Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions 11/25/2021 NFL Preview and Prediction

The Chicago Bears hit the road and take on the Detroit Lions at the Ford Field in one of the NFL’s three Thanksgiving Thursday games.

Chicago came up short at home against the Baltimore Ravens last week despite the latter playing without Lamar Jackson. The 16-13 loss was Chicago’s fifth straight defeat and their second straight by three points or less. The Bears are 3-7 SU on the season and they are in 3rd place in the NFC North and a far 4.5 games behind the Green Bay Packers for the division lead.

Detroit remained winless on the season after falling short 13-10 against the Cleveland Browns last week. The Lions, however, covered the 14-point spread and are a good 6-4 ATS this season. However, what stands out is that they are 0-9-1 this season and winless in their last 14 games overall at 0-13-1 which is the current longest losing streak in the league.

Chicago Bears

Chicago rallied from an early 6-0 deficit against the Lamar-less Ravens last week to take a 13-9 lead with 1:41 left on the clock. However, their defense allowed Baltimore to march 79 yards down the field in just five plays including the game-winning touchdown.

Andy Dalton has completed 48 of 73 passes for 471 passing yards with three touchdowns and one interception. David Montgomery is the team’s best rushing option with 430 yards on 96 carries with three rushing touchdowns. Darnell Mooney has 41 catches for 571 receiving yards plus three scores while Allen Robinson has 30 catches for 339 yards with one TD grab.

The Bears are the worst passing team in the NFL at 155.8 yards per game this season but are the 6th best rushing team at 132.1 yards per game. Chicago is ranked 29th in scoring at only 16.3 points per game this season and has the league’s 21st best scoring defense at 24.0 points per game allowed.

Detroit Lions

Detroit fell behind early 13-0 against the Cleveland Browns last weekend but played the solid second half and shut down the Browns offense in the final two-quarters of play. But after cutting the lead to 13:10 with 9 minutes to play, they got the ball only once and the Browns controlled the ball and the time to hang on and win.

Tim Boyle has completed 15 of 27 passes this season for 77 yards with two interceptions. D’Andre Swift leads the Lions with 555 rushing yards on 137 carries with four touchdowns while TJ Hockenson leads the team with 499 receiving yards on 54 catches with two TD grabs.

The Lions are 30th in the NFL in passing at 197.8 passing yards per game. They are 16th in rushing at 114.2 yards per contest. Detroit has the league’s third-worst scoring offense at only 16.0 points per game scored. They also have the third-worst scoring defense at 27.3 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

Chicago is 0-5 SU in their last five games played. The Bears are 1-5 SU in their last six games played on the road. Detroit is 0-13-1 SU in their last 14 games played. The Lions are 0-8 SU in their last eight games played at home.

Detroit came close to winning their first game of the season the last time out against Cleveland, only to end up losing 13-10. It was the 4th time this season where the Lions have lost a game decided by three points or less, including a tie against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.

With Justin Fields still out with a rib injury, Andy Dalton will start for the Bears on Thursday. Dalton replaced fields last week when he got hurt and he threw two long TD passes including a 49-yard TD pass to give the Bears the lead with 1:44 left to play. Unfortunately for him, the defense allowed the Ravens to march down the field in their final play, scoring a TD with 22 seconds left for the win.

The Bears’ spirit may be wounded badly from the recent tough losses they’ve experienced but if they can shake off those defeats and play focused in Detroit, their defense will be good enough to smother the Lions and win this game. Between that and the Lions throwing the ball better than they have in the last two weeks, the former is likelier to happen.

Prediction: Chicago Bears

Other Bets to Make

The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a losing record and also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against an opponent with a losing home record.

However Chicago is just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as betting favorites, 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 Thursday games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against the NFC North, 1-4 ATS in their last five November games, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

The Lions are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on field turf, 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Detroit is 1-5 ATS in their last six games after an ATS win, 3-14 ATS in their last 17 Week 12 games, 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 November games, 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

When these two teams play, it’s usually a close game and that should be the case here too. Due to injuries, both teams will have their second-string quarterbacks starting the game and the Bears have the edge here as Dalton has more experience than Tim Boyle.

The Bears won their first meeting of the season and their last two losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore came in the final minute of games which they could’ve won. There’s no question that between these two, the Bears have been more competitive against the league and they have shown great fight in the last two weeks. Chicago should be able to build off those accomplishments and beat a team that is playing worse than them right now.

Prediction: Bears -3

The total has gone under in seven out of the Bears’ last nine games played. The under is 4-1 in their last five games after picking up 250 or more passing yards in their previous game, 23-9 in their last 32 games after a straight-up loss, 5-2 in their last seven games after an ATS loss, 5-2 in their last seven Week 12 games, and 17-7 in their last 24 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

The total has gone under in seven out of the last eight games played by the Lions. The under is 7-1 in their last eight games as an underdog, 6-1 in their last seven games after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game, 6-1 in their last seven after a straight-up loss, and 4-1 in their last five games on field turf,

These are two teams that have issues in scoring. The Bears have the 4th worst scoring offense in the NFL while the Lions are one spot worse than them at 3rd. With both starting QBs out for this game, having their backups start this contest will even make this a low-scoring affair.

With their offensive struggles, look for both teams to turn to their defense to try and win this game. As we’ve seen these teams do before, this will likely be another defensive battle where the better defense wins it. Regardless of who wins, points will be hard to come by.

Prediction: Under 41

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