Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners 07/22/2022 Odds and Prediction

The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners begin a three-game set on Friday night at T-Mobile Park.

Houston is 61-32 on the season and they have the best record in the AL West Division. The Astros are 2.5 games behind the New York Yankees for the best record in the American League and are behind the Yankees and L.A. Dodgers in the race for the best record in baseball. Houston is 6-4 in their last 10 games played and heads to this series after beating the Yankees in a double-header to start the second half of the season last Thursday.

Seattle is 51-42 on the season and in second place in the AL West Division, 10 games behind the Astros. The Mariners head to this matchup having won 14 straight games and are the hottest team in the majors right now.

Houston Astros

The Astros have been very good on the road and are 13 games above the .500 mark when playing away from home. Houston is 7-3 in their last 10 games on the road and will begin a seven-game road trip one day after beating the Yankees in a double-header to start the second half of the season.

Kyle Tucker is having a great season with 18 home runs and 62 RBIs with an OPS of .819. Tucker has logged in 11 RBIs this month but has struggled against Seattle with a batting average of .265 and only 3 RBIs this season. The Astros rank 14th in scoring at 4.43 runs per game this season and they are second in the majors with an ERA of 2.98.

Jose Urquidy will start for the Astros on Friday. The 27-year-old right-hander is 8-4 with an ERA of 4.09 and a WHIP of 1.92 in a total of 17 starts this season. The Sinaloa, Mexico native has allowed 43 earned runs in 94.2 innings pitched with 74 strikeouts and 20 walks. He allowed 3 earned runs on six hits in 6.1 innings in his last start where he picked up the loss during a 5-1 defeat to the A’s. Houston is 4-2 in his last six starts.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners were once 10-games below the .500 mark earlier this season but Seattle is currently the hottest team in baseball with 14 consecutive wins. At double-digits down in the division standings, it’s not likely that they will catch up with the Astros in the division race. However, if they keep up this hot streak, they should be in good shape in the AL wild card race.

Ty France has hit well against the Astros this season with three home runs, 10 RBIs, and an OPS of 1.006. The 28-year-old has 49 RBIs and an OPS of .845. Meanwhile, the Mariners rank 23rd in scoring at 4.15 runs per game while their pitching staff is ranked 5th in the majors with a team ERA of 3.5.

Marco Gonzales will start for Seattle in Game 1. The 30-year-old left-hander is 5-9 with an ERA of 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.37 in 18 starts this season. Gonzales has conceded 39 earned runs on 103 hits in a total of 100.1 innings pitched this season. In his last start, Gonzales allowed 5 earned runs on 11 hits in 6.0 innings pitched but did not factor in the decision. The Mariners are 3-2 in Gonzales’ last five starts.

Astros vs Mariners Prediction

The Astros are 42-18 in their last 60 games played against the Mariners. However, Houston is 2-6 in their last eight meetings in Seattle.

The Astros are:

• 49-21 in their last 70 games played overall.

• 6-2 in their last 8 road games.

• 21-8 in their last 29 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• 10-4 in their last 14 vs. American League West.

• 52-21 in their last 73 games on grass.

• 48-20 in their last 68 Game 1s of a series.

• 12-5 in their last 17 road games versus a left-handed starter.

• 20-9 in their last 29 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• 35-16 in their last 51 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

• 86-41 in their last 127 Friday games.

• 13-3 in their last 16 against a team with a winning record.

• 13-3 in their last 16 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• 4-1 in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter.

• 4-1 in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning record.

• 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• 16-5 in their last 21 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

The Mariners are:

• 22-4 in their last 26 overall.

• 6-0 in their last 6 home games.

• 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.

• 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a right-handed starter.

• 5-0 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• 12-2 in their last 14 versus the American League West.

• 22-4 in their last 26 games on grass.

• 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• 4-1 in their last 5 Friday games.

• 20-6 in their last 26 games versus a right-handed starter.

• 22-7 in their last 29 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• 19-7 in their last 26 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• 23-9 in their last 32 games following an off day.

• 5-2 in their last 7 games opposite a team with a winning % above .600.

Jose Urquidy is 5-2 with an ERA of 5.2 away from home in 10 starts this season. Meanwhile, Marco Gonzales is 3-4 with an ERA of 3.21 in nine home starts. However, Urquidy has struggled against Seattle this season, allowing a total of 15 runs in 13 innings pitched. Gonzales has seen a lot of the Astros this season, pitching a total of 20.1 innings against Houston, while allowing only a total of six runs.

The Astros lost two of three to the Oakland Athletics before the All-Star break. They played a double-header against the Yankees on Thursday night and closer Ryan Pressly is out on the paternity list. On the other hand, the Mariners have looked great during their 14-game winning streak, while picking up sweeps against the Padres and Blue Jays.

I’ll take the better odds and the home team.

Prediction: Seattle Mariners

Astros vs Mariners Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in six out of the last nine games played between the Astros and Mariners. The under is also 4-1 in the last five meetings in Seattle.

Houston Astros over/under betting trends:

• Under is 5-0 in the Astros’ last 5 overall.

• Under is 31-15-1 in the Astros’ last 47 road games.

• Under is 5-0 in the Astros’ last 5 on grass.

• Under is 21-9 in the Astros’ last 30 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• Under is 42-20-2 in the Astros’ last 64 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• Under is 5-0-1 in the Astros’ last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

• Under is 4-0 in the Astros’ last 4 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

• Under is 5-1-1 in the Astros’ last 7 versus a team with a winning record.

• Under is 3-1-1 in the Astros’ last 5 road games against a team with a winning record.

• Under is 26-10 in the Astros’ last 36 versus American League West.

• Under is 8-3-1 in the Astros’ last 12 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Over is 11-4 in the Astros’ last 15 Game 1s of a series.

• Over is 5-0 in the Astros’ last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• Over is 3-0-1 in the Astros’ last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Over is 5-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Seattle Mariners over/under betting trends:

• Under is 5-2 in the Mariners’ in the last seven games against the American League West Division.

• Under is 5-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

• Under is 5-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• Under is 4-1 in the Mariners’ last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Under is 6-2 in the Mariners’ last 8 Friday games.

• Under is 19-7 in the Mariners’ last 26 home games.

• Under is 18-7 in the Mariners’ last 25 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• Under is 22-17 in the Mariners’ last 39 home games against the American League West Division.

• Over is 6-0 in the Mariners’ last 6 Game 1s of a series.

• Over is 20-9 in the Mariners’ last 29 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• Over is 43-21-1 in the Mariners’ last 65 games following an off day.

These teams are coming off the All-Star break so pitching is expected to look better than the hitting. Both pitchers have been shutting down their opponents in their last seven games played.

Gonzales has an ERA of 3.38 during that span and he’s allowed just two or fewer runs in six out of those seven games played. Meanwhile, Urquidy has an ERA of 3.30 during that stretch and an ERA of 3.10 in his last three starts. The Astros have the best reliever ERA this season at .266 while the Mariners are 8th at 3.45.

Houston has scored an average of 2.91 runs in their 12 meetings this season. These teams have combined to score an average of 6.60 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. Houston has conceded just a total of 16 runs in their last five games played. This one should be a low-scoring game as well.

These two teams are pitching well this season and have two of the best bullpens in the majors.

Prediction: Under 8.5

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