Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals 01/02/2023 NFL Odds and Prediction

Two of the hottest teams in the NFL square off on Monday Night Football in what could be a playoff matchup in the AFC.

The 12-4 SU Buffalo Bills are the current top-seed in the AFC conference. While the 11-4 SU Cincinnati Bengals are third in the latest conference team standings. Of course, the Bengals are the defending AFC Conference champions after reaching Super Bowl LVI last season. But if Cincinnati wants to return to the big dance, they must beat Buffalo on Monday night.

Meanwhile, the Bills can clinch the top seed in the AFC if they beat the Bengals and if somehow the Denver Broncos defeat the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend. If the Bills and Chiefs end up with identical records, Buffalo gets the nod since they defeated Kansas City on the road last October 16th. Kansas City currently sits as the no. 2 seed in their conference.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo has scored over 30 points thrice during its current six-game winning run, including 35 on the road against the Bears last week. The Bills rushed for a season-high 254 yards against Chicago last weekend and were led by Devin Singletary’s 106 yards and James Cook’s 99 yards.

Josh Allen has passed for 4,029 yards with 32 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while Devin Singletary has rushed for 790 yards with 5 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Allen has also rushed for 746 yards with 7 TD runs. Stefon Diggs leads the team with 1,325 receiving yards and 10 TD grabs.

The Bills are 4th in the NFL in scoring at 28.0 points per game this season. They are also second in scoring defense at just 17.5 points per game allowed. The defense is also giving up only 317.7 offensive yards per game while racking up 402.3 yards of offense, 2nd best in the league this season.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have also scored at least 30 points three times during their seven games. However, they put up only 22 last week against the New England Patriots and nearly lost before the Pats self-destructed. In that game, Cincinnati led 22-0 before New England scored the final 18 points of the game to close the gap.

Joe Burrow has passed for 4,260 yards with 34 TDs and 12 interceptions on the season. Joe Mixon is the team’s leading rusher with 787 yards while also scoring 6 rushing touchdowns. Tee Higgins has 1,022 receiving yards with 7 touchdown catches while Ja’Marr Chase had 8 TD grabs while catching 960 yards.

Cincinnati is 6th in the NFL in scoring at 26.1 points per game this season. They are 7th overall with 367.4 total offensive yards per game. The Bengals are however just 26th in rushing at 98.2 yards per game this season.

Bills vs Bengals SU Prediction

The Bills are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bengals. Buffalo is also 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played in Cincinnati.

Buffalo Bills SU trends:

• The Bills are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games played overall.
• The Bills are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games played on the road.
• The Bills are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games played against the AFC.
• The Bills are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played against the AFC North.

Cincinnati Bengals SU trends:

• The Bengals are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games played overall.
• The Bengals are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played at home.
• The Bengals are 4-1 SU in their last 5 January games played.
• The Bengals are 5-2 SU in their last 7 Week 17 games played.

Since losing to the Vikings 33-30 in overtime in Week 10, the Buffalo Bills have silently put up a six-game winning streak. Buffalo won its 12th game of the season last week against Chicago in a game where they trailed 10-6 before outsourcing the Bears 29-3 in the second half. Devin Singletary and James Cook each had long TD runs while Josh Allen threw and run for a touchdown during that stretch.

Allen didn’t have a good game as he was picked off twice by the Bears. However, the Bills kept their composure and knew they were better than the Bears. Buffalo regrouped in the second half and pulled off the come-from-behind win. Things will be different this weekend against the streaking Bengals, who are coming off an appearance at Super Bowl LVI last season.

The Bengals have won seven straight games although, in the last two, they had to work hard for the wins. Cincinnati trailed 17-0 against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before pulling off the 34-23 win two weeks ago. The Bengals nearly blew a 22-0 lead against the New England Patriots last week. Luckily, they held on to win 22-18.

Cincinnati got help from New England last week as the Pats missed two extra-point attempts and a two-point conversion on their three touchdowns. New England RB Rhamondre Stevenson also fumbled on a first-and-goal play in the final minutes that helped the Bengals escape with a win.

Allen cannot afford to commit the same turnovers this week. While he was able to get away with it against the Bears, the Bengals will be able to take advantage of any Buffalo turnover. While the Bills may end up not playing away from home in the postseason, the Bengals are a good test for them to prove they are legit contenders.

QB Joe Burrow has entered the MVP conversation along with Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts. While he may be on the outside looking at the three, his Bengals are red hot right now with seven straight wins. Earlier this year, he beat Mahomes and the Chiefs for the third straight game and there is no question he can do the same to Allen and the Bills.

This should be played like a playoff game with both teams going back and forth at each other. In the end, though, I like Josh Allen to make a difference for the Bills.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Bills vs Bengals ATS Prediction

The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games played between these two teams.

Buffalo Bills ATS trends:

• The Bills are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games on field turf.
• The Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 17.
• The Bills are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Bills are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Bills are 11-5-3 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The Bills are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played against a team with a winning record
• The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Cincinnati Bengals ATS trends:

• The Bengals are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
• The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games
• The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
• The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in January
• The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
• The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 17.
• The Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on field turf.
• The Bengals are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight-up win.
• The Bengals are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Bengals are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Bengals are 16-5 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
• The Bengals are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games played against the AFC.
• The Bengals are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.
• The Bengals are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games overall.

This one should be a close and well-fought game between two legit Super Bowl contenders and two of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. Both teams have elite quarterbacks and I think the main difference in this game will be the Buffalo defense which is ranked 2nd in the league in scoring defense.

Buffalo’s pass rush should force the Bengals to run the football more than usual. Buffalo’s defense has recorded 39 QB sacks and 14 INTs this season. And the running game is Cincinnati’s weakness as the Bengals are averaging just 98.2 rushing yards per game this season. Cincinnati’s passing defense is also just 21st in the league and that won’t work against Josh Allen who is one of the best QBs in the game today.

This should be a good game but the Bills should emerge victorious.

Prediction: Bills -1

Bills vs Bengals Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in 7 out of the last 10 games played between these two teams.

Buffalo Bills over/under trends:

• The under is 9-4 in the Bills’ last 13 games overall.
• The under is 7-1 in the Bills’ last 8 road games.
• The under is 5-0 in the Bills’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 6-1 in the Bills’ last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 8-2 in the Bills’ last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 7-2 in the Bills’ last 9 games played against the AFC.
• The under is 6-2 in the Bills’ last 8 games in Week 17.
• The under is 6-2 in the Bills’ last 8 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 25-9 in the Bills’ last 34 games on field turf.
• The over is 11-5 in the Bills’ last 16 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
• The over is 10-2 in the Bills’ last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 10-4 in the Bills’ last 14 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Cincinnati Bengals over/under trends:

• The under is 3-0-1 in the Bengals’ last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 7-0 in the Bengals’ last 7 games against a team with a winning record.
• The under is 4-0 in the Bengals’ last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The under is 11-1 in the Bengals’ last 12 games in January.
• The under is 13-3-1 in the Bengals’ last 17 games against the AFC.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bengals’ last 5 games overall.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bengals’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bengals’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 10-3 in the Bengals’ last 13 games on field turf.
• The under is 6-2 in the Bengals’ last 8 home games.
• The under is 18-7-1 in the Bengals’ last 26 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Bengals’ last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 7-3 in the Bengals’ last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

These teams have combined to score an average of 49.2 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings but only 34.0 points per game in their last three games played. The Bills have the second-best scoring defense in the NFL this season.

Cincinnati has conceded 24 or fewer points six times during their seven-game winning streak. They have gone under four times in their last five games played. Meanwhile, Buffalo has allowed 25 or fewer points five times in their last six games played.

This one should be a playoff-type game with both defenses stepping up.

Prediction: Under 49.5

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