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The 2018 Melbourne Cup happens on November 6, 2018 and starts at 3pm of Tuesday. Called the “Race that stops a nation”, this year’s edition is more exciting that it ever has been with festivities taking place in and out of the racetrack. No doubt, the $7.3M Lexus Melbourne Cup is the main event of the Melbourne Cup Carnival, there are other races and social events that will keep everyone busy.
In total, there are 10 races slated for the day and they vary in distance and prizes. The 3200m Lexus Melbourne Cup is the most prominent of all the races as it is the most prestigious race in the Australian horse racing calendar.
What Time Does It Start?
As stated above, the 2018 Melbourne Cup commences at 3pm on November 6, 2018 at the Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
How Many Horses Are In the Lexus Melbourne Cup?
The field for the Melbourne Cup is composed of 24 horses. Every year, hundreds of horses are nominated to the race but based on a ballot system and handicapping, the field is narrowed down to 24 on the Saturday evening prior to the race and after the conclusion of the Victoria Derby Day. Following the release of the final field, the Melbourne Cup barrier draw is then released live from Flemington Racecourse.
Does The Barrier Matter?
The barrier is an interesting factor that can affect betting. That’s because some barriers have historically delivered good and bad performances from the horses. For instance, Barrier 11 has produced seven winners over the years while Barriers 5,10 and 14 have each produced six winners. Most recently, Barrier 5 has produced two winners with Green Moon (2012) and Fiorente (2013). On the other hand, Barrier 18 has not produced a single winner ever so you might want to stay away from whoever gets that spot.
2018 MELBOURNE CUP Odds from Bovada as of 11/1/18:
- Yucatan +400
- Cross Counter +800
- Magic Circle +800
- Avilius +1200
- Best Solution +1200
- Muntahaa +1200
- The Cliffsofmoher +1200
- Marmelo +1800
- Rostropovich +1800
- Youngstar +1800
- Finche +2000
- Chestnut Coat +2500
- Sound Check +2500
- A Prince of Arran +3300
- Red Verdon +3300
- Ventura Storm +3300
- Jaamheh +4000
- Tosen Basil +4000
- Ace High +5000
- Nakeeta +5000
- Red Cardinal +5000
- Runaway +5000
- Thinkin’ Big +5000
- Wall of Fire +5000
- Yogi +5000
Yucatan emerged as betting favorite after a dominating win at the Herbert Power Stakes in his Australian debut. James McDonald throttled the horse down by the time they crossed the line otherwise the margin of victory would have probably been 10 lengths if McDonald rode him out.
Based on recent form, Yucatan is a solid favorite worth backing.
Michael Moroney’s stable imported Sound Check from Germany for the purpose of winning the Melbourne Cup, a feat he achieved in 2000 with Brew. He finished a whisker behind Best Solution at the Group One Grosser Preis von Berlin (2400 m) but then faltered in his Australian debut with a disappointing finish at the Caulfield Cup. Despite that, he seems better suited for a more firm track and a race of over two miles so the Flemington straight should fit like a shoe.
If there’s a best value bet here, it’s Sound Check for me.
How Has The Betting Favorite Fared?
Only one horse in the last decade has won the Melbourne Cup as the odds on favorite. This was Fiorente five years ago in 2013. The other highest finishes for a top favorite heading to the Melbourne Cup were third place by Hartnell in 2015 and So You Think in 2010.
Entering 2018, only 34 out of 157 odds on favorite have gone on to win the Melbourne Cup. Here’s how the last 10 betting favorites finished the race:
| Horse | Year | Finish |
| Marmelo | 2017 | 9th |
| Hartnell | 2016 | 3rd |
| Fame Game | 2015 | 13th |
| Admire Ratki | 2014 | Retired |
| Fiorente | 2013 | First |
| Dunaden | 2012 | 14th |
| Americain | 2011 | 5th |
| So You Think | 2010 | Third |
| Alcopop | 2009 | 6th |
| Mad Rush | 2008 | 7th |
Now you can look at this two ways. One is that the favorite this year has little chance of winning or you can say that since it’s been a while that a favorite has won, it may be due time to have the next one win it all. What do you think?
Prediction
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Yucatan is the early favorite and he is a worthy one. Sure, the history of favorites may be against him but if there’s a horse good enough to halt that streak, it’s Yucatan. Sound Check could give the windfall as the best value bet. But the final field of 24 isn’t known until Saturday and there are other factors that you might want to consider like who gets the winningest barriers. Keep updated for the latest on the 2018 Melbourne Cup at Bovada
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