UFC on Fox 25: Chris Weidman vs. Kelvin Gastelum Odds and Prediction

Chris Weidman and Kelvin Gastelum meet at the main event of UFC on Fox 25 on July 22nd, 2017 at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Uniondale, New York.

Picking Up The Pieces

After beating Anderson Silva in back to back fights, Chris Weidman’s fortunes have turned upside down. The All-American lost his middleweight title to Luke Rockhold and then he suffered two more losses to Yoel Romero and Gegard Mousasi. What made it worse for Weidman was the fact that two of those three losses came in his home state of New York. With perhaps his last chance to prove he is still an elite fighter, Weidman returns to New York to hopefully end the jinx.

No Slouch

His opponent is no slouch. Kelvin Gastelum may be physically small for the middleweight division but he fights with the biggest of hearts. Gastelum is coming off a first round KO of Vitor Belfort but that win was overturned after he tested positive for a banned substance. Prior to that bout, Gastelum collected back to back wins over Tim Kennedy and Johny Hendricks. This is only his third fight since returning to middleweight and without a doubt his biggest test so far.

No Longer The Same Fighter

Chris Weidman opened as a -150 favorite against Kelvin Gastelum’s +120. Since then, the lines have moved and Gastelum is the current odds on favorite at -140 while Weidman is now the underdog at +125. This one could go either way, really.  Both men are hungry for a victory and need one to solidify their spot in a loaded middleweight division.

The concern here for Chris Weidman is that he’s lost his last three fights by knockout and his opponent is known as a heavy puncher and a knockout artist. However, Weidman’s seven inch reach advantage and the fact that he’s a much bigger guy than Gastelum makes him a tempting pick. But if you look at recent history, Weidman’s been on the losing end three fights in a row and has now been on the losing side in every bout since May of 2015. He’s no longer the fighter he once was and could be on his way out.

Younger and Hungrier

Gastelum meanwhile is a younger and hungrier lion who’s never been in a title fight. He moved up from welterweight after being plagued with weight problems. He seems undersized for the middleweight division but he makes up for it with his toughness, tenacity and punching power. Weidman doesn’t just have the size advantage, he will also have homecourt edge. Despite those, we’re picking Kelvin Gastelum to win this one. It could be a close five round decision or Gastelum wins it early by KO. Either way, we don’t think Weidman still has it in him.