Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs 10/16/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

It’s a battle between the top two betting favorites to win Super Bowl LVII when the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

The Bills are 4-1 SU on the season and are on top of the AFC East Division team standings. Buffalo heads to this game coming off back-to-back wins over the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last weekend, the Bills put on a clinic, scoring 38 points against the Steelers while holding them down to just 3 points scored in the game.

The Chiefs are also 4-1 SU on the year and they are on top of the AFC West Division standings. Kansas City is also on a two-game winning streak as they defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Las Vegas Raiders in the previous two weeks. The last time out, Kansas City needed Patrick Mahomes to weave his magic and rally from a 17-0 deficit to win the game 30-29.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are looking for revenge on Sunday as it was Kansas City that ended their playoff run last season. In that divisional round game, Buffalo was up by a field goal with a minute left in regulation. But Mahomes drove the Chiefs to field goal position and they were able to send the game to overtime where they pulled off the comeback. The Bills have upgraded, especially on defense, after signing Von Miller during the offseason.

Buffalo is the no. 1 rated offense in the NFL at 440.1 yards per game and 30.4 points per contest. They are also excellent on the other end of the field and have the second-best scoring defense overall at 12.2 points per game allowed and 260.4 yards per game conceded. Josh Allen has thrown for 1,651 yards with 14 TDs and only 4 INTs after five weeks.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have proved their detractors wrong. After losing Tyreek Hill during the offseason, many were doubtful of Kansas City’s ability to keep up their high-scoring attack. However, the Chiefs are still the top-scoring team in the NFL at 31.8 points per game this season. They have rebuilt their offensive line after their loss to the Bucs in Super Bowl LV.

While the offense has looked better than ever, the Kansas City defense has been inconsistent, to say the least. The Chiefs lost one of their top defensive players from last season Tyran Mathieu and the secondary has struggled. The KC defense has allowed 25 points per game this season and is 22nd overall in defense. The Chiefs only have one pro bowler on defense in Chris Jones and last week, they gave up 29 against the Raiders and nearly lost.

Who Wins?

The Bills are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games played against the Chiefs. Buffalo is, however, 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played at Arrowhead Stadium.

Buffalo Bills SU trends:

• The Bills are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played.
• The Bills are 2-1 SU in 3 road games played so far this season.
• The Bills are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games against the AFC.
• The Bills are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played in October

Kansas City Chiefs SU trends:

• The Chiefs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played overall.
• The Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played at home.
• The Chiefs are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games played against the AFC East Division.
• The Chiefs are 8-4 SU in their last 12 Week 6 games played.

The Bills are coming off a huge performance in a 38-3 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Josh Allen passed for 348 yards and tossed 4 TD passes in the first half alone. Allen would finish with 424 passing yards and 42 rushing yards.

Meanwhile, Gabe Davis had a massive night with 171 receiving yards on just 3 catches with two big TD grabs. Davis also caught 8 passes for 201 yards when the Bills played the Chiefs in the divisional round of the playoffs last season so he’s a guy to watch.

The Chiefs jumped the gun on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4 as they raced to a 21-3 lead before coasting for a 41-31 win. Last weekend, their path to victory was different as they fell behind early at 17-0 before coming back to win the game 30-29.

Patrick Mahomes completed just 29 of 43 passes for 292 passing yards with 4 TD passes and zero interceptions. All four TD passes were caught by Travis Kelce in one of the best performances of the season.

With both teams having excellent offenses and arguably the top two quarterbacks in the NFL right now, this game could go down to whose defense plays better. After Week 5, the Bills have one of the top defenses in the NFL but the same could not be said about the Chiefs who have given up at least 20 points in each of their last 10 games played and an average of 30 points per game in their last two outings.

Buffalo is however without its top cornerback Tre’Davious White and two key defensive players Tremaine Edwards and Jordan Poyer are questionable. There’s no question the Bills still have the better defense even if all three don’t play on Sunday. However, the Chiefs have always played with a better offense than defense and in this game, they will look to outscore the Bills in a shootout. Josh Allen has looked fantastic this season. But we’ve seen Mahomes play better in big games.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

Bills vs Chiefs ATS Prediction

The Bills are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 games played between these two teams. The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between Buffalo and Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills ATS trends:

• The Bills are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Bills are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
• The Bills are 13-5-3 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Bills are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up win.
• The Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
• The Bills are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Bills are 2-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

Kansas City Chiefs ATS trends:

• The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
• The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
• The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
• The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
• The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.

Buffalo’s decision to sign Von Miller is reaping its dividends as the Buffalo defense has looked so much better this season. The Bills are tied for first in scoring defense and are second overall in total defense. That defense will be their edge against a KC unit that has conceded 25 points per game this season.

However, the Chiefs know how to win with their mediocre defense. Patrick Mahomes and the offense are built to play big games and what their defense can’t do, the offense compensates and does even better. Josh Allen and the Bills have shown that they can put up points on the scoreboard. But I think that Mahomes and his offense will play better, especially since this game is played at Arrowhead.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs +3

Bills vs Chiefs Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played between these two teams. The over is also 5-1 in the last six games played in Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills over/under trends:

• Under is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 games overall.
• Under is 6-2 in the Bills’ last 8 games in October.
• Over is 6-2 in the Bills’ last 8 games against the AFC.
• Over is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 games against the AFC West Division.
• Over is 8-2 in the Bills’ last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
• Over is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Over is 10-3-1 in the Bills’ last 14 games on grass.
• Over is 5-2 in the Bills’ last 7 games in Week 6.
• Over is 7-3 in the Bills’ last 10 games following an ATS win.

Kansas City Chiefs over/under trends:

• Over is 10-3 in the Chiefs’ last 13 games overall.
• Over is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 home games.
• Over is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• Over is 8-2 in the Chiefs’ last 10 games on grass.
• Over is 6-2 in the Chiefs’ last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Over is 6-2 in the Chiefs’ last 8 games following an ATS win.
• Over is 8-3 in the Chiefs’ last 11 games following a straight-up win.
• Over is 8-3 in the Chiefs’ last 11 against the AFC.
• Over is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games in October.
• Over is 5-2 in the Chiefs ‘last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• Under is 6-2 in the Chiefs’ last 8 games in Week 6.
• Under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
• Under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Buffalo has one of the top defenses in the NFL. However, they are playing the most prolific offense in the league this season. Both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes can throw big numbers and they can easily lead their teams to score in their 30s.

These two teams have scored an average of 67.0 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings. With Allen and Mahomes trying to show who is the MVP betting favorite, this should be a high-scoring affair where both QBs play at their best.

Prediction: Over 54

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