UFC on Fox 28: Jeremy Stephens vs. Josh Emmett Odds and Prediction

Jeremy Stephens faces Josh Emmett in the main event of UFC on Fox 28 on February 24th, 2018 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida.

The event was supposed to be headlined by Yoel Romero and David Branch but the former was promoted to the UFC 221 main event after the injury to UFC middleweight champion Robert Whitaker.

When this fight was booked, Stephens was just days removed from a second round knockout of Doo Ho Choi at UFC St. Louis. He took the fight, not just to stay busy but keep himself alive in the title hunt. Emmett is coming off the biggest win of his career, a first round knockout win over Ricardo Lamas at UFC on Fox 26.

Stephens is 26-14 overall and has won just half of his last ten fights. On the other hand, Josh Emmett is 13-1 and owns five victories in his last six bouts. His only loss has been a close split decision loss to Desmond Green at UFC 210.

The Odds

Stephens is the slight -160 favorite at Bovada, while Emmett is listed as the mild underdog at +130.

This one could go either way really. Stephens is the slightly bigger fighter here so the size advantage is with him. Li’l Heathen also possesses more punching power, as he can end things with just one punch and in one blink of an eye.

But Josh Emmett is the better all around fighter here. He can a deep wrestling background, is an excellent grappler and can defend intelligently on his feet. He is fundamentally sound and has the better fight IQ than Stephens. Whatever his opponent brings to the fight, he can make adjustments and win.

Good Defensive Instincts

Stephens main problem here is that his opponent has good defensive instincts which enables him to avoid any serious trouble on his feet. Emmett is going to wrestle, grapple and wear down Stephens, take away his ability to finish the fight and force him to win another way.

Josh Emmett is going to limit Jeremy Stephens’ punching power and is going to take this fight to the ground where Li’l Heathen is not comfortable. If he fights smart, he’s not going to get hit with the big bombs and he’s going to pull off the upset. We’re picking Josh Emmett to win this fight by unanimous decision.