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UFC on Fox 29 Odds and Prediction: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

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Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje meet at the main event of UFC on Fox 29 on April 14th, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.

Poirier is coming off an impressive third round victory over former WEC and UFC lightweight champion Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis at UFC Fight Night 120. Moving two fight backward, Poirier beat Jim Miller via majority decision at UFC 208 and his fight with Eddie Alvarez at UFC 211 ended in a no-contest after Alvarez landed illegal knees.

Ranked 5th in the UFC lightweight division, Poirier hopes to move one fight closer to a first ever title shot with a win over Justin Gaethje.

More Polished

Gaethje took the UFC by storm with a violent and scintillating win over Michael Johnson at the TUF 25 Finale. But the Highlight was taken down to earth after being stopped in the third round of his slugfest with Eddie Alvarez at UFC 218.

Despite his 1-1 UFC record, the former WSOF lightweight champion is one of the most exciting fighters owing to his devil may care attitude. Both of Gaethje’s bouts have been named as Fight of the Night winners.

This one’s a pick ‘em fight with the more polished Poirier the slight favorite at -140 and the offensive minded Gaethje the underdog at +120. The Diamond is the more complete fighter here with the more variety of strikes and better accuracy.

He also has a good ground and pound game should this fight go to the canvass. Since losing to Conor McGregor in 2014, Poirier has lost just once and he will without doubt be coming with a lot of confidence to Glendale.

No Defense

Gaethje is without question the most violent man in the promotion. The Highlight throws a lot of punches and tries to overwhelm his opponents with volume and power. He also has wrestling background dating back to his high school days.

Given his power and striking ability, it’s tempting to consider picking Gaethje and the plus money over Poirier. But based on his two UFC bouts, his defense hasn’t been that good, if it exists at all. Gaethje simply wants to fight toe to toe and hope he drops his opponent first. That won’t work against a skilled fighter like Dustin Poirier.

If Poirier doesn’t get caught in a phone booth affair, this is going to be an easy fight for him. He can fight Gaethje at a distance all day or he can take him to the ground and make him uncomfortable. Either way, it’s hard not to choose Poirier. He’s so much better overall.

We’re picking Dustin Poirier to beat Justin Gaethje.

UFC Fight Night 127: Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Volkov Odds and Prediction

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Fabricio Werdum and Alexander Volkov square off in a battle of former champions from rival promotions.

Former Champions

The former UFC Heavyweight champion Werdum and the former Bellator Heavyweight champion Volkov will headline UFC Fight Night 127 (also known as UFC London) on March 17th, 2018 at the O2 Arena in London, England.

Currently ranked #3 in the UFC’s heavyweight division, Werdum will be looking for his third straight win. He is 3-1 since losing the UFC heavyweight title to Stipe Miocic in 2016, with his unanimous decision loss to Alistair Overeem in July 2017 the only blot in his resume in his last four bouts. Werdum has a professional MMA record of 23-7-1.

Tough To Pick

Volkov, meanwhile, is looking to stay unbeaten since moving over to the UFC in 2016. The 29-year old has beaten Timothy Johnson, Roy Nelson and Stefan Struve in his first three bouts with the UFC. Volkov is currently ranked #7 in the standings and is 29-6 in his MMA career. A  victory over Werdum should put Volkov in the Top 5 and include him in title conversations.

This one’s going to be tough to pick. Werdum is the favorite here at -205 at Bovada, while Volkov is the underdog at +165.

Despite being almost 41-years old, Werdum remains one of the best in the business. As he’s gotten older, Werdum’s striking has improved and he’s shown the ability to finish fights on his feet. However, it’s his grappling and ground game that make him unique in his weight class.

Best Submission Artist

Werdum is a top tier Brazilian Jiu Jitsu expert. He’s won wrestling medals,  BJJ championships and has 11 MMA wins by submission. Werdum is considered as the best submission artist in the history of the heavyweight  division and will have a huge advantage if this fight goes down to the canvass.

Volkov is comfortable on the ground but he is a striker at heart. 19 of his victories have been by knockout and he has been accurate with his strikes in his first three UFC bouts. He’s a very active fighter who has a top notch ground and pound game if he gets to top position the mat.

Not An Easy Fight

It’s not going to be an easy fight for Werdum. Volkov has the advantage in striking and given his edge in reach and size, he has the ability to strike from the outside and avoid getting taken down by Werdum. If Werdum can’t take him down, Volkov would be content with fighting him at a distance and walking away with a decision.

But if Werdum gets him to the ground, it’s going to be another story. The Brazilian is going to wear down Volkov and take him to deep waters. Volkov has gotten the better of strikers in his young UFC career. But we’re not sure whether he has what it takes to prevent the best submission artist in the weight class from taking him down.

We’re picking Fabricio Werdum to pick up the victory here.

UFC on Fox 28: Ovince St. Preux vs. Ilir Latifi Odds and Prediction

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Ovince St. Preux and Ilir Latifi finally collide at UFC on Fox 28 on February 24th, 2018 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

These two light heavyweight contenders were supposed to fight each other at UFC on Fox 27 but Latifi pulled out of that bout with an undisclosed injury. But after Yoel Romero vs. David Branch was pulled out from the Orlando event, the St. Preux vs. Latifi showdown was reset.

Getting What He Asked For

St. Preux is on a three-fight winning streak, earning post fight bonuses in each of his last two wins. In his most recent bout, OSP knocked out Corey Anderson via head kick at UFC 217. Prior to that, St. Preux won back to back fights by Von Flue choke. OSP had three straight losses before this current streak.

Latifi is 4-1 in his last five bouts. He is coming off a unanimous decision win over Tyson Pedro at UFC 215. Prior to that victory, Latifi lost via knockout to Ryan Bader. The 34-year old Swedish fighter hoped to keep keep his fight with St. Preux despite the injury. He’s getting what he asked for.

A Powerful Striker

St. Preux is the slight underdog here (-125 at Realbet.eu), while Latifi opens as a mild favorite at -105. OSP is a big strong athlete who has recorded finishes in eight of his last nine wins. He is a powerful striker with an 80 inch reach advantage. St. Preux is looking to win four fights in a row since 2013 and is coming off back to back performance of the night honors.

Likewise, Latifi is a powerful striker who has recorded knockouts due to punches in three of his last five victories. He is also comfortable on the ground with four submission wins and four takedowns landed in his last fight. But against an aggressive striker like OSP, his chin may not hold.

Has Momentum Going

Latifi fought just once last year and is giving up seven inches in reach to St. Preux. If those advantages aren’t enough, OSP finished 2017 strong and has momentum going his way. St. Preux has the advantage on his feet as he is going to test not just Latifi’s defense butt his chin as well.

If Latifi decides to take this fight to the ground, OSP also has a good ground game. St. Preux has recorded six career wins by submission so Latifi can’t take him lightly on the canvass. Having said that, Ovince St. Preux has the advantage here, either way. He’s going to continue to climb the standings and pick up another win here. We’re picking Ovince St. Preux to pick up his fourth straight win.

UFC on Fox 27 Odds and Prediction: Ronaldo Souza vs. Derek Brunson

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Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza takes on Derek Brunson on January 27th, 2018 at the main event of UFC on Fox 27 at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Second Time

This will be the second time that these two middleweight contenders are going to fight each other. The first time they met was at the Strikeforce promotion in 2012, where Souza recorded a quick 41-second knockout of Brunson. Souza signed with the UFC the following year and has won seven of nine bouts.

Brunson meanwhile, immediately went to the UFC following his loss to Jacare and has compiled a record of 9-3 under the UFC banner. Three of Brunson’s last three fights were outside U.S. soil but for this encounter, he will be fighting in front of his hometown fans in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Contrasting Styles

Between two decorated octagon veterans, this one’s a pick ‘em fight. Jacare is the slight favorite at -160 while Brunson came back as the underdog at +140. This should be both fun and exciting to watch with two fighters trying to impose their contrasting styles on each other.

According to Fightmetric, Souza is averaging 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44.44% accuracy. Meanwhile Brunson lands 3.2 significant strikes per minute at a 46% connect rate.

Having said that, it’s pretty clear that Jacare might want to bring this fight to the ground rather than slug it out with Brunson on his feet. Brunson meanwhile is well aware that Jacare has 17 wins by submission, so he’d rather take his chances standing up rather than defending the Brazilian’s submission attempts on the ground.

Not The Same Fighter

When he’s at his best, Jacare Souza is one of the sport’s premier grapplers and wrestlers. As we said, he has 17 wins by submission and that represents 58% of his total victories to date. He is coming off the first knockout loss of his career against Robert Whitaker but he’s never lost back to back fights before in his career. The only concern here is that Souza is already 38 years old and while he still has the ability to strike with the best in business, his reflexes are no longer what they used to be. Just take a look at the Whitaker bout.

That’s where Brunson gets excited. After his back to back losses to Robert Whitaker ( by KO ) and Anderson Silva ( controversial loss ), Brunson has picked up consecutive knockout wins over Daniel Kelly and Lyoto Machida. He is one of the biggest punchers in the middleweight division with his last six wins coming via knockout. Not only does Brunson have the punching power, he also has a 77 inch reach that makes him an ever dangerous striker. Although he isn’t adept to the ground and Souza is, Brunson has never been submitted in his career.

Submissions Are Key

Submissions are the key here because it’s where Souza has made a living and it’s where Brunson has never tasted defeat. In a game between striker and grappler, it’s almost always good to beat on the latter. In this case though, Brunson doesn’t only have a five inch reach advantage on Jacare, he also has never been submitted nor has he ever been taken down in his UFC career.

Brunson has the speed  to counter every takedown that Souza tries and has the power to end this fight at any moment. Given Jacare’s age and decline in recent fights plus the fact that Brunson is fighting in his hometown, we’re picking the American Derek Brunson to win this rematch via knockout.

UFC 220 Odds and Prediction: Daniel Cormier vs. Volkan Oezdemir

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Daniel Cormier will defend the UFC light heavyweight title against Volkan Oezdemir on January 20th, 2018 at UFC 220 in Boston’s TD Garden.

Cormier was recently reinstated as the UFC’s 205-pound king after Jon Jones failed yet another drug test. Prior to that, Jones stopped Cormier cold during their rematch at UFC to reclaim the UFC light heavyweight crown. The loss was Cormier’s second to Jones and only the second loss of his MMA career.

Volkan Oezdemir is one of the fastest rising fighters in the UFC. A winner of three straight bouts, Oezdemir is coming off a victory over the highly touted Jimi Manuwa in July. Prior to that, Oezdemir scored a first round KO of Misha Cirkunov and came away with a split decision win over Ovince St. Preux.  

Untested Ground Game

DC is the favorite here at -300 while Oezdemir came back at +240.

Oezdemir has that one punch knockout power in him so he always has a shot to win any fight. But against Cormier, he’ll be fighting an opponent who has seen it all inside that Octagon. Cormier is one of the sport’s best grapplers owing to his collegiate and Olympic wrestling background. Against a powerful striker like Oezdemir, you bet he’s going to take this fight to the ground.

Oezdemir has real knockout power and is primarily a striker because of his kickboxing background. On his feet, he averages 6.12 significant strikes per minute landed but in three UFC fights, he has zero takedowns landed.

This is going to be his problem against Cormier who is a supreme wrestler. DC averages just 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes but he doesn’t need to many of them. Once he gets his opponent to the ground, it’s going to be a grind.

DC is Too Smart

There is no denying that Volkan Oezdemir has the power to knock out anybody. While Cormier has a granite chin, we saw him get knocked out by Jon Jones due to voluminous strikes. Oezdemir is well capable of doing the same, that is if he withstands Cormier’s ground attack early in the fight.

We’ve seen this in many of DC’s older fights. He takes his opponents down early and punishes them on the ground. In the later rounds, his opponents get weary and Cormier begins to take over. Looks like this will be how this fight unfolds.

DC is too smart to stand and trade with Oezdemir. He’s going to take away his punching power by forcing him to the ground early. Once Oezdemir’s pop is gone, DC’s going to take care of this fight.

We’re picking Daniel Cormier to win this bout by decision.

UFC Fight Night 120: Anthony Pettis vs. Dustin Poirier Odds and Prediction

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Former UFC Lightweight Anthony Pettis returns to the octagon at the main event of UFC Fight Night 120 at the Ted Constant Convocation Center at Norfolk, Virginia on November 11th, 2017.  The 13th ranked Pettis will face 8th ranked lightweight Dustin Poirier in an attempt to climb back to the top of the 155-pound weight class he used to rule.

Fall From The Top

Pettis’ fall from the top  is well documented. After yielding the UFC lightweight title to Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 185, Pettis lost back to back bouts to Edson Barboza and Eddie Alvarez, forcing him to make a surprise move down to the featherweight division. But after missing weight during an interim featherweight title bout (which he lost badly) against Max Holloway at UFC 206, Pettis decided to return to his natural weight class.

Showtime’s 155-pound return against Jim Miller at UFC 216 last July was successful. Not only did he break out of his slump, he looked like the Anthony Pettis of old in that fight. But Pettis’ recent struggles have pulled him down outside the Top 10 in the rankings. He asked for Poirier in August and with the “Diamond” obliging, the UFC booked the fight right away.

Controversial Fight

Dustin Poirier is coming off a controversial fight at UFC 211 against another former lightweight champion in Eddie Alvarez. That bout ended in a no-contest after Alvarez landed several illegal knees on Poirier. Prior to that fight, Poirier won five of six fights, losing only to Michael Johnson during that stretch.

Poirier has always been one of the gatekeepers of the division. If he can pick up a win though against a former champion like Pettis, his stock will surely soar. Diamond has been fighting in the UFC since 2011 but has never fought for the title. A win over Pettis should put him in striking distance of that long awaited title shot.

Odds and Prediction

Showtime Pettis is the favorite in this bout at -125 while Poirier is the underdog at +105. This is going to be a fun fight between two fighters who can finish the fight on the feet as well as on the ground. Both are excellent strikers who can produce knockouts in the stand up game and come up with creative submission moves on the canvass. Having said that, this fight is likely not going to the scorecards.

Both fighters are evenly matched up but Pettis is more athletic and may have the advantage here because of his creativity. Showtime looked great in his last fight and he seems to have broken out of his slump. Poirier is no easy picking but Pettis should win this fight with his speed and unpredictability.

We’re picking Anthony Pettis to win this fight by stoppage due to strikes.  

UFC 217: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Rose Namajunas Odds and Prediction

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Joanna Jedrzejczyk will defend the UFC women’s strawweight title against Rose Namajunas in one of the three massive title fights slated for UFC 217 at the Madison Square Garden in New York on November 4th, 2017.

Jedrzejczyk has been on a dominating reign as UFC women’s strawweight champion. She is unbeaten in 14 total MMA fights and has successfully defended her belt five times since defeating UFC  women’s strawweight inaugural champion, Carla Esparza. That’s an impressive feat by itself, but Joanna has no plans in slowing down.

Solid Favorite

Namajunas has won four of her last five bouts and is coming off a 2nd round submission win over Michelle Waterson last April. The UFC’s 4th ranked female strawweight fought for the inaugural title in 2014 but lost to Carla Esparza. She hopes to win the belt in her second attempt but will be hard-pressed to do so against one of the top fighters in the UFC.

Jedrzejczyk is a staggering -600 favorite at Bovada and other UFC betting sites, while her challenger who is currently at +400. Jedrzejczyk needs no introduction. She is the best pound for pound female fighter in the UFC today. A former Muay Thai and Kickboxing world champion, Jedrzejczyk uses her legs and knees better than most fighters on the circuit.

Deadly Ground Game

Joanna is a highly efficient striker with great accuracy and a good boxing background. Although most of her fights have ended in a decision, she definitely can finish off her opponent. If this fight stays on the feet, Jedrzejczyk will be unbeatable.

Despite the fact that she doesn’t have a knockout under her belt, Namajunas can hold her own in striking. She is a pressure fighter who likes to mix her jabs with kicks. But what makes Namajunas deadly is her ground game. Five of her seven wins have come via submission. With her upper body strength and long legs, she is dangerous when she gets position on the canvass. One thing you’ve got to watch out for is her going for that rear naked choke.

Has Passed The Test

With her skill-set, Namajunas could be the kryptonite for Jedrzejczyk. If she takes the champion down, she won’t just take her off her biggest strength which is striking, but Rose will have the opportunity to win because she is an excellent submission artist.

But it’s hard to go against someone who is perhaps the best female fighter out there today. Jedrzejczyk has beaten every challenger that has been thrown at her and has passed the test against excellent submission artists like Claudia Gadelha and Jessica Penne. She’s going to keep this fight on the feet and outstrike Namajunas all night long.

We’re picking Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win this one by unanimous decision.

UFC 217: Stephen Thompson vs. Jorge Masvidal Odds and Prediction

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Stephen Thompson faces Jorge Masvidal at UFC 217 at the Madison Square Garden in New York on November 4th, 2017. The event will be headlined by the middleweight title bout between champion Michael Bisping and former UFC welterweight king Georges St. Pierre, but this welterweight showdown could steal the thunder.

Coming off Losses

Thompson will be fighting for the first time since back to back title fights against UFC welterweight champ, Tyron Woodley. Wonderboy came within a whisker of winning the belt twice, earning a majority draw at UFC 205 and then dropping a 48-47, 48-47 and 47-47 majority decision loss to Woodley during their rematch at UFC 209. Prior to those two bouts, the South Carolina native won an impressive nine consecutive bouts.

Masvidal is also coming off a loss, having been beaten by Demian Maia at UFC 211. Prior to that defeat, Masvidal went on a three fight winning streak, beating Ross Pearson, Jake Ellenberger and Donald Cerrone in succession. Gamebred’s last 8 fights record of 4-4 is very deceptive. He has been silently climbing the ranks and improving his game. Masvidal has been waiting for a big opportunity like this and you bet he’s going all out.

Odds and Prediction

Wonderboy Thompson is currently the favorite at -155 ,while Jorge Masvidal is the underdog at +135.

This pick’em fight should be a good one and has the potential to be the fight of the night. Wonderboy is a decorated kickboxer who also has good power in his punches. Thompson’s legs are long while his kicks and punches are strong, making him a dangerous opponent in standup striking.  When he gets taken down, though, he isn’t as good on his back.

Masvidal is a brawler who lands powerful punches in the stand up. He’s one of the tougher fighters in the division owing to his Miami street fighting background. Gamebred is also quick and athletic enough to land takedowns plus he has good grappling skills. Thompson should have a handful against Masvidal standing up but when the fight goes to the ground, it’s got to be Masvidal’s fight to win.

Thompson will look for the quick win here but given that Masvidal has been knocked out only once in his 12 losses, it’s going to be frustrating. Masvidal, meanwhile, will try to make this ugly, whether on the feet or on the ground. He’s gonna try and make Thompson do other things aside from striking. This fight should go the distance with Masvidal winning by a narrow decision. We’re going with the upset here and picking Masvidal to win on points.

UFC Fight Night 118: Will Cowboy End His Losing Streak?

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Donald Cerrone looks to snap out of the first losing streak of his MMA career when he faces Darren Till in the main event of UFC Fight Night 188 in Gdansk, Poland on October 21st, 2017.

Back To Back Losses

Cerrone is known as one of the UFC’s busiest fighters with at least four fights per year since 2013. But this year, he’s fought just twice and surprisingly has lost both. Cowboy was knocked out by Jorge Masvidal last January and then suffered a unanimous decision loss to Robbie Lawler in a high profile fight at UFC 214 last July. Cerrone hopes to get back on the winning side against a relative newcomer he said he never heard of before.

Darren Till has been in the UFC since 2015 but not many people know him. That’s because three of his four UFC bouts have been in the prelims of non-PPV events. But he’s unbeaten at 15-0-1 including a UFC record of 3-0-1. Till is coming off a September 2nd victory against Bojan Velickovic and will be making a quick turnaround for this one.

Pretty Close

Surprisingly, the odds for this one are pretty close. Cerrone is the slight favorite at -155 while Till the underdog at +125 at Bovada. If you take a look at his fight resume, chances are you won’t recognize any names there. But just because Till hasn’t fought quality opposition in the UFC doesn’t mean he is easy picking for Cowboy.

Till has has one-punch knockout power and that’s what makes him very dangerous. His athleticism and awkward style could turn out to be a nightmare for Cerrone, who is getting up there in the age department. Remember that Cowboy is coming off the first back to back losses of his MMA career so he may be one the way down. But then again, maybe not.

Explosiveness vs. Experience

Although he clearly lost to Masvidal, Cerrone fought Lawler tooth and nail. It was a back and forth fight and unfortunately it was just a three rounder. Lawler won that fight by a hairline and had it gone longer, who knows if Cerrone would’ve picked up the victory. Cowboy’s Muay Thai background makes this an exciting striking affair.

Cerrone has the advantage if this fight goes to the ground because he has more fight experience. But given Till’s explosiveness, he can end this fight at any moment. That’s what makes him dangerous, especially since three of Cowboy’s last five losses have been by knockout to excellent strikers in Anthony Pettis, Rafael Dos Anjos and Masvidal.

This one’s a pick ‘em fight but you’ve got to go with the veteran here. He’s been here and done that. Till has a great career ahead of him but Cerrone is a big step up in opposition for him. We’re picking Donald Cerrone to win this one by submission or decision.

UFC 216 Odds and Prediction: Can Ray Borg Upset Demetrious Johnson?

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Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse” Johnson will be aiming for an 11th straight title defense as he faces Ray Borg at UFC 216. The massive event will be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Rebooked Fight

The fight was originally scheduled for UFC 215 but was cancelled after Borg pulled out from the fight because of sickness. Borg’s withdrawal drew plenty of criticism, but he’s now okay and hopes to achieve one of the biggest upsets ever in the UFC.

Mighty Mouse is considered to be the best pound for pound fighter on the planet. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2011, when he was defeated by Dominick Cruz.  Meanwhile, Ray Borg has won five of his last six bouts and is coming off a win over Jussier Formiga in March.

Not As Good On His Feet

Johnson is the huge favorite here with -1200 odds at Bovada, while Borg is the underdog at +700. Borg is a great fighter, no question about that. But he is not as effective if he is forced to fight in a stand up battle. Johnson, meanwhile, is a complete fighter. He has all the tools in the box and can fight any style he wants.

Borg is an active fighter who likes to scramble and grapple. He loves to go for takedowns. In fact, he’s scored five takedowns in his last five bouts. But he doesn’t have striking power nor is he as good on his feet as he is on the ground.

That’s going to be a huge problem against Mighty Mouse, especially if you ask Borg:

No Signs of Slowing Down

Demetrious Johnson had some problems against Tim Elliott, who is a good wrestler. But despite that, Mighty Mouse still managed to win convincingly and rather easily via scores of 49-46, 49-46 and 49-45. Still, Borg will look at that tape and try to do better.

It’s hard to pick against Demetrious Johnson, though. The man has proven himself time and again. Mighty Mouse is the UFC’s first and only flyweight champion. He’s defended the belt an incredible 10 times and he’s showing no signs of slowing down.

Borg’s work is cut out for him. Mighty Mouse is going to take him to school. Borg won’t be able to drag this fight to the ground. D.J. is going to keep this fight standing up. He’ll walk away with another easy unanimous decision win here.