Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning Game 4 Preview and Prediction

Game 4 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals will be on Wednesday night at 8 p.m. E.T. at the Amalie Arena.

The Tampa Bay Lightning made it a series once again when they defeated the Colorado Avalanche 6-2 in Game 3. With the win, the defending champions cut Colorado’s series lead down to 1-2.

Another big effort is needed on Wednesday as Tampa Bay could even up the series with another home win. The Lightning were also down 0-2 in their previous series played. They won the next four games to win the series.

Colorado was 56-19-7 on the season including a 24-14-3 away record. Meanwhile, the Lighting were 51-23-8 and 27-8-6 at home this campaign.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche lost a golden chance to go up 3-0 when they lost Game 3 after taking an early 1-0 lead. Despite that, their offense has been very good in the Stanley Cup Final, scoring 13 goals in the games played. Nathan McKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Valeri Nichuskin have scored six goals with four assists.

Meanwhile, Mikko Rantanen and Andre Burakovsky have combined for two goals and 10 assists in the first three games of the series to lead the middle forward line. On the other hand, defensemen Josh Manson and Cale Makar have contributed three goals and two assists.

Defensively, however, the Avalanche needs to bounce back big after allowing six goals in Game 3 while conceding only three goals in the first two games of the series. Devon Toews and Cale Makar have forced turnovers and turned defense to offense but the rest have not played as well. In Game 3, Darcy Kuemper allowed five goals on 22 shots and was pulled from the game in the second period.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning looked like they were on the ropes down 0-2 in the series but they scored six goals at home in Game 3 to emphatically make it a competitive Stanley Cup Final again. Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Ondrej Palat lead the top line in offense with three goals and five assists in the series, including two goals and four assists in Game 3.

Nick Paul, Pat Maroon, and Anthony Cirelli have combined for four goals and two assists in three games played in the series while defensemen Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev have a total of one goal and three assists.

Tampa Bay’s defense also stepped up in Game 3 as they allowed only two goals after conceding 11 in the first two games of the series. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy showed his true worth by saving 37 out of 39 shots on goal. Meanwhile, Ryan McDonagh and Mikhail Sergachev have played well with top-pairing Victor Hedman and Jan Rutta to force turnovers and limit shots on the net.

Avalanche vs Lightning Prediction

The Avalanche are 4-1 in their last five games played against the Lightning. The betting favorite is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings between these two teams. The home team is also 4-0 in their last four head-to-head encounters.

The Avalanche are:

• 58-20 in their last 78 overall.

• 7-1 in their last 8 road games.

• 10-2 in their last 12 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.

• 21-5 in their last 26 games following a loss of 3 or more goals.

• 41-10 in their last 51 games after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

• 4-1 in their last 5 Stanley Cup Finals games.

• 64-19 in their last 83 games as a favorite.

• 56-22 in their last 78 games when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.

• 38-15 in their last 53 games against the Atlantic Division.

• 20-8 in their last 28 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.

• 36-15 in their last 51 playoff games as a favorite.

• 36-15 in their last 51 versus a team with a winning record.

• 38-17 in their last 55 games as a road favorite.

• 40-18 in their last 58 against the Eastern Conference.

• 41-19 in their last 60 games playing on one day rest.

• 37-18 in their last 55 Wednesday games.

The Lightning are:

• 11-4 in their last 15 games played overall.

• 41-15 in their last 56 home games.

• 11-4 in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• 8-2 in their last 10 games following a win.

• 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.

• 6-2 in their last 8 versus the Central Division.

• 45-16 in their last 61 Wednesday games.

• 13-5 in their last 18 playoff games as an underdog.

• 152-59 in their last 211 games when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.

• 38-15 in their last 53 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.

• 7-3 in their last 10 against the Western Conference.

• 9-4 in their last 13 Stanley Cup Finals games.

• 103-47 in their last 150 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

• 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.

Down 0-2 and playing in a must-win Game 3 following a 7-0 shut-out loss in Game 2, the Lightning responded with a terrific wire-to-wire performance in Game 3. Gabriel Landeskog opened the scoring for the Avalanche but the Lightning responded with three consecutive goals before Landeskog added a second goal midway in the second period. But Tampa Bay was not to be denied as they scored three more times to make the win official at 6-2.

Now the pressure is on Colorado not to let Tampa Bay even the series. Remember that the Lightning were down 0-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals when the New York Rangers allowed them to tie the series 2-2. Tampa Bay ended up winning four in a row to book a ticket to the Stanley Cup Final. In their opening round series, the Lightning were also down 3-2 against the Toronto Maple Leafs before winning the final two games to advance to the next round.

Ande Vasilevskiy finally displayed his true stuff as he stopped 37 out of 39 shots on goal in Game 3. Vasilevskiy will need to continue to play at this level if the Lightning are to strike again in Game 4. The Avalanche outshot the Lightning 39-32 with the scoring chances at 51-30 in favor of Tampa Bay. However, Vasilevskiy made the difference.

For Colorado, they will have to keep up their aggressive play on offense. For as long as they continue to outshoot and out chance Tampa Bay in Game 4, they might just find a way to break through. Also, Nathan McKinnon only has two assists in his first three contests. Look for him to wake up in Game 4 as well.

Momentum has shifted and Tampa Bay has been excellent at home in the postseason. With the Lightning offense waking up when they needed it most, look for the defending champions to deliver another impressive home performance.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning

Avalanche vs Lightning Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in seven out of the last eight head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The over is also 5-0 in their last five games played in Tampa Bay.

Colorado Avalanche over/under trends:

• Over is 4-0 in the Avalanche’s last 4 overall.

• Over is 6-2 in the Avalanche’s last 8 road games.

• Over is 5-2 in the Avalanche’s last 7 games as a road favorite.

• Over is 15-6-2 in the Avalanche’s last 23 Wednesday games.

• Over is 7-3 in the Avalanche’s last 10 games as a favorite.

• Over is 7-3 in the Avalanche’s last 10 playoff games as a favorite.

• Over is 4-1 in the Avalanche’s last 5 games following a loss of 3 or more goals.

• Over is 4-1 in the Avalanche’s last 5 versus the Eastern Conference.

• Over is 5-0 in the Avalanche’s last games 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

• Over is 5-0-1 in the Avalanche’s last 6 versus the Atlantic Division

• Over is 4-0 in the Avalanche’s last 4 against a team with a winning record.

• Under is 4-1 in the Avalanche’s last 5 games after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1-2 in the Avalanche’s last 7 Stanley Cup Finals games.

The trend in the series is that the home team has come up with big scoring games. Colorado scored four goals in Game 1 and seven in Game 2. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay had six goals in Game 3. If that trend continues, then we will likely have another high-scoring game.

Darcy Kuemper has a good 8-3 playoff record but his 2.76 GAA and .892 save percentage in 13 starts looks like something that Tampa Bay can take advantage of. Five Tampa Bay players had two points in Game 3 and the Lightning have scored at least three goals in six out of their last eight postseason games.

Colorado’s offense has also proven it can light up the scoreboards. The betting trends say over. The first three games of the series have seen the OVER cash in. This one should be no different, especially with the defending champions at home and coming off a big performance in Game 3. Give me these teams to hit the OVER.

Prediction: Over 6

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