Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers 7/3/19 MLB Odds, Preview and Prediction

The Arizona Diamondbacks play the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second of a two-game set at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday, July 3rd.

The Diamondbacks have climbed back to the .500 mark after 86 games but it looks like they will have to enter the playoffs via the backdoor. Arizona trails Philadelphia and Colorado for the final playoff spot in the National League but they are one of seven teams that are separated by just 2.5 games for the last wild card slot.

Merrill Kelly gets the nod to open against the Dodgers on Wednesday. The 30-year old Kelly is 7-8 on the season with an ERA of 4.00 in 17 starts for the D-Backs. Kelly has shown improvement as of late and is adjusting well to the MLB after four seasons in Korea. In his last start, Kelly gave up three runs on seven hits in five innings as Arizona lost to the San Francisco Giants 3-6. The Diamondbacks have lost two out of Kelly’s last four starts.

The Dodgers are way ahead of their closest pursuers in the National League West. Los Angeles is 12 games better than the Colorado Rockies in the current standings and by the way, it looks, they will be cruising their way to the postseason if they can keep up with their current pace.

For Los Angeles, All-Star Walker Buehler will open on top of the mound against the D-Backs. The 24-year old former Vanderbilt standout has a record of 8-1 with an ERA of 3.43 in 16 starts this season. Buehler has emerged as one of the Dodgers’ most feared pitchers with his 104 strikeouts and just 14 walks in 97 innings of work. In his last outing though, Buehler got in trouble at the high altitude of Coors Field and gave up 7 runs on 13 hits, but escaped with a no-decision.

Who Wins?

Arizona is 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. The Diamondbacks are 2-2 SU in their last four games played on the road. Los Angeles is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Dodgers are 3-0 SU in their last three games played at home. Head to head, the Dodgers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 meetings against the Diamondbacks. Los Angeles is also 4-2 SU in their last four home games against Arizona and are the baseball betting favorites to win this game.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the most wins by any team so far this season and they have the best home record in the Majors. Meanwhile, Arizona has struggled in this series with 15 wins in their last 52 meetings in Dodger Stadium. Buehler and Kelly have pitched well as of late but the former is pitching better right now. He has a 2.87 FIP despite stranding just 66.7% of his base-runners this season. Kelly has a 3.04 ERA at home but has a 4.99 road ERA.

Arizona is 6-14 SU in their last 20 games against the National League West, 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against a right-hander and 3-13 SU in their last 16 Game 2s of a series. On the other hand, Los Angeles is 20-6 in their last 26 home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 42-12 in their last 54 games at home and 49-21 in their last 70 games overall.

Los Angeles has won six out of Buehler’s last seven starts, the Dodgers have owned the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium and Kelly has a tendency to struggle with his pitch on the road. I like the best home team in the majors to pick up another win here. Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Other Bets To Make

The Diamondbacks are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played and Arizona is also 1-3 ATS in their last four games played on the road. The Dodgers are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. Los Angeles is 2-1 ATS in their last three games played at home.

Arizona has outscored Los Angeles by an average of 2.67 runs per game in their last three meetings but the Dodgers have outscored the Diamondbacks by an average of 2.2 runs per game in their last 10 meetings. The Dodgers’ last two wins have come by at four runs while the Diamondbacks are coming off a six-run loss to the Giants last June 30. Prediction: Dodgers -1.5

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The over is 5-3-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 10 games played. The total has gone over in 27 out of the 47 road games played by Arizona. The over is also 5-3-2 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games played. The total has gone over in 21 out of the 43 home games played by Los Angeles. Head to head, the over is 5-4-1 in their last 10 meetings and the over is also 4-0 in their last four meetings in Los Angeles.

The trends point to the over in this matchup but when you take a look a Buehler, he’s pitched very well as of late, save for that failed effort at Coors Field. Kelly has been respectable all-season long but has shown terrific command in his last six starts with 34 strikeouts and just 5 walks while going 4-2 during that period. I think that streak of “overs” in Los Angeles ends on Wednesday with a low-scoring game at Dodger Stadium. Prediction: Under 8

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