Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots 10/24/2022 NFL Preview and Prediction

The Chicago Bears head to the Gillette Stadium on Monday night to take on the New England Patriots.

Chicago is 2-4 SU overall and 0-2 SU in the NFC North. They are third in the latest division standings, three games behind the leaders Minnesota Vikings. The Bears dropped their third straight game last week after losing to the Washington Commanders 12-7 last Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are 3-3 SU overall and 0-1 in the AFC East. New England is last in the AFC East, tied with the Miami Dolphins at three games behind leaders Buffalo. The Pats defeated the Cleveland Browns 38-15 last week for their second consecutive win.

New England has won the last three head-to-head meetings between these two teams, including a 38-31 win in Chicago in their last meeting on 10/21/2018.

Chicago Bears

The Bears are one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL this season. Chicago ranks next to last in scoring at 15.5 points per game scored this year. The offense is putting up only 293.5 total yards of offense per game this season, 28th overall. Their rushing attack is leading the way with 170.7 yards per game while the Bears’ passing game is averaging 122.8 yards per contest. Justin Fields has passed for 869 yards with four TDs and 5 INTs. Khalil Herbert leads the team with 402 rushing yards with three rush TDs. Darnell Mooney has caught 17 passes for 241 yards.

Defensively, Chicago has not been that bad at all. They are in fact 11th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game allowed and 16th in defense at 341.7 yards conceded per game. The Bears give up 163.0 rushing yards per outing and 178.7 passing yards per game. Linebacker Roquan Smith leads the team with 66 tackles. Safety Eddie Johnson leads the team with 3 INTs while three players have three sacks each.

New England Patriots

The defense has been the key to the Patriots’ success this season. New England ranks 7th in the NFL with only 18.8 points per game conceded and 12th in defense at 337.8 total yards allowed per game. The Patriots give up 119.0 rushing yards per game and 218.8 passing yards per game this season. Linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley leads the team in tackles with 32 while Matthew Judon leads the team with 6.0 sacks and Deatrich Wise Jr. has 5.0 sacks. Jack Jones and Jalen Mills have 2 interceptions each.

New England is scoring 23.5 points per game this season which is the 12th-best in the NFL. They are 13th in passing yards at 354.7 per contest. The Patriots are averaging 223.3 passing yards per game and 131.3 rushing yards per contest. Mac Jones has 596 passing yards with four TDs and one INT but is questionable for Monday. Rhamondre Stevenson is the team’s leading rusher with 448 yards and 3 TDs. Jakobi Meyers leads the team with 24 catches for 321 receiving yards and one TD.

Bears vs Patriots SU Prediction

The Bears are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games played against the Patriots. Chicago is winless in its last four games played n New England.

Chicago Bears SU trends:

• The Bears are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Bears are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played on the road.
• The Bears are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games played in October.

New England Patriots SU trends:

• The Patriots are 3-5 SU in their last 8 games played.
• The Patriots are 15-2 SU in their last 17 Week 7 games played.
• The Patriots are 14-6 SU in their last 20 Monday games.

Once again, the Bears showed a glimpse of what they can do on offense with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Unfortunately, they fell short against a Washington Commanders team that played with Caron Wentz dealing with a fractured finger and passing for only 99 yards.

The Bears have scored 12 or fewer points in three out of its last four losses and could be headed for another tough offensive night against a Patriots defense that shut down the Detroit Lions 29-0 in their last home game in Week 5.

For Chicago to win, they must stay committed to the run. The Bears have found success in running the football and they need to keep doing that in order to take the pressure off Justin Fields. Chicago has an excellent 1-2 punch in David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert and the Bears must go to them on Monday.

Rookie Bailey Zappe has stepped in without Mac Jones. The Patriots rookie showed good poise in the pocket and could be in line for another start in case New England wants to give Jones more time to heal from a high-ankle sprain, if ever.

The 4th round pick from Western Kentucky is the NCAA’s all-time passing leader and he looked excellent in his first start, on the road in Cleveland, with 309 passing yards with two TDs and zero INTs.

Whether it’s Zappe or Jones starting behind center, the Patriots have the QB to control this game with passing. I think that New England’s passing game is going to give them a good lead early and then Belichick will let running back Rhamondre Stevenson kill the clock while their defense tries to keep Fields in check.

Prediction: New England Patriots

Bears vs Patriots ATS Prediction

The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games played against the Patriots. Chicago is 1-3 ATS in their last 5 games played at Gillette Stadium. The betting favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four games played between these two teams.

Chicago Bears ATS trends:

• The Bears are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• The Bears are 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf.
• The Bears are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
• The Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 7.

New England Patriots ATS trends:

• The Patriots are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 7.
• The Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
• The Patriots are 36-13-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The Patriots are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
• The Patriots are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 37-15-2 ATS in their last 54 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 48-20-2 ATS in their last 70 games in October.
• The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The Patriots are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games against a team with a losing record.

The strength of the Chicago offense is its running attack which is putting up 170.7 yards per game. Unfortunately for them, the New England defense is allowing just 119.0 rushing yards per game, and that defense will force the Bears to turn to their passing game which is averaging just 122.8 yards per game through the air this season.

The Patriots will stack the line of scrimmage and stop the Bears’ run. This will make the Bears try and beat them with their passing game, which looks unlikely. Meanwhile, there shouldn’t be too much difference in the New England offense regardless of who starts on Monday.

The Pats have covered the spread in their last four games played against the Bears. Chicago is also 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as betting underdogs and New England is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as betting favorites. I’ll lay the points here and pick the Pats to win by double-digits.

Prediction: New England Patriots -9

Bears vs Patriots Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in five out of the last six head-to-head meetings between the Bears and Patriots.

Chicago Bears over/under trends:

• The under is 4-2 in the Bears’ last 6 games played overall.
• The under is 11-2 in the Bears’ last 13 games in October.
• The under is 6-2 in the Bears’ last 8 Monday games.
• The under is 8-3 in the Bears’ last 11 games in Week 7.
• The under is 9-3 in the Bears’ last 12 games against the AFC Conference.
• The over is 4-1 in the Bears’ last 5 games against the AFC East Division.
• The over is 4-0 in the Bears’ last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 5-1 in the Bears’ last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 4-1 in the Bears’ last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The over is 5-2 in the Bears’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

New England Patriots over/under trends:

• Over is 7-3 in the Patriots’ last 10 games overall.
• Over is 7-1 in the Patriots’ last 8 home games.
• Over is 4-0 in the Patriots’ last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1 in the Patriots’ last 7 games in October.
• Over is 5-1 in the Patriots’ last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in the Patriots’ last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 9-2 in the Patriots’ last 11 games on field turf.
• Over is 5-2 in the Patriots’ last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
• Under is 6-1 in the Patriots’ last 7 Monday games.
• Under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

The Bears are next to last in scoring in the NFL at only 15.5 points per game this season. They are also a team that leans on their rushing attack on offense which takes up plenty of precious game time.

Both teams are also good on defense this season with the Bears allowing just 19.7 points per game and the Patriots even better at 18.8 points per game this season. As stated above, the Bears have gone under in all but two of their last 13 October games while the Pats have gone under in all but one of their last Monday games. This should be a low-scoring contest.

Prediction: Under 40

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