San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals 11/21/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

The San Francisco 49ers face the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night in Mexico City. This marks the second time these two squads have faced off in that part of the globe. The 49ers and Cardinals played in the first-ever NFL regular season game played outside the United States also in Mexico City in 2005.

San Francisco is 5-4 SU on the season and 3-2 SU over their last five games while winning their last two games played. They defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 22-16 last weekend in primetime. The 49ers will move into a tie with the idle Seattle Seahawks for the lead in the NFC West Division.

Meanwhile, Arizona is 4-6 SU this season and only 2-3 SU in their last five games played. The Cardinals defeated the defending Super Bowl champions Los Angeles Rams last week to move closer to getting back in the playoff hunt. Before Sunday’s games, the Cardinals were third in the division behind the 6-4 SU Seahawks and the 5-4 SU 49ers with the Rams at the bottom with at 3-7 SU.

Arizona defeated San Francisco 31-17 in their most recent head-to-head meeting last November 7, 2021.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers head to this game after back-to-back victories over the two Los Angeles teams. A win on Monday night will give San Francisco a share of the lead in the NFC West Division with the idle Seattle Seahawks.

San Francisco boasts of a prolific offensive lineup with elite playmakers. Brandon Aiyuk has 567 receiving yards with 4 touchdowns while Deebo Samuel has 567 all-purpose yards and 3 touchdowns. George Kittle is also there and he has produced 340 receiving yards and 2 TDs. Christian McCaffrey has 288 all-purpose yards and 3 TDs since getting traded to San Francisco while Elijah Mitchell rushed for 89 yards on 19 carries in his return from an MCL sprain.

The San Francisco defense ranks first in total yards allowed and second overall in total rushing yards allowed. They are also 9th in passing yards given up and are 4th in the NFL in scoring defense. The defense has also recorded 29 sacks with Nick Bosa leading the team with 9 tacks and 11 tackles for loss. The 49ers’ 26 takeaways are also the 8th most in the league this season.

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is having a quarterback issue right now with both starter Kyler Murray and back-up Colt McCoy, not 100% heading to Monday’s games. Both were limited participants in the Cardinals’ latest practices as Murray missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury and although he could play on Monday, he may not be at full strength. McCoy started for Murray last week but he too left the game with a knee injury. If somehow, both are a no-go, it will be third-string QB Trace McSorley who is next in line.

McCoy made a good account of himself last week, throwing for 236 yards, including a touchdown pass to AJ Green. He also hit DeAndre Hopkins 10 times for 98 yards and Rondale Moore 9 times for 94 yards. Running back James Conner also rushed for 69 yards with two touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, tight end Zach Ertz who has 47 catches for 406 yards with 4 TDs this season, suffered a knee injury and is expected to miss the rest of the season.

The Arizona defense has been terrible this season, ranking 30th in scoring defense at 25.8 points per game allowed. They are also 23rd in total yards allowed at 357.6 per game. The Cardinals’ 19 sacks this season is the 8th fewest among NFL teams. They are also 28th in a red zone defense with opponents scoring a touchdown against them in 67.5% of their red zone trips. Budda Baker leads the team with 75 tackles but is questionable to play on Monday along with Byron Murphy Jr.

49ers vs Cardinals SU Prediction

The 49ers are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games played against the Cardinals. The 49ers are also 2-3 SU in their last 5 games played in Arizona.

San Francisco 49ers SU trends:

• The 49ers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The 49ers are 2-3 SU in their 5 road games played this season.
• The 49ers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played against the NFC West.
• The 49ers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 November games.

Arizona Cardinals SU trends:

• The Cardinals are 5-11 SU in their last 16 games played.
• The Cardinals are 1-9 SU in their last 9 home games.
• The Cardinals are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the NFC.
• The Cardinals are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games played against the NFC West Division.

The 49ers displayed a glimpse of what they can do on offense last Sunday when they defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 22-16. Although they were not able to cover the spread as 8-point home underdogs, the 49ers had a chance late in the game but opted to go for the field goal instead of the Chargers’ one-yard line.

San Francisco got back Deebo Samuel who has 2 catches for 24 yards and four carries for 27 yards. Running back Elijah Mitchell had 18 carries and 89 rushing yards in his return while carrying the rock more than Christian McCaffrey. With all the weapons they have, Jimmy G. will have plenty of options on Monday night. The 49ers however are still trying to figure out how to distribute the ball.

The Cardinals got a much-needed win last week and they did so without starting QB Kyler Murray. Arizona is however hoping that Murray will be back on Monday with the extra time off to heal his hamstring injury. The Cardinals will also be without tight end Zach Ertz who suffered a potentially season-ending knee injury. Ertz has 47 catches and 406 receiving yards with 4 TD grabs so he will be missed.

Without Ertz, there will be more pressure on WR DeAndre Hopkins after his 98 yards and 10 catches performance in their last game. Rondale Moore also had a big game with 9 catches on 13 targets for 94 yards. Hopkins and Moore will need to play big again on Monday without Ertz.

Hopkins and Moore are a dangerous pair and are better than the last duo that the 49ers beat last week. However, Murray’s health will be the key to this game. If Murray can keep the San Francisco defense honest, then the Cardinals have a chance to cover the betting spread and even win outright.

The 49ers allowed the Chargers to take an early lead. They were fortunate to be able to come back and win the game. For the 49ers, the key here will be their defense forcing turnovers and holding the Cardinals in check. I think that defense will get the job done here.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers

49ers vs Cardinals ATS Prediction

The 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played against the Cardinals. However, the road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings between San Francisco and Arizona. The underdog is also 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 games played between these two teams.

The 49ers are:

• The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus the NFC West.
• The 49ers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The 49ers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC.
• The 49ers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 Monday games.
• The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss.
• The 49ers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 11.
• The 49ers are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

The Cardinals are:

• The Cardinals are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Cardinals are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.
• The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The Cardinals are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 11.
• The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 versus the NFC West.

The 49ers have the edge in most statistical departments. They are also healthy at quarterback so which enables them to utilize their weapons better. The 49ers got back their key offensive players the last time out and this is going to make San Francisco even more dangerous.

Arizona also has exceptional weapons but the problem is that Kyler Murray isn’t sure about playing here. Colt McCoy played well the last time out but he too could be hurt after he tweaked his knee in that game.

I think Murray plays on Monday but I’m not sure that he will be 100%. That’s not going to work against the 49ers who have gotten healthy. This spread is quite high but I expect the 49ers to be able to cover its key offensive players back.

Prediction: 49ers -8

49ers vs Cardinals Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played between these two teams. The under is 5-1 in the last six games played in Arizona.

San Francisco 49ers over/under trends:

• The under is 13-4 in the 49ers’ last 17 games overall.
• The under is 6-2 in the 49ers’ last 8 games played on the road.
• The under is 4-0 in the 49ers’ last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 7-1 in the 49ers’ last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 6-1 in the 49ers’ last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 10-2 in the 49ers’ last 12 games on grass.
• The under is 7-2 in the 49ers’ last 9 versus the NFC.

Arizona Cardinals over/under trends:

• The over is 4-0 in the Cardinals’ last 4 games overall.
• The over is 4-0 in the Cardinals’ last 4 vs. NFC.
• The over is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games in November.
• The over is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last 7 games in Week 11.
• The under is 9-1 in the Cardinals’ last 10 Monday games.

While I think that Murray is going to play on Monday, there’s a difference between playing and competing at full health. Whether it’s Murray or McCoy, I’m not sure if the Cardinals will have a 100% healthy starter at quarterback. Whoever starts behind center for Arizona, the 49ers’ defense should be able to pressure the hobbled passer. That will lead to poor decision-making and likely turnovers.

On the other hand, the 49ers have a Top 10 offense but they are scoring only 22.0 points per game which is 18th overall in the league. San Francisco is scoring touchdowns in 54.8% of their red zone trip which is just 17th in the league.

Knowing all these, I don’t expect to see a high-scoring game on Monday night.

Prediction: Under 43.5

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