UFC 206: Donald Cerrone vs. Matt Brown Odds and Prediction

Barring any fight week shocker, Donald Cerrone’s finally going to fight.

First it was his original UFC 205 opponent Robbie Lawler who pulled out of their high profile bout. Then replacement opponent Kelvin Gastelum missed weight badly and was unceremoniously removed from UFC 205. The result? Cerrone was left without an opponent and a fight at the UFC’s historic Madison Square Garden debut.  The UFC then rescheduled Cerrone with a fight at the next event- UFC 206 in Canada. And Cowboy’s consolation prize? The Immortal Matt Brown.

Legit Welterweight

2016 has been a new beginning for Donald Cerrone. After failing to win the UFC Lightweight title from Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC on Fox 17th last December, Cerrone made the move to welterweight. While some quarters questioned his decision to go up to the 170 pound division, Cowboy has proved himself as a legitimate welterweight. Three straight stoppage wins over Alex Oliveira, Patrick Cote and Rick Story have put Cowboy to #5 in the welterweight rankings.

After seven straight wins in the UFC, Matt Brown has struggled fighting against the promotion’s top rated welterweights. Losses to Johny Hendricks, Robbie Lawler, Demian Maia and Jake Ellenberger have given the Immortal a 1-4 record in his last five bouts and has dropped him to #14 in the rankings. With his UFC career seemingly on the line, Matt Brown will have to bring out his A game to halt the streaking Cowboy.

No Longer Immortal

While Donald Cerrone is on his way up the welterweight ladder, Matt Brown has been there but no longer there. As we said earlier, he’s lost 4 of 5 and his UFC career may be dependent on what happens in this fight. In his most recent fight, Brown was knocked out by Jake Ellenberger in the first round. But more than another defeat, Brown fought so lackluster that we wonder what’s left in his tank. One thing is certain though, Brown is no longer immortal. The clock may be ticking on him and this could be the ‘passing of the torch’ kind of fight.

Cerrone is the bookmakers’ favorite to beat Brown. Cowboy is currently a -270 favorite over Brown who is at +205 . Despite being on a losing skid, Matt Brown is fairly a better striker than Cowboy, at least that’s what the stats say. While Cowboy lands more significant strikes per minute at 4.1 vs 3.62, Brown is the more accurate striker at 53% striking accuracy against Cerrone’s 48%. Defensively, Brown absorbs less strikes per minute at 2.46 versus 3.81 for Cowboy.

Outside the numbers though, Cerrone’s recent stoppage wins over Patrick Cote and Rick Story make us wonder if Brown’s statistical advantages will hold at UFC 206. Cerrone has looked invincible lately and he seems to be in a better place physically, mentally and stylistically than Matt Brown. In what looks to be an offensive showdown, Matt Brown cannot outgun Donald Cerrone as Cowboy simply has too many weapons to beat him. Look for Donald Cerrone to win by unanimous decision or a third round submission.