Tag Archives: UFC predictions

Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Conor McGregor Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , ,

The fight that has intrigued the world is finally on.

After more than two years of teasing, boxing’s undefeated pound for pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. and MMA’s concurrent UFC two-division champion Conor McGregor will face each other on August 26th, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Both Mayweather and McGregor made the announcement via social media. Showtime Sports, who will air the event, also officially announced the fight on Wednesday:

Impossible Now Done

Mayweather vs. McGregor looked like a dream fight when McGregor first told Conan O’Brien in 2015 that he would fight Mayweather if the opportunity was presented to him. The Irishman has never boxed, professionally or as an amateur, although he is considered one of the best strikers in the sport of MMA.

Mayweather himself was already retired and had not fought since beating Andre Berto in September of 2015 in what he called was the final bout of his storied boxing career. However, Mayweather had already retired before and has always said that he would return to the ring for a hundred million dollars. With that small opening, both camps tried to make a deal.

There have been several times in the last two years that the fight was reported to be close to being done. But it was never closer to reality than when Mayweather booked the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas for August 26th. Although it was subsequently reported that Mayweather cancelled the reservation, the fight itself was officially announced this Wednesday. What fight fans once thought was impossible is now done.

A Mismatch?

UFC President Dana White also revealed on Wednesday that Mayweather vs. McGregor will be held at the T-Mobile Arena (although there has been no official announcement on the venue) and that the bout will be fought at the boxing junior middleweight limit of 154 pounds. The pair would also use 10-ounce gloves and while White didn’t say it, it’s likely that it will be fought under pure boxing rules. McGregor has always maintained his willingness to fight Mayweather under boxing rules, although that may not be a good idea.

Put the pair in an MMA octagon with four inch gloves and McGregor will have the advantage. The Notorious has a powerful left hand that can knock anybody out, Mayweather included. But the pair will be fighting in a boxing ring where Mayweather has eluded the great boxer likes of Pacquiao, Cotto and Canelo. With that kind of real estate to work his bicycle, McGregor may find it difficult to find his target. Even Max Kellerman thinks that McGregor may not land a punch on Mayweather. That may sound like an exaggeration, but Kellerman may have at the very least meant this is a clear mismatch.

Odds and Prediction

Mayweather is a -1100 favorite to defeat McGregor, who is a sharp underdog at +700. The odds are expected to move once the Irish money starts coming in. But in reality, this line reflects the mismatch we could be seeing. Mayweather was one of boxing’s best defensive genius. He was a very smart fighter who employed the hit and run tactic like no other. If the fastest of opponents in Pacquiao and the hardest hitting in Cotto could not lay their hands on him, what chance does McGregor have?

Conor McGregor may be here primarily for the money. He’s set to make more for this single bout than what he’ll earn in his entire MMA career. But you can’t count him out because he does have punching power and speed. If his left hand connects, it’s going to be a different story. The problem is, well, if it doesn’t connect. Without his leg kicks setting up his left hand, it’s going to be a long night for Conor McGregor. Mayweather is going to dance his way to $100M. Mayweather wins this easily. No knockdowns, no dramatics. It’s just going to be a boxing lesson from the best boxer ever. Floyd Mayweather Jr. by a very very unanimous decision.

UFC Fight Night 111: Can Holly Holm Snap Out of Her Losing Streak?

Sports News & Picks, , , , , ,

Holly Holm hopes to end a three-fight losing streak as she faces the tough Bethe Correia in the five round main event of UFC Fight Night 111 on June 17th, 2017 at the Singapore Indoor Stadium in Kallang, Singapore.

Break The Streak

A former 8-time world boxing champion, Holly Holm was on top of the MMA world in 2015 after becoming the first fighter to defeat Ronda Rousey at UFC 193 in Australia. Holm’s second round stoppage of Rousey won her the UFC women’s bantamweight title and opened up a lot of opportunities for her.

But instead of waiting for a Ronda Rousey rematch, Holm decided to fight Miesha Tate at UFC 196 in March of 2016. That turned out to be tragic, as Tate bucked the odds to submit Holm and take the title from her. Things turned for the worse as Holm lost her next bout to Valentina Shevchenko in July of 2016. She also lost to Germaine de Randamie in the first ever women’s featherweight title bout last February. With three straight losses standing in front of her, Holm looks to break the streak and get back on track.

Not The Same

Bethe Correia herself will be trying to get back on the winning track. After nine consecutive victories, she suffered her first defeat at the hands of Ronda Rousey. Since that loss, Correia has been just 1-1-1 in her last three bouts. She figured in a majority draw against Marion Reneau in her most recent bout last March. When in good form, Correia is an aggressive striker who has good combinations and excellent counter punching skills. The problem with her is that she’s never been the same since losing to Rousey, with just one win in three outings.

Same Fighting Style

Holm is the odds on favorite at -500, while Correia is the underdog at +400. But don’t let the lines deceive you. This is going to be a dogfight because both fighters have the same style. They both like to strike and employ leg kicks. Likewise, both are struggling to pick up victories in recent fights.

This may go down to who has more mental fortitude between the two. Holm and Correia look like they are shells of themselves at the moment. The big plus money on Correia is tempting but Holm does have a five inch reach advantage and may have more punching power.

With those advantages, we’re going with Holly Holm in this fight. Holly Holm is going to snap out of her losing streak with a unanimous decision win over Bethe Correia.

UFC Fight Night 110: Derrick Lewis vs. Mark Hunt Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , ,

Two of the UFC’s heaviest hitters square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night 110 on June 11th, 2017 at the Spark Arena in Auckland, New Zealand.

On A Winning Streak

Derrick Lewis has won his last six fights, five of them by knockout. The Black Beast is coming off a knockout of Travis Browne in Halifax, Nova Scotia last February 19th. The surging Lewis owns victories over Gabriel Gonzaga and Roy Nelson during his winning streak, as well. Lewis is primarily a striker with some boxing background. He only averages 0.72 takedowns per 15 minutes on a 33% accuracy, while 14 of his last 15 wins have been by knockout. Lewis averages 3.72 significant strikes landed per minute and has a 79-inch reach which should be crucial in this matchup.

One Punch KO Power

Mark Hunt, meanwhile, is coming off a knockout loss to Alistair Overeem at UFC 209. The Super Samoan has lost 4 of his last 6 bouts, although one of those losses (to Brock Lesnar) has been overturned to a no-decision. Hunt averages 3.02 significant strikes per minute on a 43.9% accuracy. But with him, it’s not the numbers that matter. Hunt is the king of the walk-off one punch knockout so any fight with him in it can end anytime regardless of statistics. Like Lewis, he doesn’t fancy takedowns, averaging only 0.62 takedowns per 15 minutes. Hunt is already 43 years old and has been hit or miss lately. But with the power he packs, he needs only one big punch to win against anybody.

Odds And Prediction

Anytime you have two equally powerful monsters, it’s got to be an even fight and his one’s understandably as close that as it can be. Lewis is a -125 favorite, while Hunt is even money as a +100 underdog. Fair enough. This should be an old school bar brawl where these two fighters will stand in front of each other at the center of the Octagon, trading bombs until one of them falls asleep on the canvas.

We know Mark Hunt will be the crowd favorite with this fight being in New Zealand. We believe he may also possess the harder punch, hence he is the more dangerous fighter between the two. But we’ve seen how these two have fared in recent fights. Lewis not only has a seven inch reach advantage, he has also shown better form as of late. This fight isn’t going the distance.  Derrick Lewis is going to knock out Mark Hunt.

UFC 212 Betting: Why Claudia Gadelha Will Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , ,

A women’s strawweight matchup between top contenders Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz has been added to the UFC 212 PPV event which will be held at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 3rd, 2017.

Another Title Shot For Winner

Gadelha and Kowalkiewicz are the 2nd and 3rd ranked fighters in the UFC women’s strawweight division. The two have also already faced and lost to current champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk in the past and the victor here could very well be on her way to a second crack at the world title.

Gadelha has lost twice in her career but both losses came at the hands of Jedrzejczyk and the first one, which was a non-title fight, came via close split decision. She’s 2-2 in her last four bouts but won her most recent outing via decision over Cortney Casey at UFC Fight Night 100 last November of 2016.

Kowalkiewicz meanwhile opened her UFC career with a string of three victories that included a split decision win over Rose Namajunas at UFC 201. That bout was a title eliminator and it earned her a shot at Jedrzejczyk at the monumental UFC 205 last November. Kowalkiewicz lost to her compatriot via clear unanimous decision.

Odds and Prediction

Gadelha is the favorite here at -300 while Kowalkiewicz is a +240 underdog.  The key here will be takedowns as Gadelha is a takedown machine with an average of 4.59 takedowns per fifteen minutes at an accuracy of 57.7%. Kowalkiewicz hasn’t shown any signs of a ground game in the UFC and to win this fight, she must keep it on her feet where she has the advantage.

The Polish fighter is averaging 4.56 significant strikes landed per minute as compared to Gadelha’s average of 3.59. Kowalkiewicz is a smart fighter who knows how to adjust and take what her opponent gives her. She doesn’t force the issue but is pretty effective doing it. She’s won 8 of her 11 bouts by decision, so she’s a tough girl.

Claudia Gadelha just doesn’t seem to be a good matchup for Karolina Kowalkiewicz. While Kowalkiewicz hasn’t shown any ground game, she’s been taken down thrice in her last two fights. Against Gadelha, she won’t be comfortable on the canvass. So unless she keeps the fight on her feet for fifteen minutes, I don’t see how she can topple Gadelha who hasn’t lost in Brazil.

It’s not going to be a walk in the park but we’re picking Claudia Gadelha to beat Karolina KowalKiewicz.

Misha Cirkunov vs. Volkan Oezdemir Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , ,

Misha Cirkunov and Volkan Oezdemir battle in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night Stockholm on May 28th, 2017 at the Ericsson Globe Arena in  Sweden. The event will be headlined by Sweeden’s own Alexander ‘Swedish Mauler’ Gustafsson and the hard-hitting Glover Teixeira.

Back in Business

After contract negotiations earlier in the year appeared to go sour, the UFC and Misha Cirkunov finally came to terms on a new deal and the Latvian contender is back in business. Cirkunov has been on a roll, winning eight fights in a row, including his first four bouts under the UFC banner. All of those eight victories have been by stoppage, hence making him one of the more dangerous new contenders at 205 pounds. Cirkunov is now ranked #7 in the UFC Light Heavyweight division and a win over the 5th ranked Oezdemir will put him even higher on the ranking ladder.

Swiss Oezdemir took a fight against Ovince St. Preux on short notice at UFC Fight Night 104 and surprised many by outworking OSP and hacking out a win over the former interim title contender. The win over St. Preux was his promotional debut and he’s won three in a row since suffering his first loss at Bellator 115 three years ago. He looks to solidify his hold of a Top 5 ranking and increase his chances of earning a title fight.

Odds and Prediction

Cirkunov is the favorite here at -350 while Oezdemir is at +290. Oezdemir lands an impressive 5.47 strikes per minute, which is more than Cirkunov’s 3.97. However, the real striking story is on the other side of the stats, Cirkunov absorbs only 2.28 strikes per minute while Oezdemir gets hit with 5.07 striker per minute. That’s a significant difference especially since Oezdemir is fighting a powerful striker who has a two inch reach advantage in Cirkunov.

The grappling side is one-sided as Cirkunov is a submission artist at heart. Five of his last seven bouts have ended in a submission and despite his punching power, he likes to take his opponents to the ground and tap them out. It’s also interesting to note that Oezdemir’s only defeat in 2014 came by submission. It could turn out to be a good fight but the better man will win. We’re picking Cirkunov to win this fight whichever way.

Alexander Gustafsson in the UFC Octagon Ring

UFC Fight Night 109: Alexander Gustafsson vs. Glover Teixeira Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , ,

Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira headline the UFC’s later foray in Sweden. The two former Light Heavyweight title contenders will square off in a five round bout at the Ericsson Globe in Stockholm, Sweden on May 28th, 2017.

One More Crack At The Title?

Both Fighters are looking for one more crack at the world title. Gustafsson got two chances, one against Jon Jones in 2013 and another to Daniel Cormier in 2015. He lost both bouts by close decision. In fact, some believe he beat Jon Jones at UFC 165. Those heartbreaks have not prevented the Swedish Mauler from working his way back to the top one more time. Gustafsson has split his last six bouts at 3-3, with his losses coming to Jones, Cormier and Anthony Johnson. Gus is coming off an impressive unanimous decision win over Jan Blachowicz at UFC Fight Night 93.

Glover Teixeira also challenged Jon Jones for the world title at UFC 172 in 2014. Jones beat him by clear and wide unanimous decision. Since then, Teixeira has managed to return to the top of the rankings with stoppage wins over Ovince St. Preux, Patrick Cummins and Rashad Evans. However, he is coming off a 13-second knockout loss to Anthony ‘Rumble” Johnson at UFC 202.

Odds and Prediction

This one’s as close as it gets. Gustafsson is favored at -175 While Teixeira is the slight underdog at +150.

The home court advantage almost always is a factor. In this case, Gustafsson loves to fight in his hometown. In fact, the Swedish Mauler is 5-1 when fighting in Stockholm although it’s worth noting that his last fight there was a first round KO loss to Rumble Johnson. However, he isn’t fighting Rumble Johnson here.

Glover Teixeira may possess the same power as Anthony Johnson but he is no Rumble. Against a much younger, more athletic and equally powerful opponent like Gustafsson, Teixeira can be overwhelmed. Remember that in his last bout, Rumble Johnson ( yes he too ) rushed him and knocked him out in 13 seconds. Turn the tables now: Gus is no Rumble Johnson either. But the Swede is just as aggressive and relentless. We’re just not confident of Teixeira once he gets swarmed.

It’s a pick‘em fight but we’re going with the younger and the rangier Alexander Gustafsson to win a striking battle here.

UFC 211 Odds and Preview: Frankie Edgar vs. Yair Rodriguez

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , , ,

Former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar faces the up and coming Yair Rodriguez in a featherweight contest at UFC 211 at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas on May 13th.

Just The Gatekeeper?

Frankie Edgar has seen it all and has been there in the sport. After losing his lightweight title to Benson Henderson, losing to Bendo in the rematch and losing to Jose Aldo in his first bout at featherweight, Edgar has won six of seven bouts in impressive fashion. The only loss for Edgar during this period was his UFC 200 defeat to Jose Aldo (again) in his most recent bout. After losing his last three title fights, many wonder if Frankie is simply the gatekeeper now. The Answer hopes to prove them wrong with a win over the fast rising Yair Rodriguez.

Rising Star

Yair Rodriguez is the rising star at featherweight. After winning the first season of TUF Latin America, Rodriguez has remained perfect in his UFC career. El Pantera opened with victories over Charles Rosa, Dan Hooker and Andre Fili. He then headlined his first event last August where he beat Alex Caceres via split decision. Rodriguez’s last three wins have been fight of the night bonus winners. He is looking for the signature victory that will push him to the upper echelon in his weight class. He will have that opportunity against the battle tested Frankie Edgar.

Odds And Prediction

Frankie Edgar is a -175 favorite against Yair Rodriguez, who is at +150 right now. No doubt Frankie has the edge in experience but Yair Rodriguez has the tools to beat Frankie Edgar. First, Edgar isn’t a known knockout artists so this opens up the opportunity for Rodriguez to take his chances with his unorthodox striking. El Pantera’s superb striking skills should put Frankie Edgar on his toes and make him hesitant to shoot for takedowns.

Should Edgar be successful in taking down Rodriguez, Yair has shown much improved ground game which shouldn’t keep him on the ground for too long for Frankie to dominate. Rodriguez also has freak athleticism which can free him in the clinch. In short, we think Rodriguez is going to turn this into a striking battle and he has a three inch reach advantage. For sure Yair Rodriguez is a live underdog. We’re picking him to beat Frankie Edgar in a competitive fight.

Repeat or Revenge? Junior Dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , ,

UFC Heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic defends his belt for the second time against former champion Junior Dos Santos in the main event of UFC 211 on May 13th, 2017 at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

The bout will be a rematch of the headliner of UFC on Fox 13 in 2014 where Dos Santos beat Miocic via unanimous decision in a back and forth slugfest that earned Fight of The night Honors. That defeat was the last setback in Miocic’s career. He’s been on a tear ever since.

Breaking The Curse

Miocic earned worldwide recognition by breaking the Curse of Cleveland. He became Cleveland’s first major sport world champion in 52 years. Stipe earned that distinction by knocking out then champion Fabricio Werdum in the latter’s own backyard in Brazil at UFC 198. After that, Miocic successfully defended the UFC Heavyweight title with a first round knockout of Alistair Overeem at UFC 203. Miocic’s last five victories have been by knockout, with the last three all coming in the very first round.

Dos Santos, meanwhile, is coming off a solid victory over the surging Ben Rothwell at UFC Fight Night 86 in April of 2016. Two fights earlier, Dos Santos beat Miocic on points. Junior is famously known as the first fighter to beat Cain Velasquez, although he lost his next two bouts against Cardio Cain. His fight resume is a list of the who’s who of the heavyweight division, while Dos Santos is looking at one final crack at the world title.

The Odds and Prediction

Miocic vs. Dos Santos is a tough one to pick. The odds have installed Miocic a -175 favorite against Junior’s +150 but in the UFC’s heavyweight division, but it takes just one punch to change destiny.

Miocic is a striking machine who averages 5.03 significant strikes landed per minute at an accuracy of 50.4%. That’s dangerous, considering he packs tremendous power in both hands. Twelve of Miocic’s 16 victories have been by knockout, so his strategy won’t come as a surprise for Junior Dos Santos. He does have decent wrestling and grappling but it’s a known fact that his haymakers are his bread and butter.

Likewise, Dos Santos is an equally excellent striker. In fact, he’s been long considered to be the best boxer in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He averages 4.89 significant strikes landed per minute and does so with an accuracy of 48%. Dos Santos has 12 KOs in 18 victories with three of his last five wins by stoppage. Stylistically, this is hard to pick because these are the two top strikers at heavyweight. But given that Cigano is now 33, has gone 3-3 in his last six bouts and has suffered knockout losses in two of his last three losses, it’s fair to wonder if he’s in a good spot here. Not only has been Dos Santos hit and miss lately, he also hasn’t been too active with just one fight in each of the last three years.

Dos Santos is still one of the elite strikers in the business but he’s facing a raging bull in Miocic. It’s Stipe’s time now and while we may see another back and forth war, Miocic will likely end up getting his revenge against Dos Santos. We’re picking Stipe Miocic to successfully defend the UFC Heavyweight title for a second time this year.

UFC Fight Night 108: Artem Lobov vs. Cub Swanson Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , , , ,

Artem Lobov asked for Cub Swanson and he got the fight. Now Swanson wants to shut his mouth.

Teach Him Some Manners

Lobov began calling out Swanson after watching the UFC’s 4th ranked featherweight slug it out with Korean top prospect Doo Ho Choi at UFC 206 in one of 2016’s best and most exciting fights.  It didn’t take long for Swanson to notice the call out and the tough as nails fighter immediately agreed to face Lobov at the main event of UFC Fight Night 108 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee on April 22nd, 2017.

Fighting an unranked opponent doesn’t really makes sense for Cub Swanson and it is indeed a huge risk for him. But he said he’s got to teach Lobov some manners for calling him out on social media.

Better Fighter

Swanson averages 3.67 significant strikes per minutes as compared to Lobov’s 2.67. The American is also the more accurate striker at 46.9% versus 40.4%. On the ground, Swanson also has the better numbers at 1.3 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Lobov averages just 0.40 takedowns over the same period. Having seen the numbers, Cub Swanson is definitely the better fighter between these two.

The concern with Swanson, though, is that he has been submitted five times in his career. But Lobov may not have the ground game to submit him as the SBG Ireland product only has two of thirteen wins by submission.

The Odds

Top UFC betting sites like Bovada have Cub Swanson as the favorite here at -600 odds and Lobov the underdog at +400.

Consistency has been a problem for Lobov as he has been hit or miss in recent years. He is coming off a November victory over Teruto Ishihara and an August win over Chris Avila but in the longer term, he’s just split his last 14 bouts. There is nothing really special about Lobov’s game. He isn’t a knockout artist or a submission specialist. 7 of his 13 wins are by decision. He’s always just smart enough to find ways to win fights on points. And yes, he hasn’t fought top level competition yet so he is untested.

Swanson’s resume meanwhile is a who’s who of the division. He may have lost several fights to big named fighters but the experience difference between him and Lobov is too much. Likewise, Swanson has won 8 of his last 10 bouts and has been one of the more consistent fighters in the division. He may be 33 years old but we didn’t saw any signs of that during his back and forth Fight of The Year candidate against top prospect Doo Ho Choi at UFC 206 which he won by the way.

Not only  is Swanson more experienced and consistent, he also has the advantage in power, striking and conditioning. Given all his edges, we’re picking Cub Swanson to win convincingly over Artem Lobov.

UFC Fight Night 108: Al Iaquinta vs. Diego Sanchez Odds and Prediction

Sports News & Picks, , , , , , , , , ,

Al Iaquinta makes his long awaited octagon return against one of the UFC’s most grizzled veterans in Diego Sanchez at UFC Fight Night 108 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee on April 22nd.

Rage Stopped

Iaquinta was one of the UFC’s up and coming stars when he suddenly disappeared from the radar. Prior to that, the man known as ‘Raging’ won four straight bouts including three against highly touted foes in Ross Pearson, Joe Lauzon and Jorge Masvidal. But the rage stopped as injury and a contract dispute forced Iaquinta out of the octagon during the last two years.

Iaquinta’s MMA stock dropped with the layoff and he is now just #14 in the UFC’s crowded lightweight division. Needing to make up for lost time, Iaquinta prepares to fight for the first time in Tennessee and his opponent is will be one of the most recognizable faces in the promotion.

The Ultimate Fighter

While Raging Al was in the freezer, Diego Sanchez fought four times, going 2-2 during that period. In his most recent bout, Sanchez beat Marcin Held by unanimous decision at the TUF Latin America 3 finale last November.

Sanchez’s reputation has always preceded him. Since winning the inaugural season of the Ultimate Fighter, we’ve seen Sanchez in some of the most gruesome performances ever inside the UFC octagon. His toughness isn’t to be denied and his penchant to dive deep into wars is what makes him ever dangerous.

Experience vs Consistency

Diego has been hit and miss lately, though, splitting his last 14 outings. Although he’s coming off a victory over Marcin Held, he’s not won back to back fights since 2011. At 36, he is obviously past his prime and on the way down. But having a decorated veteran with plus money always makes an interesting bout to bet on and this one is no exception. Most UFC betting sites have Sanchez as a +285 underdog here, while the favored Iaquinta is at -350.

Sanchez has the experience advantage here and Iaquinta is coming off of a layoff. Diego’s takedowns are a threat and you can’t discount his submission skills. He’s going to take this deep in the trenches and hope that Iaquinta’s inexperience and ring rust will be exposed.

This is Iaquinta’s first bout in two years and that is another cause of concern. But ring rust aside, Iaquinta may be nearing his prime. He’s got pop in his strikes and has shown he can win an ugly grinder, too. Diego Sanchez is a tantalizing pick, really. But given Al Iaquinta’s consistency, we don’t think ring rust will matter here. We’re picking him to beat Sanchez here.