UFC 216 Odds and Prediction: Fabricio Werdum vs. Derrick Lewis

Former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum squares off against the 7th ranked Derrick Lewis at UFC 216 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Nevada on October 7th, 2017.

Coming From Losses

Werdum is coming off of a majority decision loss to Alistair Overeem but remains one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC’s heavyweight division with his elite grappling and improved striking game.

Lewis is also coming off a loss. The Black Beast lost steam and got knocked out by Mark Hunt at UFC Fight Night 110 last June. He announced his retirement after the bout but has since changed course. Now, Lewis tries to avoid losing back to back fights for the first time in his career. It won’t be easy at all.

Dictating The Fight

Werdum is the favorite here at -250. Lewis, meanwhile, is the slight underdog at +195. This should go down to whoever can dictate the fight and make his opponent fight his style.

Werdum is perhaps the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history so it would be prudent for him to take this fight to the ground. Werdum’s striking has improved since his title run but we saw what happened when he stood in front of a heavy hitter like Stipe Miocic.  Derrick Lewis has the same kind of punching power, or even better.

Fourteen of the Black Beast’s 15 wins have come via knockout and only four of his total fights have gone the distance. So, either way, Derrick Lewis is going to come out swinging for the fences against Werdum. There is no doubt that if Lewis can connect, Werdum is definitely going to sleep.

Prediction

Werdum, meanwhile, will try to avoid the Miocic mistake. Because he is the best grappler and submission artist in heavyweight history, he will most certainly try to slow down Lewis by taking the fight to the ground where he is an expert. But Lewis may not be easy to put on the canvas.

The Black Beast is 260 pounds and has good takedown defense. Werdum also has to be wary about Lewis’ reach which is two inches longer than his. If Werdum can’t take this fight to the ground, he’s going to have to eat monster punches from the Black Beast.

This could go either way, really. But we’re picking Derrick Lewis to win this one by stoppage. I just don’t see Werdum taking him to the ground. Lewis’ is the longer man by two inches. He also has the heavier hands. Derrick Lewis by late knockout.