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UFC Fight Night Night: Robbie Lawler vs. Rafael Dos Anjos Odds and Prediction

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Robbie Lawler and Rafael Dos Anjos collide at the main event of UFC on Fox 26 on December 16th, 2017 at the Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg, Manitoba.

Lawler is coming off a victory over Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone at UFC 214, while Dos Anjos is has won two fights in a row since moving up to welterweight. The former UFC lightweight king defeated Tarec Saffiedine by unanimous decision in his welterweight debut and then submitted Neil Magny at UFC 215 in his most recent bout.

To sweeten the pot, UFC President Dana White has announced that the winner of this contest will get the next title shot against Tyron Woodley.

Tough Call

Lawler opened as the -160 favorite while Dos Anjos was the underdog at +120 when the lines opened. Since then, the line has gotten closer at -120 for Lawler and even money +100 for Dos Anjos.

This is a tough call really and should be a pick ‘em fight. Lawler has the sure advantage in size and punching power but to his credit, Dos Anjos has managed to keep up with the big boys at 170. RDA was able to hang with Saffiedine for three rounds and he showed that he can use his submission skills against bigger foes like Magny.

Statistically, both are even in the striking department with Lawler averaging 3.57 significant strikes landed per minute and Dos Anjos at 3.37. In terms of accuracy, Lawler also has the slight edge at 45% against 42%. Defensively, RDA’s strike defense is a little better at 65% against Ruthless’ 61%.

Going To The Ground

On the ground, Dos Anjos has a huge edge in offense. He averages 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes while Lawler only has a 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dos Anjos also averages 0.9 submissions per 15 minutes while Lawler’s submission game is almost non-existent.

With this advantage, it’s wise for Dos Anjos to take his chances against Lawler on the mat rather than on his feet. Sure, RDA is no slouch as a striker but Lawler has otherworldly punching power and durability. He’s faced much bigger men and withstood their punches, while at the same time dishing out his own punishment.

One thing going for Dos Anjos, though, is that Lawler’s last defeat was a first round KO against Tyron Woodley. So, perhaps because Ruthless has aged, his armor may not be what it once was. However, it’s still risky to try if that is indeed the case. You know that if Lawler connects with his punches, it’s going to be a quick night for Dos Anjos.

Power and Durability

Having said those, it’s Robbie Lawler’s punching power and durability that should stand out here. Dos Anjos has fought only twice as a welterweight and he’s never seen a big power hitter like Robbie Lawler.

Lawler’s takedown defense isn’t really elite at 69% but against a smaller guy (Lawler is three inches taller and four inches longer), he should stuff RDA’s takedown attempts. Dos Anjos does have excellent striking and can match Lawler’s firepower. But it remains to be seen how he will be once Lawler connects one clean punch.

It’s going to be a chess match early with Dos Anjos using his smarts to avoid Lawler’s bombs. But eventually, Lawler is going to catch up with Dos Anjos. He’s going to swarm RDA and make him back pedal. In the championship rounds, Lawler is going to connect that one big punch that will decide the outcome of this contest. We’re picking Robbie Lawler to win by knockout after three rounds.

UFC 217: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Rose Namajunas Odds and Prediction

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Joanna Jedrzejczyk will defend the UFC women’s strawweight title against Rose Namajunas in one of the three massive title fights slated for UFC 217 at the Madison Square Garden in New York on November 4th, 2017.

Jedrzejczyk has been on a dominating reign as UFC women’s strawweight champion. She is unbeaten in 14 total MMA fights and has successfully defended her belt five times since defeating UFC  women’s strawweight inaugural champion, Carla Esparza. That’s an impressive feat by itself, but Joanna has no plans in slowing down.

Solid Favorite

Namajunas has won four of her last five bouts and is coming off a 2nd round submission win over Michelle Waterson last April. The UFC’s 4th ranked female strawweight fought for the inaugural title in 2014 but lost to Carla Esparza. She hopes to win the belt in her second attempt but will be hard-pressed to do so against one of the top fighters in the UFC.

Jedrzejczyk is a staggering -600 favorite at Bovada and other UFC betting sites, while her challenger who is currently at +400. Jedrzejczyk needs no introduction. She is the best pound for pound female fighter in the UFC today. A former Muay Thai and Kickboxing world champion, Jedrzejczyk uses her legs and knees better than most fighters on the circuit.

Deadly Ground Game

Joanna is a highly efficient striker with great accuracy and a good boxing background. Although most of her fights have ended in a decision, she definitely can finish off her opponent. If this fight stays on the feet, Jedrzejczyk will be unbeatable.

Despite the fact that she doesn’t have a knockout under her belt, Namajunas can hold her own in striking. She is a pressure fighter who likes to mix her jabs with kicks. But what makes Namajunas deadly is her ground game. Five of her seven wins have come via submission. With her upper body strength and long legs, she is dangerous when she gets position on the canvass. One thing you’ve got to watch out for is her going for that rear naked choke.

Has Passed The Test

With her skill-set, Namajunas could be the kryptonite for Jedrzejczyk. If she takes the champion down, she won’t just take her off her biggest strength which is striking, but Rose will have the opportunity to win because she is an excellent submission artist.

But it’s hard to go against someone who is perhaps the best female fighter out there today. Jedrzejczyk has beaten every challenger that has been thrown at her and has passed the test against excellent submission artists like Claudia Gadelha and Jessica Penne. She’s going to keep this fight on the feet and outstrike Namajunas all night long.

We’re picking Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win this one by unanimous decision.

Cody Garbrandt vs. T.J. Dillashaw Odds and Prediction

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Cody Garbrandt defends his UFC bantamweight title for the first time against former champion and ex-teammate T.J. Dillashaw at UFC 217 on November 4th, 2017 at the Madison Square Garden in New York.

No Love Lost

Garbrandt’s nickname is ‘No Love’ and there is absolutely no love lost between these two former Team Alpha Male teammates. It can be recalled that Dillashaw left Team Alpha Male during his peak and title reign while Garbrandt won the belt from Dominick Cruz, the man who narrowly defeated Dillashaw in 2016.

These two former friends and now bitter rivals were originally slated to fight at UFC 213, but after Garbrandt suffered a back injury in May, it was rebooked for the MSG event on November 4th, 2017. It may no longer be the main event of its new schedule but it’s a fight that could steal the thunder from the entire event.

Both fighters have expressed their intention to book a superfight with UFC flyweight king Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson so that should be an added motivation to win this fight. More than that, though, it’s pride and hate that drives these two elite bantamweights against each other.

Recipe For A Classic

The champion Garbrandt is the obvious favorite (-185 at Bovada) against the ex-champion Dillashaw, who is currently at +150. It doesn’t get any better than this. These are two of the best fighters in the bantamweight division and they absolutely hate each other.  You can’t really find a better recipe for a UFC classic.

Dillashaw has the longer reach and the versatility as a fighter but Cody Garbrandt has the edge in power and athleticism. Both fighters can push the pace for five rounds – no doubt about that – so this could very well go the distance.

In terms of numbers, Dillashaw has the edge, as he lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute, compared to Garbrandt’s 3.58. He also has the slight edge in accuracy at 41% vs 37%.

T.J. also has the better grappling stats with an average of 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes as compared to Garbrandt’s 1.19. But the most important stat in this match should be Garbrandt’s 82% knockout ratio.

Power is Difference Maker

The champion has stopped 9 of 11 opponents with three of his last four victories coming by way of first round knockout. No doubt Dillashaw is an elusive target who is hard to hit much more knock out, but the same was said of Dominick Cruz before Cody Garbrandt pick Cruz apart at UFC 207.

Garbrandt has shown few weaknesses so far but Dillashaw being a former teammate may know some things that we don’t which he can exploit. Otherwise, it’s hard not to pick Cody Garbrandt in this match-up.  Dillashaw might want to take this fight to the ground to negate Cody’s power punches but Garbrandt has superb takedown defense.

On the feet, this should be an equal battle but Garbrandt’s power should be the difference maker here. We’re going with the champion Cody Garbrandt to win by a close unanimous decision.

UFC 217: Stephen Thompson vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds and Prediction

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Stephen Thompson faces Jorge Masvidal at UFC 217 at the Madison Square Garden in New York on November 4th, 2017. The event will be headlined by the middleweight title bout between champion Michael Bisping and former UFC welterweight king Georges St. Pierre, but this welterweight showdown could steal the thunder.

Coming off Losses

Thompson will be fighting for the first time since back to back title fights against UFC welterweight champ, Tyron Woodley. Wonderboy came within a whisker of winning the belt twice, earning a majority draw at UFC 205 and then dropping a 48-47, 48-47 and 47-47 majority decision loss to Woodley during their rematch at UFC 209. Prior to those two bouts, the South Carolina native won an impressive nine consecutive bouts.

Masvidal is also coming off a loss, having been beaten by Demian Maia at UFC 211. Prior to that defeat, Masvidal went on a three fight winning streak, beating Ross Pearson, Jake Ellenberger and Donald Cerrone in succession. Gamebred’s last 8 fights record of 4-4 is very deceptive. He has been silently climbing the ranks and improving his game. Masvidal has been waiting for a big opportunity like this and you bet he’s going all out.

Odds and Prediction

Wonderboy Thompson is currently the favorite at -155 ,while Jorge Masvidal is the underdog at +135.

This pick’em fight should be a good one and has the potential to be the fight of the night. Wonderboy is a decorated kickboxer who also has good power in his punches. Thompson’s legs are long while his kicks and punches are strong, making him a dangerous opponent in standup striking.  When he gets taken down, though, he isn’t as good on his back.

Masvidal is a brawler who lands powerful punches in the stand up. He’s one of the tougher fighters in the division owing to his Miami street fighting background. Gamebred is also quick and athletic enough to land takedowns plus he has good grappling skills. Thompson should have a handful against Masvidal standing up but when the fight goes to the ground, it’s got to be Masvidal’s fight to win.

Thompson will look for the quick win here but given that Masvidal has been knocked out only once in his 12 losses, it’s going to be frustrating. Masvidal, meanwhile, will try to make this ugly, whether on the feet or on the ground. He’s gonna try and make Thompson do other things aside from striking. This fight should go the distance with Masvidal winning by a narrow decision. We’re going with the upset here and picking Masvidal to win on points.

UFC Fight Night 118: Will Cowboy End His Losing Streak?

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Donald Cerrone looks to snap out of the first losing streak of his MMA career when he faces Darren Till in the main event of UFC Fight Night 188 in Gdansk, Poland on October 21st, 2017.

Back To Back Losses

Cerrone is known as one of the UFC’s busiest fighters with at least four fights per year since 2013. But this year, he’s fought just twice and surprisingly has lost both. Cowboy was knocked out by Jorge Masvidal last January and then suffered a unanimous decision loss to Robbie Lawler in a high profile fight at UFC 214 last July. Cerrone hopes to get back on the winning side against a relative newcomer he said he never heard of before.

Darren Till has been in the UFC since 2015 but not many people know him. That’s because three of his four UFC bouts have been in the prelims of non-PPV events. But he’s unbeaten at 15-0-1 including a UFC record of 3-0-1. Till is coming off a September 2nd victory against Bojan Velickovic and will be making a quick turnaround for this one.

Pretty Close

Surprisingly, the odds for this one are pretty close. Cerrone is the slight favorite at -155 while Till the underdog at +125 at Bovada. If you take a look at his fight resume, chances are you won’t recognize any names there. But just because Till hasn’t fought quality opposition in the UFC doesn’t mean he is easy picking for Cowboy.

Till has has one-punch knockout power and that’s what makes him very dangerous. His athleticism and awkward style could turn out to be a nightmare for Cerrone, who is getting up there in the age department. Remember that Cowboy is coming off the first back to back losses of his MMA career so he may be one the way down. But then again, maybe not.

Explosiveness vs. Experience

Although he clearly lost to Masvidal, Cerrone fought Lawler tooth and nail. It was a back and forth fight and unfortunately it was just a three rounder. Lawler won that fight by a hairline and had it gone longer, who knows if Cerrone would’ve picked up the victory. Cowboy’s Muay Thai background makes this an exciting striking affair.

Cerrone has the advantage if this fight goes to the ground because he has more fight experience. But given Till’s explosiveness, he can end this fight at any moment. That’s what makes him dangerous, especially since three of Cowboy’s last five losses have been by knockout to excellent strikers in Anthony Pettis, Rafael Dos Anjos and Masvidal.

This one’s a pick ‘em fight but you’ve got to go with the veteran here. He’s been here and done that. Till has a great career ahead of him but Cerrone is a big step up in opposition for him. We’re picking Donald Cerrone to win this one by submission or decision.

UFC 216 Odds and Prediction: Fabricio Werdum vs. Derrick Lewis

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Former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum squares off against the 7th ranked Derrick Lewis at UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Coming From Losses

Werdum is coming off of a majority decision loss to Alistair Overeem but remains one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC’s heavyweight division with his elite grappling and improved striking game.

Lewis is also coming off a loss. The Black Beast lost steam and got knocked out by Mark Hunt at UFC Fight Night 110 last June. He announced his retirement after the bout but has since changed course. Now, Lewis tries to avoid losing back to back fights for the first time in his career. It won’t be easy at all.

Dictating The Fight

Werdum is the favorite here at -250. Lewis, meanwhile, is the slight underdog at +195. This should go down to whoever can dictate the fight and make his opponent fight his style.

Werdum is perhaps the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history so it would be prudent for him to take this fight to the ground. Werdum’s striking has improved since his title run but we saw what happened when he stood in front of a heavy hitter like Stipe Miocic.  Derrick Lewis has the same kind of punching power, or even better.

Fourteen of the Black Beast’s 15 wins have come via knockout and only four of his total fights have gone the distance. So, either way, Derrick Lewis is going to come out swinging for the fences against Werdum. There is no doubt that if Lewis can connect, Werdum is definitely going to sleep.

Prediction

Werdum, meanwhile, will try to avoid the Miocic mistake. Because he is the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history, he will most certainly try to slow down Lewis by taking the fight to the ground where he is an expert. But Lewis may not be easy to put on the canvas.

The Black Beast is 260 pounds and has good takedown defense. Werdum also has to be wary about Lewis’ reach which is two inches longer than his. If Werdum can’t take this fight to the ground, he’s going to have to eat monster punches from the Black Beast.

This could go either way, really. But we’re picking Derrick Lewis to win this one by stoppage. I just don’t see Werdum taking him to the ground. Lewis’ is the longer man by two inches. He also has the heavier hands. Derrick Lewis by late knockout.

UFC 216 Odds and Prediction: Can Ray Borg Upset Demetrious Johnson?

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Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse” Johnson will be aiming for an 11th straight title defense as he faces Ray Borg at UFC 216. The massive event will be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Rebooked Fight

The fight was originally scheduled for UFC 215 but was cancelled after Borg pulled out from the fight because of sickness. Borg’s withdrawal drew plenty of criticism, but he’s now okay and hopes to achieve one of the biggest upsets ever in the UFC.

Mighty Mouse is considered to be the best pound for pound fighter on the planet. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2011, when he was defeated by Dominick Cruz.  Meanwhile, Ray Borg has won five of his last six bouts and is coming off a win over Jussier Formiga in March.

Not As Good On His Feet

Johnson is the huge favorite here with -1200 odds at Bovada, while Borg is the underdog at +700. Borg is a great fighter, no question about that. But he is not as effective if he is forced to fight in a stand up battle. Johnson, meanwhile, is a complete fighter. He has all the tools in the box and can fight any style he wants.

Borg is an active fighter who likes to scramble and grapple. He loves to go for takedowns. In fact, he’s scored five takedowns in his last five bouts. But he doesn’t have striking power nor is he as good on his feet as he is on the ground.

That’s going to be a huge problem against Mighty Mouse, especially if you ask Borg:

No Signs of Slowing Down

Demetrious Johnson had some problems against Tim Elliott, who is a good wrestler. But despite that, Mighty Mouse still managed to win convincingly and rather easily via scores of 49-46, 49-46 and 49-45. Still, Borg will look at that tape and try to do better.

It’s hard to pick against Demetrious Johnson, though. The man has proven himself time and again. Mighty Mouse is the UFC’s first and only flyweight champion. He’s defended the belt an incredible 10 times and he’s showing no signs of slowing down.

Borg’s work is cut out for him. Mighty Mouse is going to take him to school. Borg won’t be able to drag this fight to the ground. D.J. is going to keep this fight standing up. He’ll walk away with another easy unanimous decision win here.

Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee Odds and Prediction

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Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee fight for the interim UFC lightweight title at the main event of UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Ferguson vs. Lee remained the headliner despite the UFC adding of the flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson and Ray Borg to the card. That bout was supposed to headline UFC 215 but Borg pulled out of the fight due to injury. As it stands, the interim 155-pound title bout between El Cucuy and the Motown Phenom remains as the main event.

Interim Title Bout

With Conor McGregor taking the rest of the year off, top ranked lightweight Khabib Nurmagomedov has laid low since pulling out of his UFC 209 showdown with Ferguson due to a botched weight cut. Because of those developments, the UFC decided to keep the lightweight division active by ordering the 2nd ranked Ferguson and the #7 guy Lee to fight for the interim belt.

Ferguson has won an incredible 9 fights in a row and is coming off a decision win over former champion Rafael Dos Anjos last November. Lee, meanwhile, has won five consecutive fights, with four coming by stoppage. In his most recent bout, his first headliner, the 24-year old Lee submitted veteran Michael Chisea.

Equally Matched

Ferguson is favored over Lee at -225 against +175 odds at Bovada and most other UFC betting sites. It doesn’t get any better than this for the UFC. These are two equally matched fighters who can hold their own on the feet, in the clinch or on the canvass. It’s hard to pick a winner here because you can make a claim for either side.

Ferguson is a volume striker who has knockout power and who can submit his opponents on the ground. He’s one of the more conditioned fighters in the game and can win anywhere. Six of his last nine wins have come via stoppage.

Takedowns Are Key

Kevin Lee hasn’t lost since his 2015 defeat to Leonardo Santos. Lee is a strong athlete who takes the fight wherever he wants to and win there. He is an underrated striker but his bread and butter are his takedowns and submissions. He has nine takedowns in his last three fights with each of those bouts ending via stoppage.

Ferguson has been in superb form lately but Kevin Lee’s takedowns and superior strength should be the key here. Look for Lee to drag El Cucuy down and derail him from his game plan. Ferguson is excellent on the ground but Lee may be too strong for him on the canvass. It will be hard to stop Tony Ferguson but Kevin Lee will settle for scoring big takedowns. We’re picking Kevin Lee to win by decision or late submission.

UFC Fight Night 117: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Mauricio Rua Odds and Pick

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Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua faces Ovince Saint Preux at the main event of UFC Fight Night 117 in Japan on September 22nd, 2017.

Rua, the former UFC light heavyweight champion, hopes to get back at Saint Preux who knocked him out in just 34 seconds at UFC Fight Night 56 in 2014. What made that loss more sorry was that it was held in Brazil, where Shogun hails from.

Looking for Revenge

Since that loss, though, Rua has been on a renaissance trail, winning three fights in a row. Shogun has fought once per year since 2015 but will be making his second fight of 2017. At age 35, he is no longer in his prime and is no longer the feared fighter he once was. More than looking long-term at the title, Rua is aching for revenge.

Ovince Saint Preux has seen his career slide lately. After fighting Jon Jones for the interim UFC light heavyweight title at UFC 197, he’s suffered back to back losses to Jimi Manuwa and Volkan Oezdemir. With just four wins in his last nine, he needs to get back on track. A win over Shogun puts him back in the mix.

More Respect

Saint Preux is the slight favorite at -170, while Shogun is close by at +150. OSP has a two inch height and four inch reach advantage over Rua and that could play a factor in this fight. Saint Preux is mostly a stand up striker who has power to end the fight with one punch. That’s what happened in their first bout when Shogun tried to rush in and got caught.  But you’ve got to believe that this time around, Rua will have more respect for OSP’s power. If he does so, he will be okay here.

Although he is the smaller man, Rua is the more balanced fighter between the two and he can win in a variety of ways. He should pick apart OSP and slow him down using leg kicks we know that Saint Preux’s endurance has always been his waterloo and if Rua can be patient and just slowly chop down the tree, he should be victorious here.

Shogun’s Advantage

We know Shogun is a legend is Japan during his days fighting for the PRIDE promotion where he was the 2005 Grand Prix champion. With this fight being held at the Super Saitama Arena in Japan, this should be a homecoming of sorts for Shogun. Having mentioned that, it’s interesting to note that Shogun has a record of 10-1 in Japan. With history and the crowd behind him, Shogun should have the advantage.

Saint Preux is in a funk right now. He’s lost four of his last six bouts although he is coming off a win over Marcos Rogerio De Lima in April. Like in their first fight, his best chance of winning this rematch is to go off early and stun Rua. That’s because the longer this goes, it will be to Shogun’s advantage. Shogun is smart and surely he’s learned his lesson. He’s going to take it easy this time around and stop Saint Preux late. We’re picking Mauricio Rua to win by stoppage in the championship rounds.

Luke Rockhold vs. David Branch: Will Rockhold Return in Style?

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Former UFC middleweight champion Luke Rockhold returns to the Octagon after a fifteen month absence as he takes on former WSOF middleweight titleholder David Branch in the main event of UFC Fight Night 116 at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania.

Long Layoff

Luke Rockhold has not fought since losing the middleweight title to the brash Briton Michael Bisping at UFC 199. Bisping upset Rockhold via first round knockout to win the world title for the first time in his career. Rockhold was set to return last November to face Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza at UFC Fight Night 101 but pulled out from the bout with an injury.

Rockhold’s opponent is the former WSOF’s inaugural middleweight and light heavyweight champion David Branch. Branch defended the middleweight title thrice and the light heavyweight crown once. He is on his second tour of duty with the UFC and is coming off a win over Krzysztopf Jotko. Branch had a mediocre 2-2 record during his first stint with the  UFC.

Odds and Prediction

Rockhold is a big -450 favorite against Branch who is currently a huge underdog at +350 and there’s no surprise to that. Luke Rockhold is one of the best all-around fighters in the sport. He is dangerous with his leg kicks and strikes but is equally deadly with his wrestling and submission game. Rockhold’s last five wins have ended in a knockout.

On the other hand, David Branch is a smart fighter who who has solid defense. He is a proven takedown artist with an average of 2.33 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Rockhold only averages 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes but is by far the more productive striker between the two with an average of 4.17 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes. David Branch only averages 1.49 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes.

Will Layoff be A Factor

It will be interesting to see how Rockhold performs after a fifteen month layoff. He’s never lost back to back fights in his career and he’s hoping to avoid that.

Branch meanwhile has won 11 consecutive bouts and hasn’t lost since he was beaten by Rumble Johnson in 2012. Branch has a slight advantage in reach and is the naturally bigger man here. This is a dangerous fight for Luke Rockhold. But Rockhold’s got the experience and the better wrestling game here.

We’re picking Luke Rockhold to win. He’s going to end this fight early and win in style.