MLB's Home Run Leader 2018 - 10 Picks to Lead The Majors in Home Runs

Home runs were aplenty in Major League Baseball last season as a record 6,105 home runs were hit all over the majors during the 2017 season.

117 players drilled at least 20 home runs each, including 41 who connected on 30 or more long balls. Giancarlo Stanton led MLB with 59 homers on his way to winning the NL MVP award. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge led the AL with 52 home runs, setting an AL rookie record for most home runs. Out in the NL, Cody Bellinger also set a rookie mark with his 39 long balls.

With the 2018 season already underway, let’s take a look at the betting odds (according to Bovada as of March 28, 2018) top 10 picks to lead the majors in home runs this season.

Giancarlo Stanton +375

Giancarlo Stanton led the major league with 59 home runs last season, and his move to Yankee Stadium from Marlins Park should give him more opportunities to hit the long balls, owing to shorter left and right field walls. Likewise, the AL East has some of the top 10 hitter-friendly ballparks, which is the stark opposite of the NL East (where Stanton used to reside), which has four of the bottom five hitter-friendly ballparks.

Aaron Judge +600

The next-best odds belong to Giancarlo Stanton’s Yankees teammate Aaron Judge. The breakout star of 2017 had 52 home runs to lead the American League. But critics will argue that he is going to have a “sophomore slump” and how opposing teams now have one season of tape to scout and analyze him. But don’t let that make you devalue him, because remember that in last September, opponents already had five months of Aaron Judge tape, but he still made 15 home runs, his best of the 2017 season.

Joey Gallo +1500

He might be the best pick for your bet on this list. The Texas Rangers’ Joey Gallo had 41 home runs in 2017, and while that was fewer than Stanton’s and Judge’s, Gallo had the faster speed off the bat at 107.61 mph compared to the two. Gallo also ranked next to Stanton with 17 No Doubters (no-doubt home runs), so that speaks a lot about his ability to drive home the long balls. His 196 strikeouts may look like a red flag, but given that he is only 24 years old, expect his discipline on the plate to improve with time.

Bryce Harper +1500

With the thought of being the next half-billion-dollar man in baseball, Bryce Harper is going to get plenty of attention, 2018 being a contract year for him. Harper led the National League in home runs with 42 during his MVP year in 2015, but he’s not made 30 home runs in any season other than 2015, so you’ve got to be worried a bit.

J.D. Martinez +1500

He joined Bryce Harper, Jay Bruce, and Kris Bryant with 29 homers last season, 19th-most in the National League. But 29 was just his total with the Arizona Diamondbacks. If we count his 57 games with the Detroit Tigers, Martinez’s season total would be 45, putting him behind Stanton (59) and Judge (52).

Nolan Arenado +1800

Nolan Arenado is one of the most prolific long-ball hitters in MLB in the past three seasons, with his three-year total topping the National League. In 2015, he tied with Bryce Harper for most home runs in the NL with 42. A year later, his 41 homers were tied with Chris Carter for tops in the NL, and last year, his 37 total was tied for third.

Cody Bellinger +2000

Cody Bellinger set the Dodgers’ record for most home runs by a rookie last year with 39 (2nd-best in the NL), breaking the team standard of 35 set by Mike Piazza in 1993. Bellinger also had six multi-home-run games last season, and the only rookie to have more multi-homer games was Mark McGwire in 1987.

Mike Trout +2500

Mike Trout is probably the most decorated man on this list. The back-to-back All-Star MVP in 2014 and 2015 is also a five-time Silver Slugger awardee and a one-time winner of the Hank Aaron award. The American League MVP in 2014 and 2016, Trout’s 33 home runs last season ranked 22nd in the American League. His career best was 41 in 2015 when he finished 5th in the AL.

Khris Davis +2500

Often overlooked, this Oakland A’s outfielder is worth the gamble at these odds because he’s hit a combined 85 home runs during the past two seasons, and that’s no joke. Davis finished second to Stanton last season and was tied for third in 2016 in the American League’s home run leaders.

Manny Machado +2800

Baltimore Orioles’ third baseman Manny Machado has hit at least 30 home runs in each of the last three seasons. Machado’s 470 blast off CC Sabathia last season is the longest home run at Yankee Stadium in the Statcast era (since 2015).

So those are your top 10. Looking farther down the list, here are the remaining picks for one of baseball’s most prestigious honors:

Kris Bryant +3000
Josh Donaldson +3000
Paul Goldschmidt +3000
Rhys Hoskins +3300
Nelson Cruz +3500
Edwin Encarnacion +3500
Matt Olson +3500
Freddie Freeman +4000
Miguel Sano +4000
Chris Davis +4000
Anthony Rizzo +5000
George Springer +5000
Mark Trumbo +5000
Kyle Schwarber +5000
Carlos Correa +6000
Joey Votto +6000
Gary Sanchez +7000
Adam Duvall +8000
Yoenis Cespedes +8000
Marcell Ozuna +9000
Logan Morrison +9000
Charlie Blackmon +10000
Mike Moustakas +10000
Francisco Lindor +10000
Justin Smoak +10000
Rafael Devers +10000
Brian Dozier +10000
Jose Abreu +10000
Miguel Cabrera +10000

Who Will It Be?

The Yankees led the majors with 241 home runs last season. During the offseason, they only added NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, whose 59 home runs led the Major League. The Yankees are likely targeting the 1997 Seattle Mariners’ record of 264 home runs during their 90-win season. With Stanton and Judge, that is not far-fetched.

It’s fair to expect Stanton and Judge to make at least 40 home runs each this season. But for them to replicate their season totals from last season would be asking too much. Since Jose Bautista in 2010 and 2011, no one has repeated as the home run leader in back-to-back seasons. So much for Stanton. As for Judge? That was a magical rookie season last year, but because it was magical, he’s due for a little regression.

Our Pick

Moving to Fenway Park is going to be advantageous to J.D. Martinez’s power. Martinez homered 45 times last season in just 489 at-bats. That’s impressive. And with the change of scenery, he’s probably going to hit at least 50 this season. So yeah, we’re picking J.D. Martinez to lead the MLB in home runs this season.

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