazil.

It’s not going to be a walk in the park but we’re picking Claudia Gadelha to beat Karolina KowalKiewicz.

Misha Cirkunov vs. Volkan Oezdemir Odds and Prediction

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Misha Cirkunov and Volkan Oezdemir battle in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night Stockholm on May 28th, 2017 at the Ericsson Globe Arena in  Sweden. The event will be headlined by Sweeden’s own Alexander ‘Swedish Mauler’ Gustafsson and the hard-hitting Glover Teixeira.

Back in Business

After contract negotiations earlier in the year appeared to go sour, the UFC and Misha Cirkunov finally came to terms on a new deal and the Latvian contender is back in business. Cirkunov has been on a roll, winning eight fights in a row, including his first four bouts under the UFC banner. All of those eight victories have been by stoppage, hence making him one of the more dangerous new contenders at 205 pounds. Cirkunov is now ranked #7 in the UFC Light Heavyweight division and a win over the 5th ranked Oezdemir will put him even higher on the ranking ladder.

Swiss Oezdemir took a fight against Ovince St. Preux on short notice at UFC Fight Night 104 and surprised many by outworking OSP and hacking out a win over the former interim title contender. The win over St. Preux was his promotional debut and he’s won three in a row since suffering his first loss at Bellator 115 three years ago. He looks to solidify his hold of a Top 5 ranking and increase his chances of earning a title fight.

Odds and Prediction

Cirkunov is the favorite here at -350 while Oezdemir is at +290. Oezdemir lands an impressive 5.47 strikes per minute, which is more than Cirkunov’s 3.97. However, the real striking story is on the other side of the stats, Cirkunov absorbs only 2.28 strikes per minute while Oezdemir gets hit with 5.07 striker per minute. That’s a significant difference especially since Oezdemir is fighting a powerful striker who has a two inch reach advantage in Cirkunov.

The grappling side is one-sided as Cirkunov is a submission artist at heart. Five of his last seven bouts have ended in a submission and despite his punching power, he likes to take his opponents to the ground and tap them out. It’s also interesting to note that Oezdemir’s only defeat in 2014 came by submission. It could turn out to be a good fight but the better man will win. We’re picking Cirkunov to win this fight whichever way.