UFC on Fox 29 Odds and Prediction: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje meet at the main event of UFC on Fox 29 on April 14th, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.

Poirier is coming off an impressive third round victory over former WEC and UFC lightweight champion Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis at UFC Fight Night 120. Moving two fight backward, Poirier beat Jim Miller via majority decision at UFC 208 and his fight with Eddie Alvarez at UFC 211 ended in a no-contest after Alvarez landed illegal knees.

Ranked 5th in the UFC lightweight division, Poirier hopes to move one fight closer to a first ever title shot with a win over Justin Gaethje.

More Polished

Gaethje took the UFC by storm with a violent and scintillating win over Michael Johnson at the TUF 25 Finale. But the Highlight was taken down to earth after being stopped in the third round of his slugfest with Eddie Alvarez at UFC 218.

Despite his 1-1 UFC record, the former WSOF lightweight champion is one of the most exciting fighters owing to his devil may care attitude. Both of Gaethje’s bouts have been named as Fight of the Night winners.

This one’s a pick ‘em fight with the more polished Poirier the slight favorite at -140 and the offensive minded Gaethje the underdog at +120. The Diamond is the more complete fighter here with the more variety of strikes and better accuracy.

He also has a good ground and pound game should this fight go to the canvass. Since losing to Conor McGregor in 2014, Poirier has lost just once and he will without doubt be coming with a lot of confidence to Glendale.

No Defense

Gaethje is without question the most violent man in the promotion. The Highlight throws a lot of punches and tries to overwhelm his opponents with volume and power. He also has wrestling background dating back to his high school days.

Given his power and striking ability, it’s tempting to consider picking Gaethje and the plus money over Poirier. But based on his two UFC bouts, his defense hasn’t been that good, if it exists at all. Gaethje simply wants to fight toe to toe and hope he drops his opponent first. That won’t work against a skilled fighter like Dustin Poirier.

If Poirier doesn’t get caught in a phone booth affair, this is going to be an easy fight for him. He can fight Gaethje at a distance all day or he can take him to the ground and make him uncomfortable. Either way, it’s hard not to choose Poirier. He’s so much better overall.

We’re picking Dustin Poirier to beat Justin Gaethje.