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Alexander Gustafsson in the UFC Octagon Ring

UFC Fight Night 109: Alexander Gustafsson vs. Glover Teixeira Odds and Prediction

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Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira headline the UFC’s later foray in Sweden. The two former Light Heavyweight title contenders will square off in a five round bout at the Ericsson Globe in Stockholm, Sweden on May 28th, 2017.

One More Crack At The Title?

Both Fighters are looking for one more crack at the world title. Gustafsson got two chances, one against Jon Jones in 2013 and another to Daniel Cormier in 2015. He lost both bouts by close decision. In fact, some believe he beat Jon Jones at UFC 165. Those heartbreaks have not prevented the Swedish Mauler from working his way back to the top one more time. Gustafsson has split his last six bouts at 3-3, with his losses coming to Jones, Cormier and Anthony Johnson. Gus is coming off an impressive unanimous decision win over Jan Blachowicz at UFC Fight Night 93.

Glover Teixeira also challenged Jon Jones for the world title at UFC 172 in 2014. Jones beat him by clear and wide unanimous decision. Since then, Teixeira has managed to return to the top of the rankings with stoppage wins over Ovince St. Preux, Patrick Cummins and Rashad Evans. However, he is coming off a 13-second knockout loss to Anthony ‘Rumble” Johnson at UFC 202.

Odds and Prediction

This one’s as close as it gets. Gustafsson is favored at -175 While Teixeira is the slight underdog at +150.

The home court advantage almost always is a factor. In this case, Gustafsson loves to fight in his hometown. In fact, the Swedish Mauler is 5-1 when fighting in Stockholm although it’s worth noting that his last fight there was a first round KO loss to Rumble Johnson. However, he isn’t fighting Rumble Johnson here.

Glover Teixeira may possess the same power as Anthony Johnson but he is no Rumble. Against a much younger, more athletic and equally powerful opponent like Gustafsson, Teixeira can be overwhelmed. Remember that in his last bout, Rumble Johnson ( yes he too ) rushed him and knocked him out in 13 seconds. Turn the tables now: Gus is no Rumble Johnson either. But the Swede is just as aggressive and relentless. We’re just not confident of Teixeira once he gets swarmed.

It’s a pick‘em fight but we’re going with the younger and the rangier Alexander Gustafsson to win a striking battle here.

UFC 211 Betting: Eddie Alvarez vs. Dustin Poirier Odds and Prediction

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Eddie Alvarez fights for the first time since losing his UFC lightweight title to Conor McGregor at UFC 205 last November. The Underground king will face former featherweight contender Dustin Poirier at UFC 211 on May 13th, 2017 at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas, USA.

Two Promotion Champ

Alvarez is the only fighter to win a world title in two different promotions. Prior to winning the UFC lightweight title against Rafael Dos Anjos in July of 2016, Alvarez was the staple lightweight in Bellator and was a two-time lightweight champion there. Since coming over to the UFC, Alvarez has fought one world class fighter after another: Cowboy Donald Cerrone, Gilbert Melendez, Anthony Pettis, Rafael Dos Anjos and Conor McGregor.

Chasing A Title

Dustin Poirier has been chasing a world title for a long time now. The Diamond is 5-1 since returning to lightweight and losing to McGregor. He just beat Jim Miller last February and is now making a quick return fight against a former champion. Poirier believes that he will be one fight away from that much coveted title shot if he beats Eddie Alvarez at UFC 211.

The Odds

Eddie Alvarez is the slight favorite here at -160 while Dustin Poirier is at +120. Both men are excellent strikers who possess knockout power. Both can also hold their own in grappling and wrestling so this fight could go anywhere.

Both men stand at 5-9 but Dustin Poirier has the longer reach at 72’ . He is also four years Alvarez’s junior and averages 1.54 more strikes per minute landed than the former champion. Poirier’s 49% striking accuracy is also 7% better than Eddie Alvarez’s number.

However, if we go down to the grappling statistics, Eddie Alvarez is more aggressive with his take downs. The Underground King averages 3.58 take downs per 15 minutes as compared to the Diamond’s 1.79. That’s almost a two take down differential and those two take downs would be a huge difference maker in a fight that is expected to be this close.

The Prediction

One can certainly make case for either fighter to win this fight but we’re going with Eddie Alvarez because of his aggressive take downs and because he has fought better competition. Sure, there is a possibility that Dustin Poirier is going to get the knockout here but unless Eddie Alvarez gets clipped and gets knocked out by Poirier, the former Lightweight king  has got this. We’re picking Eddie Alvarez  to win by early KO or unanimous decision.

UFC 211 Odds and Preview: Frankie Edgar vs. Yair Rodriguez

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Former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar faces the up and coming Yair Rodriguez in a featherweight contest at UFC 211 at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas on May 13th.

Just The Gatekeeper?

Frankie Edgar has seen it all and has been there in the sport. After losing his lightweight title to Benson Henderson, losing to Bendo in the rematch and losing to Jose Aldo in his first bout at featherweight, Edgar has won six of seven bouts in impressive fashion. The only loss for Edgar during this period was his UFC 200 defeat to Jose Aldo (again) in his most recent bout. After losing his last three title fights, many wonder if Frankie is simply the gatekeeper now. The Answer hopes to prove them wrong with a win over the fast rising Yair Rodriguez.

Rising Star

Yair Rodriguez is the rising star at featherweight. After winning the first season of TUF Latin America, Rodriguez has remained perfect in his UFC career. El Pantera opened with victories over Charles Rosa, Dan Hooker and Andre Fili. He then headlined his first event last August where he beat Alex Caceres via split decision. Rodriguez’s last three wins have been fight of the night bonus winners. He is looking for the signature victory that will push him to the upper echelon in his weight class. He will have that opportunity against the battle tested Frankie Edgar.

Odds And Prediction

Frankie Edgar is a -175 favorite against Yair Rodriguez, who is at +150 right now. No doubt Frankie has the edge in experience but Yair Rodriguez has the tools to beat Frankie Edgar. First, Edgar isn’t a known knockout artists so this opens up the opportunity for Rodriguez to take his chances with his unorthodox striking. El Pantera’s superb striking skills should put Frankie Edgar on his toes and make him hesitant to shoot for takedowns.

Should Edgar be successful in taking down Rodriguez, Yair has shown much improved ground game which shouldn’t keep him on the ground for too long for Frankie to dominate. Rodriguez also has freak athleticism which can free him in the clinch. In short, we think Rodriguez is going to turn this into a striking battle and he has a three inch reach advantage. For sure Yair Rodriguez is a live underdog. We’re picking him to beat Frankie Edgar in a competitive fight.

Repeat or Revenge? Junior Dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic Odds and Prediction

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UFC Heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic defends his belt for the second time against former champion Junior Dos Santos in the main event of UFC 211 on May 13th, 2017 at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

The bout will be a rematch of the headliner of UFC on Fox 13 in 2014 where Dos Santos beat Miocic via unanimous decision in a back and forth slugfest that earned Fight of The night Honors. That defeat was the last setback in Miocic’s career. He’s been on a tear ever since.

Breaking The Curse

Miocic earned worldwide recognition by breaking the Curse of Cleveland. He became Cleveland’s first major sport world champion in 52 years. Stipe earned that distinction by knocking out then champion Fabricio Werdum in the latter’s own backyard in Brazil at UFC 198. After that, Miocic successfully defended the UFC Heavyweight title with a first round knockout of Alistair Overeem at UFC 203. Miocic’s last five victories have been by knockout, with the last three all coming in the very first round.

Dos Santos, meanwhile, is coming off a solid victory over the surging Ben Rothwell at UFC Fight Night 86 in April of 2016. Two fights earlier, Dos Santos beat Miocic on points. Junior is famously known as the first fighter to beat Cain Velasquez, although he lost his next two bouts against Cardio Cain. His fight resume is a list of the who’s who of the heavyweight division, while Dos Santos is looking at one final crack at the world title.

The Odds and Prediction

Miocic vs. Dos Santos is a tough one to pick. The odds have installed Miocic a -175 favorite against Junior’s +150 but in the UFC’s heavyweight division, but it takes just one punch to change destiny.

Miocic is a striking machine who averages 5.03 significant strikes landed per minute at an accuracy of 50.4%. That’s dangerous, considering he packs tremendous power in both hands. Twelve of Miocic’s 16 victories have been by knockout, so his strategy won’t come as a surprise for Junior Dos Santos. He does have decent wrestling and grappling but it’s a known fact that his haymakers are his bread and butter.

Likewise, Dos Santos is an equally excellent striker. In fact, he’s been long considered to be the best boxer in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He averages 4.89 significant strikes landed per minute and does so with an accuracy of 48%. Dos Santos has 12 KOs in 18 victories with three of his last five wins by stoppage. Stylistically, this is hard to pick because these are the two top strikers at heavyweight. But given that Cigano is now 33, has gone 3-3 in his last six bouts and has suffered knockout losses in two of his last three losses, it’s fair to wonder if he’s in a good spot here. Not only has been Dos Santos hit and miss lately, he also hasn’t been too active with just one fight in each of the last three years.

Dos Santos is still one of the elite strikers in the business but he’s facing a raging bull in Miocic. It’s Stipe’s time now and while we may see another back and forth war, Miocic will likely end up getting his revenge against Dos Santos. We’re picking Stipe Miocic to successfully defend the UFC Heavyweight title for a second time this year.

UFC Fight Night 108: Artem Lobov vs. Cub Swanson Odds and Prediction

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Artem Lobov asked for Cub Swanson and he got the fight. Now Swanson wants to shut his mouth.

Teach Him Some Manners

Lobov began calling out Swanson after watching the UFC’s 4th ranked featherweight slug it out with Korean top prospect Doo Ho Choi at UFC 206 in one of 2016’s best and most exciting fights.  It didn’t take long for Swanson to notice the call out and the tough as nails fighter immediately agreed to face Lobov at the main event of UFC Fight Night 108 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee on April 22nd, 2017.

Fighting an unranked opponent doesn’t really makes sense for Cub Swanson and it is indeed a huge risk for him. But he said he’s got to teach Lobov some manners for calling him out on social media.

Better Fighter

Swanson averages 3.67 significant strikes per minutes as compared to Lobov’s 2.67. The American is also the more accurate striker at 46.9% versus 40.4%. On the ground, Swanson also has the better numbers at 1.3 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Lobov averages just 0.40 takedowns over the same period. Having seen the numbers, Cub Swanson is definitely the better fighter between these two.

The concern with Swanson, though, is that he has been submitted five times in his career. But Lobov may not have the ground game to submit him as the SBG Ireland product only has two of thirteen wins by submission.

The Odds

Top UFC betting sites like Bovada have Cub Swanson as the favorite here at -600 odds and Lobov the underdog at +400.

Consistency has been a problem for Lobov as he has been hit or miss in recent years. He is coming off a November victory over Teruto Ishihara and an August win over Chris Avila but in the longer term, he’s just split his last 14 bouts. There is nothing really special about Lobov’s game. He isn’t a knockout artist or a submission specialist. 7 of his 13 wins are by decision. He’s always just smart enough to find ways to win fights on points. And yes, he hasn’t fought top level competition yet so he is untested.

Swanson’s resume meanwhile is a who’s who of the division. He may have lost several fights to big named fighters but the experience difference between him and Lobov is too much. Likewise, Swanson has won 8 of his last 10 bouts and has been one of the more consistent fighters in the division. He may be 33 years old but we didn’t saw any signs of that during his back and forth Fight of The Year candidate against top prospect Doo Ho Choi at UFC 206 which he won by the way.

Not only  is Swanson more experienced and consistent, he also has the advantage in power, striking and conditioning. Given all his edges, we’re picking Cub Swanson to win convincingly over Artem Lobov.

UFC on Fox 24: Ronaldo Souza vs. Robert Whittaker Odds and Prediction

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Two of the UFC’s top welterweight collide in the under card of UFC on Fox 24 on April 15th, 2017 at the Sprint Center in Missouri.

3rd ranked Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza takes on the red hot 6th ranked Robert Whittaker in a bout that could cement a title shot for Souza or push Whitaker amongst the middleweight elites.

Waiting For His Shot

Jacare has been waiting for his title shot for too long and despite the controversial loss to Yoel Romero, this is the man who is the most deserving to face Michael Bisping for the belt. But with GSP given that opportunity now, Souza has decided to keep himself busy. And he’s decided to do so by taking a fight against one of the more dangerous punchers in the division.

Robert Whitaker’s move to middleweight has paid off, so far. After going 3-3 in his last six welterweight bouts, the hard hitting Australian moved up in weight class in 2014. Since then, he’s won five fights in a row with three stoppages. All three stoppages have earned him post fight bonuses.  Whitaker is coming off a win over the equally powerful Derek Brunson but he’s definitely moving to a higher level fighting one of the best middleweights ever in Jacare Souza.

The Odds

Jacare is currently a -245 favorite against Whittaker who is at +185. You can make a good argument for either fighter because both are currently on a good run.

Although he’s already 37 years of age, Jacare Souza is a prime example of consistency. Since losing to Luke Rockhold in his UFC debut in 2011, Souza has gone 10-1 with his only defeat the controversial split decision loss to Yoel Romero at UFC 194. Souza is considered one of the best grapplers in the sport with 70% of his victories ( 17 out of 24 ) coming by submission.

Robert Whittaker has powered his way to five straight wins in the middleweight division. But even if he’s coming off an explosive first round TKO of Derek Brunson, he hasn’t stepped inside the octagon with a highly decorated Jiu Jitsu practitioner like Ronaldo Souza. Sure, Whitaker possesses tremendous punching power and high volume striker but Jacare has seen it all inside that Octagon.

The Prediction

The main concern here is that Souza is making a quick return fight because he just fought last February. But given his track record, that should not be a problem. Souza’s age may sound like a red flag too as he could as they say grow old overnight during this fight. Given his consistency though, that’s unlikely.

Souza’s grappling skills meanwhile could be a big problem for Whittaker. Look, Robert Whittaker has good grappling and can win an ugly fight on the ground. It’s just unlikely he can do it against a true middleweight elite who has multiple Jiu Jitsu and grappling world titles on his resume. Souza’s grappling is second to none. It should be the key here. We’re picking Ronaldo Souza to beat Robert Whittaker.

UFC 210: Will Brooks vs. Charles Oliveira Odds and Prediction

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An interesting lightweight matchup was added to UFC 210 fight card, as Will Brooks faces the returning Charles Oliveira in a three round affair.

Rough Road

The move to the UFC has been a rough road for Will Brooks. After winning the Bellator Season 9 Lightweight tournament in 2013, Brooks cemented his status as the Scott Coker-led promotion’s Lightweight king with back to back victories over Michael Chandler. After two title defenses, though, Brooks tried his luck at the UFC where he signed a six-fight deal and debuted with a UD win over Ross Pearson at the TUF 23 Finale. But one fight later, Brooks suffered the second defeat of his career at the hands of Alex Oliveira, losing by KO at UFC Fight Night 23. The last time he lost, Brooks bounced back with nine straight wins. He looks to rebound again against a tough submission artist.

Submission Specialist

Charles Oliveira’s middle name should’ve been submission because the Brazilian veteran is one of the best submission artists in the UFC. A whopping 13 of Oliveira’s 21 victories have come by submission and he’s had a long line of notable victims in the UFC: Hatsu Hioki, Jeremy Stephens, Nick Lentz and most recently Myles Jury. Despite his grappling expertise, it was kind of surprising to see Oliveira lose his last two bouts by submission, both by guillotine choke to Anthony Pettis and Ricardo Lamas. Still ever dangerous on the mat, Oliveira looks to rebound – just like Brooks – from a defeat and rise as one of the contenders in the red hot lightweight division.

The Odds

Will Brooks is a -260 favorite while Charles Oliveira is currently a +250 underdog. Despite Brooks’ two fight resume in the UFC, he is a proven winner with the Bellator title on top of his achievements. Sure, he lost to Alex Oliveira, but remember Cowboy grossly missed weight for that bout and Brooks still took it. Will Brooks has been nothing but solid all throughout his career and his consistency should be crucial here. If this fight remains on the feet, Brooks has a huge advantage over Oliveira and if this one goes down to the ground (which is likely Oliveira’s game plan), Brooks’ grappling and wrestling are polished enough to match Oliveira.

Aside from a two fight losing skid, Oliveira is expecting his wife to give birth to their first child at about the same time UFC 210 is happening. No matter how focused he and his team says he is about Will Brooks, you can never take away a father’s excitement of his first born child. Oliveira needs a win badly but moving back up to 155 isn’t the solution. Nor is it going to be fighting Will Brooks. Du Bronx hasn’t won at 155 since December of 2015 and he’s not going to win against Will Brooks either. We’re picking Will Brooks to beat Charles Oliveira.

Chris Weidman American Flag

Chris Weidman vs. Gegard Mousasi Odds and Prediction: Can All-American Bounce Back?

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Former UFC middleweight Chris Weidman looks to stop the first losing streak of his career when he faces the surging Gegard Mousasi at UFC 210 on April 8th.

Opposite Ways

Weidman vs Mousasi is a fight between fighters going opposite ways. Mousasi is on his best winning run ever, while Weidman is trying to snap out of a skid.

Chris Weidman was one of the hottest fighters when he came off back to back wins over the legendary Anderson Silva. But after going 13-0, it has been downhill for the New Yorker. Not only did he lose his middleweight title to Luke Rockhold at UFC 194, he lost his comeback fight against Yoel Romero at the monumental UFC 205 in New York.

With back to back losses, Weidman cannot afford another setback. But things haven’t gotten easier as he will face a fighter who is experiencing his best run in his UFC career. Former Strikeforce middleweight champion Gegard Mousasi has won six of his last seven fights and his last three by knockout. Mousasi’s winning streak has put him him in the Top 5 of the UFC middleweight rankings for the first time ever. A victory over the 4th ranked Weidman will surely generate talks of a title shot against the winner of Bisping vs St. Pierre.

The Odds

Weidman is currently at even money ( +100 ) while Mousasi is slightly favored at -125. The concern with Weidman right not is that he’s lost back to back fights by knockout and Gegard Mousasi has the same (if not more) power than Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero.

Like Weidman’s last two conquerors, Mousasi is an excellent striker who averages 3.68 significant strikes landed per minute. He’s also precise with his strikes at 50% accuracy. If this fight stays on the feet, Mousasi will have the big advantage over Weidman. But that’s not the end of our story. Mousasi’s takedown defense is good, but not great. And against an All-American wrestler like Weidman, that could spell trouble.

Grounding Mousasi

Weidman averages 3.33 takedowns per 15 minutes. That’s more than the average of the last 7 opponents of Mousasi, during which he’s been 6-1. The last time Mousasi faced someone with a better average was in 2014 against Jacare Souza. During that bout, Mousasi was taken to the ground four times and was submitted by the Brazilian grappler in the third round.

Weidman may not have the submission skills of Souza but his wrestling and grappling are just as dominating. If Weidman forces Mousasi to the mat, it’s going to be trouble for the Dream Catcher. This fight can go either way but given this will be in Weidman’s hometown in New York and Weidman is more desperate for a victory, we’re going with Chris Weidman here.

Sure, it’s not going to be necessarily dominant. But this will be ugly and grinding. Weidman’s going to take Mousasi to the ground and win it whichever way he can. We’re picking Chris Weidman to win by decision or ground and pound stoppage.

UFC Fight Night 107: Jimi Manuwa vs. Corey Anderson Odds and Prediction

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Two of the light heavyweight division’s up and coming contenders square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night 107 at the O2 Arena in London on March 18th, 2017.

Fifth ranked Jimi Manuwa will face 7th ranked Corey Anderson in a fight that was promoted to top billing after the UFC reportedly had a difficulty in booking a main event for their London return. Needless to say, it’s set up as a big fight and the crowd at O2 Arena should be loud and ready for a good one:

This will be Manuwa’s second time to headline an event at the O2 Arena. Previously, he was knocked out by Alexander Gustafsson at UFC Fight Night 37.

Knocking On Championship Door

Manuwa is coming off an impressive 2nd round knockout win over former title challenger Ovince St. Preux at UFC 204 in Manchester. The English fighter has a 16-2 record and has 14 KOs to his credit. He’s been knocking on the championship door several times before but knockout losses to Anthony Johnson and Alexander Gustafsson have derailed Poster Boy in the past two years. With another opportunity to headline an event, Manuwa looks to improve his ranking and get closer to that chance to finally fight for a world title.

Fellow Up And Comer

After winning the Ultimate Fighter 19 season, Corey Anderson has compiled a 5-2 record in the UFC. The 7th ranked light heavyweight is also coming off a TKO victory over Sean O’Connell at UFC Fight Night 102 last December. Like Manuwa, he’s one of the up and comers in a stacked 205-pound division. But like Manuwa, he come up short in the biggest bout of his career. Overtime suffered a close split decision win against Mauricio Shogun Rua at UFC 198 in May 2016. But given a chance to make a name for himself, Anderson sets his sights on beating another highly ranked fighter in Manuwa. A victory over Manuwa puts Anderson on the title map but it won’t be easy.

Experience is The Key

The odds are calling this one for the Brit with Manuwa currently a -145 favorite against Anderson’s +115. But while the lines may be close, Manuwa has significant advantage in terms of experience and quality of opposition faced. Like Manuwa, Corey Anderson is an accurate striker with high volume of punches thrown. But we saw what happened to Ovince St. Preux when he faced Manuwa at UFC 204. Corey Anderson does have the puncher’s chance of beating Manuwa but it’s unlikely the hometown boy will disappoint. We’re picking Jimi Manuwa to win this fight via knockout.

UFC 209: Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson Odds and Prediction

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Five rounds weren’t enough to get a winner. Now the UFC adds another five more.

Four months after they figured in a controversial majority draw at the historic UFC 205 last November, UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley and top contender Stephen Thompson go at it again. This time, the welterweight pair will be the headliner of UFC 209 at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena.

Controversial Draw

Woodley won the UFC welterweight title with a dramatic first round knockout of Robbie Lawler at UFC 201 in July of 2016. He retained the belt with the controversial draw against Wonderboy in November. But retaining the title won’t be enough for the Chosen One. Woodley plans on giving Wonderboy the worst beating of his career.

After their first bout, Thompson was immediately campaigning for a rematch. Woodley on the other hand, tried to lure the UFC into booking him big fights with GSP or Nick Diaz. In the end though, Dana White felt the two needed five more rounds to settle the score. They were booked to be the main event of UFC 209 on March 4th in Sin City.

The Odds

Stephen Thompson opened as a -120 favorite while the champion Woodley opened at even money. The current money lines haven’t changed much with Thompson fluctuating from -120 to -135 and Woodley from even money to +105. Woodley won’t like these numbers but these are better than the +120 and +140 with which he opened and closed during their first bout. However, it’s still surprising how Woodley is the underdog considering what transpired during their first meeting.

Woodley outstruck Thompson 113-60 in total strikes and 61-43 in significant strikes. He was also able to take Thompson down once and nearly submitted Wonderboy at one point in the bout. Many observers felt Woodley won and got the raw deal from the judges. Not only did he land more shots, he was the one who connected with the more telling blows.

More Well Rounded

Despite getting only a draw from the judges, Woodley erased the doubts on his cardio and his ability to mix it up with a premiere striker like Stephen Thompson. Not only did he take Thompson’s strikes well, but he also showed that he was the more well-rounded fighter.

Nothing much changes here, especially since their last fight was only last November. Sure, Wonderboy will make adjustments, but so will Woodley. Overall, we see Tyron Woodley as the better all-around fighter and Wonderboy the more flashy striker. Look for Woodley to shoot for more takedowns in the rematch. He had Thompson in a whole lot of trouble on his back. Wonderboy won’t be easy to beat though, even on the ground. But Woodley is going to hack out a decision win in this fight. It’s going to be close, perhaps a split decision. But Woodley should get the win this time around.