Stage 3 Overwatch League Betting Predictions April 25th-26th

Week 4 of Stage 3 of the Overwatch League is starting today and a total of 6 matches will be played on Wednesday and Thursday. The betting opportunities are excellent but before I start analyzing the matches, let’s have a look at the current standings table.

OWL Stage 3 standings table

• 1^st place: Boston Uprising (6 W – 0 L)
• 2^nd place: Los Angeles Valiant (5 W – 1 L)
• 3^rd place: New York Excelsior (5 W – 1 L)
• 4^th place: San Francisco Shock (4 W – 2 L)
• 5^th place: Los Angeles Gladiators (3 W – 3 L)
• 6^th place: Seoul Dynasty (3 W – 3 L)
• 7^th place: Philadelphia Fusion (3 W – 3 L)
• 8^th place: Houston Outlaws (3 W – 3 L)
• 9^th place: London Spitfire (2 W – 4 L)
• 10^th place: Dallas Fuel (1 W – 5 L)
• 11^th place: Florida Mayhem (1 W – 5 L)
• 12^th place: Shanghai Dragons (0 W – 6 L)

Betting predictions

Shanghai Dragons (0 W – 6 L) – Boston Uprising (6 W – 0 L)

Match date: April 25^th

Shanghai Dragons is every Overwatch bettor’s dream come true. This team is literally breaking every competitive record and probably not just for this esport, but for others as well. Shanghai Dragon’s massive losing streak (26) makes betting against it an almost 0 risk decision, and the rewards are extremely high given the 99.9 chance of success.

On the other side, Boston Uprising is looking more and more dominant with every passing week, defeating opponents regardless of their skill level, current form, and past results. Formidable teams like London Spitfire, New York Excelsior, Philadelphia Fusion, Seoul Dynasty and Houston Outlaws failed against Uprising in Stage 3, making this team look almost invincible. With one exception (Los Angeles Valiant), Boston Uprising has already beaten the league’s toughest opponents.

The head to head record clearly favors Boston Uprising in this match. Overall performance throughout the Overwatch League and recent form also point towards an easy victory in its favor.

Los Angeles Valiant (5 W – 1 L) – Houston Outlaws (3 W – 3 L)

Match date: April 25^th

Los Angeles Valiant crushed Seoul Dynasty, Shanghai Dragons and San Francisco Shock without dropping a single map, and then got two more victories against Dallas Fuel and Los Angeles Gladiators. The team started Stage 3 in full force, getting 5 consecutive wins but then losing a close match against London Spitfire.

After its 3^rd place finishes in Stage 1 and its mediocre 7^th place finish in Stage 2, Houston Outlaws began Stage 3 with mixed results. A close victory against London Spitfire was quickly followed by defeats against Boston Uprising, Philadelphia Fusion, and New York Excelsior. However, keep in mind that all of these losses came against some of the strongest teams in the league. Furthermore, the two of the losses weren’t disastrous and ended with the score of 2 – 3. In conclusion, we can say that in spite of its mediocre start, Houston Outlaws is actually a very good team. Last week, they got 2 more victories against 2 weak adversaries: Dallas Fuel and Florida Mayhem. This raised their Stage 3 record up to 3 wins and 3 losses.

Los Angeles Valiant and Houston Outlaws only met each other once. LA Valiant won that match without dropping a single map. In terms of overall performance throughout OWL, Valiant is also slightly better. And finally, current form statistics point towards a victory in its favor as well.

Dallas Fuel (1 W – 5 L) – Florida Mayhem (1 W – 5 L)

Match date: April 25^th
Dallas Fuel has been on the ropes for a very long time and the team is now in free fall. In Stage 2, Dallas Fuel finished second to last with a record of 2 wins and 8 losses. In Stage 3, it looks like history is repeating itself and I fully expect them to lose every single match from now on, simply because there isn’t anyone to beat at their current level of play. The only victory that Dallas Fuel got so far in Stage 3 was against Shanghai Dragons.

Florida Mayhem is another one of those struggling teams and finished Stage 1 and 2 with pretty bad results: 11^th place (1 W – 9 L) and 10^th place (3 W – 7 L) respectively. In Stage 3, the team has lost quite a few matches and its only victory came against Shanghai Dragons.

The overall performance throughout the Overwatch League doesn’t differentiate these two teams very well. Recent form has been terrible for both. The only thing that points towards a Florida Mayhem victory in this match is the head to head record, which is 1 – 0 in its favor.

Los Angeles Gladiators (3 W – 3 L) – London Spitfire (2 W – 4 L)

Match date: April 26^th

After its poor start in Stage 3 caused by the unexpected defeat against San Francisco Shock, Los Angeles Gladiators went on to beat Dallas Fuel, Shanghai Dragons, and Seoul Dynasty. However, the team then lost two more matches against tough opponents (Los Angeles Valiant and New York Excelsior) and its victories are not that valuable in the sense that they don’t point towards them being a powerful team. All of their 3 defeated rivals are either extremely weak (Dallas Fuel and Shanghai Dragons) or average at best (Seoul Dynasty).

London Spitfire is also doing poorly these days, being a shadow its former self from Stage 1 (back when Spitfire won the Playoffs). The team started Stage 3 with defeats against Houston Outlaws, New York Excelsior, Philadelphia Fusion and Boston Uprising. Its victories came against Florida Mayhem (irrelevant) and Los Angeles Valiant. This latest victory took place last week and the opponent was a top team. Combined with the good performance against Boston Uprising (score 2 – 3, also last week), we can easily conclude that London Spitfire is on an upward spiral and is actually very likely to win this match.

Overall performance throughout OWL favors London Spitfire. The head to head results between Gladiators and Spitfire favor Gladiators (1 – 0). Stage 3 results also point towards a Gladiators victory on the surface, but careful analysis suggests that the team’s wins aren’t particularly relevant. Taking everything into account, I believe that London Spitfire will emerge victorious in this match.

San Francisco Shock (4 W – 2 L) – New York Excelsior (5 W – 1 L)

Match date: April 26^th

New York Excelsior is without a doubt the strongest team in the league in terms of overall performance, having a combined record of 23 wins and just 3 losses. The team won Stage 2 and in Stage 3, it was defeated only by Boston Uprising in a very close match (score 2 – 3).

San Francisco Shock finished Stage 1 and Stage 2 in 9^th place (3 W – 7 L). In Stage 3, the team is already way above its previous level, but at least 2 of its victories are not particularly relevant, simply because the opponents were Shanghai Dragons and Dallas Fuel. The other 2 victories came against Los Angeles Gladiators and Philadelphia Fusion and were quite decisive (score 3 – 1). However, New York Excelsior is way above these two teams in terms of past results and raw skill, which is why I don’t give Shock too much of a chance in this match.

Regardless of what statistics you look at, New York Excelsior is clearly the stronger team and has at least a 90% chance of success in this encounter. San Francisco Shock only met the New York team once and lost without winning a single map.

Seoul Dynasty (3 W – 3 L) – Philadelphia Fusion (3 W – 3 L)

Match date: April 26^th

Seoul Dynasty has been unrecognizable in Stage 3, losing 3 matches against Los Angeles Valiant, Los Angeles Gladiators and Boston Uprising. And while the losses may be somewhat justified (at least the ones against Valiant and Uprising), the victories also reveal a huge decline in the team’s strength. Two maps lost against Dallas Fuel and one map lost against Shanghai Dragons, two teams that are so bad they don’t even count at this point.

Philadelphia Fusion lost against two giants (Boston Uprising and New York Excelsior) and an underdog (San Francisco Shock). The team also won against Florida Mayhem, London Spitfire, and Houston Outlaws. These last two victories, combined with the fact that Fusion lost close matches against the best teams in the league (score 2 – 3 against Uprising and Excelsior), clearly suggest that the team is actually very strong right now. And let’s not forget that Philadelphia Fusion finished Stage 2 in 2^nd place.

Theoretically, Seoul Dynasty has a few advantages going into this match, having had a better overall performance throughout the Overwatch League and also better head to head results against Fusion. However, the team’s recent form has been extremely poor, while Philadelphia Fusion’s has been excellent.