Baylor vs Oklahoma State NCAA Basketball 02/21/2022 Preview and Prediction

The Baylor Bears visit Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater to take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Monday night.

No. 7 ranked Baylor bounced back from a loss to Texas Tech with a 72-62 victory against the TCU Horned Frogs last Saturday. The Bears are 22-5 SU on the season and they are 2nd in the Big 12 with a conference record of 10-4, just 1.5 games behind the Kansas Jayhawks who are 10-4 SU in the Big 12. In their last game, freshmen Jeremy Sochan and Kendall Brown scored 17 and 13 points respectively to lead the Bears.

Oklahoma State also rebounded from a 56-55 loss to Oakland with an 82-79 overtime win over Kansas State last Saturday. The Cowboys are 13-13 SU overall on the season and they are currently the 5th ranked team in the Big 12 with a conference record of 6-8. They are 5.5 games off the Kansas Jayhawks who are on top of the Conference. In their most recent game, Avery Anderson hit the game-winning three-pointer with 3.5 ticks left in the OT period.

Baylor Bears

James Akinjo leads Baylor in scoring at 13.2 points per game but is shooting below 40% from the field. Akinjo also leads the Bears in passing at 5.8 assists per game and steals with 2.0 thefts per contest. Adam Flagler is the second leading scorer at 13.0 points per game but he is questionable for this game. Baylor is also without LJ Cryer, Langston Love, and Jonathan Thcamwa Thcatchoua who are all injured.

Baylor ranks 39th in the nation in scoring at 77.5 points per game. They are shooting 77.1% from the field and 35.6% From deep. The Bears rank 31st in the nation in scoring defense at 63.0 points per game allowed with opponents shooting only 42.5% from the floor and 30.1% from deep against them this season. They pull down 33.9 rebounds per game while giving up just 28.3 boards per contest.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Avery Anderson leads OSU with 11.8 points per game while shooting 40% from the floor in 27.8 minutes per game. Anderson also leads the team with 1.8 steals per game. Isaac Likekele is the team’s best passer at 3.5 assists per game while also scoring 7.1 points per contest on 43.5% shooting. Moussa Cisse is the Cowboys’ top rebounder at 5.9 boards per game and is also the team’s top shot-blocker at 1.6 swats per contest.

Oklahoma State ranks 24th in opponents FG shooting at 39.7% while conceding only 67.3 points per game this season. The Cowboys are also allowing their opponents to shoot 33.0% of their three balls. Off the glass, they average 33.8 rebounds per game while giving up 32.2 boards per contest. OSU is scoring 70 points per game this season and is dishing off just 13.0 assists per game.

Who Wins?

Baylor is 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played. The Bears are 13-4 SU in their last 17 road games and 11-3 SU in their last 14 games against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 3-6 SU in their last nine games played. Oklahoma State is 5-1 SU in their last six games played at home.

Akinjo had 8 assists last Saturday while Brown has stepped up and helped with the ball movement. Baylor also held TCU to 18% shooting from long distance last Saturday and that defense should come in handy against Thompson and Anderson.

With the season winding down, Baylor needs to win the games that they are supposed to win, like this one. If they want to end up with the #1 or #2 seed in the NCAA tournament, they better start playing up to par. Given the challenge, I think they will.

Prediction: Baylor Bears

Other Bets to Make

Baylor is 14-12-1 ATS in 287 games played this season. The Bears are 5-4 ATS in nine road games played this season, 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 49-23-2 ATS in their last 74 road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win, and 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 road games.

Oklahoma State is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games played. The Cowboys are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Monday games, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 game against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win, 0-4 ATS in their last four games against an opponent with a winning road record, and 5-9 ATS in 14 home games played this year.

Head to head, the road team is 15-4-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings between these two teams. Oklahoma State is also 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against Baylor.

The Bears have covered six out of their last 10 games played while the Cowboys are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played. Although the Bears are short-handed here, they still have one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing just 63.0 points per game, 31st in the league. Baylor is also holding down opponents to only 30.1% shooting from deep and with Oklahoma State making just 30.2% from three-point distance, look for the Cowboys to struggle with their three-point shooting.

Baylor is also ranked 31st in rebounding and is outrebounding opponents by 5.6 boards per contest. This should be a tough scoring night for the Cowboys.

Prediction: Baylor Bears -5

The total has gone under in three out of the last five games played by Baylor. The under is 4-2 in their last six February games, 5-1 in their last five road games played on a Monday, 5-2-1 in their last eight road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage better than .600, and 5-0 ATS in their last six road games against Oklahoma State.

The total has gone under in 8 out of the 14 home games played by the Cowboys this season. The under is 6-1 in Oklahoma’s last seven games after a straight up win, 4-0 in their last four home games after an ATS loss, 6-1 in their last seven home games after an ATS win, 5-2 in their last seven home games against an opponent from the Big 12 Conference with a winning percentage better than .600, and 4-2 in their last six February home games against a Big 12 Conference opponent.

As stated earlier, Baylor is conceding just 63 points per game this season and although they lost the game, they held the Cowboys to 61 points in their last meeting on January 15, 2022. In that game, these teams combined for a measly total of 105 points, way below this current total of 138.5 points.

Oklahoma State is also a very good defensive team this season and they allow their opponents to shoot just 39.7% from the field, 31st best in the nation. The Cowboys are also holding down their foes to 67.3 points per game this season.

I think it’s going to be close but because of the defenses that these two teams put up on a nightly basis, I’m going with the under for this bet.

Prediction: Under 138.5

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