UFC 211 Betting: Eddie Alvarez vs. Dustin Poirier Odds and Prediction

Eddie Alvarez fights for the first time since losing his UFC lightweight title to Conor McGregor at UFC 205 last November. The Underground king will face former featherweight contender Dustin Poirier at UFC 211 on May 13th, 2017 at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas, USA.

Two Promotion Champ

Alvarez is the only fighter to win a world title in two different promotions. Prior to winning the UFC lightweight title against Rafael Dos Anjos in July of 2016, Alvarez was the staple lightweight in Bellator and was a two-time lightweight champion there. Since coming over to the UFC, Alvarez has fought one world class fighter after another: Cowboy Donald Cerrone, Gilbert Melendez, Anthony Pettis, Rafael Dos Anjos and Conor McGregor.

Chasing A Title

Dustin Poirier has been chasing a world title for a long time now. The Diamond is 5-1 since returning to lightweight and losing to McGregor. He just beat Jim Miller last February and is now making a quick return fight against a former champion. Poirier believes that he will be one fight away from that much coveted title shot if he beats Eddie Alvarez at UFC 211.

The Odds

Eddie Alvarez is the slight favorite here at -160 while Dustin Poirier is at +120. Both men are excellent strikers who possess knockout power. Both can also hold their own in grappling and wrestling so this fight could go anywhere.

Both men stand at 5-9 but Dustin Poirier has the longer reach at 72’ . He is also four years Alvarez’s junior and averages 1.54 more strikes per minute landed than the former champion. Poirier’s 49% striking accuracy is also 7% better than Eddie Alvarez’s number.

However, if we go down to the grappling statistics, Eddie Alvarez is more aggressive with his take downs. The Underground King averages 3.58 take downs per 15 minutes as compared to the Diamond’s 1.79. That’s almost a two take down differential and those two take downs would be a huge difference maker in a fight that is expected to be this close.

The Prediction

One can certainly make case for either fighter to win this fight but we’re going with Eddie Alvarez because of his aggressive take downs and because he has fought better competition. Sure, there is a possibility that Dustin Poirier is going to get the knockout here but unless Eddie Alvarez gets clipped and gets knocked out by Poirier, the former Lightweight king  has got this. We’re picking Eddie Alvarez  to win by early KO or unanimous decision.