UFC on Fox 29 Odds and Prediction: Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown

Former interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit faces fellow veteran Matt Brown in a welterweight scrap that will serve as the co-main event for UFC on Fox 29 on April 14th, 2018 at the GIla River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.

Not Yet Done

Condit’s reputation as one of the best in this generation is already set in stone. But the former interim UFC welterweight champion isn’t done yet with his MMA career.

Condit hopes to break out of a three-fight losing streak, the longest such streak of his decorated career. Most recently, Condit lost via unanimous decision to Neil Magny at UFC 219. Prior to that, the Natural Born Killer was submitted by Demian Maia at UFC on Fox 21 and also dropped a five-round thriller against then UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler at UFC 195.

Brown was almost surely headed for retirement after a lackluster 2016 which saw him lose thrice, all via stoppage.

After suffering a third round submission loss to Demian Maia at UFC 198, Brown was knocked out by Jake Ellenberger at UFC 201 and by Donald Cerrone at UFC 206. But after announcing that his November bout against Diego Sanchez would be his swansong bout, Brown came out victorious in a Performance of the Night outing and has since put his retirement plans on hold.

A Tough Pick

This potential Fight of the Year candidate is an even fight. Both fighters are currently at -110 and given their recent struggles, it’s hard to pick who’s in better shape at this stage of their careers.

Condit is a very dangerous fighter, with one punch knockout power and 11 submissions to his credit. Twenty eight of his 30 wins have come via stoppage so, don’t expect him to try and win this fight on points.

The Natural Born Killer is an excellent striker, owing to his kickboxing background. Despite losing his last four decisions, he has the stamina to be effective in the latter rounds. Giving up on Condit right now isn’t really a good idea although it’s clear that he’s no longer the fighter that beat Nick Diaz to become interim welterweight champion.

Volume of Strikes

Like Condit, Brown has been on a rough patch as of late. But he has been able to come out of it last November with an emphatic win over Diego Sanchez. Like Condit, Brown is also a violent striker who has good accuracy.

Six of his last seven wins have been by knockout so it’s not unusual to expect for one here. Brown’s takedown defense has improved in recent years. In fact, he’s never been taken down since 2013. Having said that, this bout is likely to be decided on the feet.

This one’s a hard pick really but given their most recent performances, it does appear that Matt Brown has more fight left in him than Condit. Brown can trade blows with Condit and his takedown defense should also hold against the Natural Born Killer. This one should go down to volume of strikes and because of that, we’re going with Matt Brown. We’re picking Matt Brown to beat Carlos Condit.