Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans 01/04/20 NFL Betting Odds and Prediction

The Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans will open the 2019 NFL Playoffs with a Wild Card showdown at the NRG Stadium in Houston on Saturday afternoon.

The Bills finished second behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East with their 10-6 record. Buffalo rested its starters last week and they lost to the New York Jets. The Bills will be on the road for this contest but that isn’t a problem as they were 6-2 SU on the road this season. The Texans won four out of their last six games to earn home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Houston also dropped their final regular assignment to the Tennessee Titans while resting their starters.

Defensive-Minded Bills

Not much was expected of Buffalo this season but the defensive-minded Bills gave the defending Super Bowl champions New England Patriots a good chase in the AFC East division, finishing the regular season with a record of 10-6, just two games behind the division’s perennial winners.

The Bills scored just 19.6 points per game but they did have the 8th best rushing game in the NFL at 124.8 rushing yards per contest. The Buffalo defense is what stood out though as they allowed their opponents to score only 16.2 points per game while holding foes to 195.2 passing yards and 103.1 rushing yards per game.

Josh Allen passed for a total of 3,089 yards with 20 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Allen also rushed for 510 yards with nine rushing touchdowns. Devin Singletary had 775 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns while John Brown led the Bills with 72 catches for 1,060 yards with six touchdowns.

Texans Have Momentum

The Houston Texans head to this wild card game having momentum. The Texans won four out of their last six games to secure a home game in the first round of the 2019 NFL Playoffs. But to advance further, Houston needs to play better defense against the Buffalo Bills.

Houston ranked 13th in offense at 23.6 points per game scored this season. However, the Texans gave up an average of 24.0 points per game, including 28.5 in their last four regular-season assignments. Houston hopes that the return of J.J. Watt is going to perk up their defense on Saturday.

Deshaun Watson finished with 3,852 passing yards during the regular season. Watson tossed 26 touchdown passes and had 12 interceptions. Carlos Hyde rushed for a total of 1,070 yards with six touchdowns while DeAndre Hopkins caught a total of 1,165 yards with seven touchdowns.

Who Wins?

Buffalo is 1-3 SU in their last four games played. The Bills are 6-2 SU in eight road games played this season, 2-8 SU in their last 10 January games, and 3-10 SU in their last 13 Saturday games. Houston is 10-5 SU in their last 15 games played. The Texans are 5-3 SU in eight home games played this season, and 14-6 SU in their last 20 games against the AFC Conference. Head to head, the Texans are 4-1 SU in their last five games played against Bills.

Buffalo leans heavily on its rushing game which is led by Devin Singletary and Frank Gore. The duo combined for 66.8% of the team’s production on the ground and they should be key to Buffalo’s playoff success. Josh Allen has passed for more than 230 yards only twice in 13 games this season.

Deshaun Watson and Carlos Hyde are going to be crucial to Houston’s success here but they will need wide receiver Will Fuller to return from a groin injury. Former Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt is expected to return after missing the majority of the season with a torn pec but I’m not sure if he is going to make an impact if he indeed plays here.

The Bills have a good shot at winning this game because Houston isn’t a stout defensive team. Buffalo is going to run the ball here and Allen is going to help milk the clock. With a better defensive unit, the Bills should be able to hold the Texans down and score enough points to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

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Other Bets to Make

The Bills are 9-6-1 ATS in their last 16 games played. Buffalo is 6-1-1 ATS in eight road games played this season, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played against the AFC South Division. The Texans are 7-8-1 ATS in their last 16 games played. Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played at home, and 1-4 ATS in their last five January games. Head to head, the Texans are 5-4 ATS in their last nine games played against the Bills.

Josh Allen should be able to find holes against the Houston secondary and he should be able to move the ball comfortably. Buffalo is a terrific defensive team and their defense will be the key to victory here. Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games played and 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as home favorites. I’ll take the Bills at even money.

Prediction: Bills +2.5

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The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played by the Bills. Buffalo has seen the total go under in six out of their eight road games played this season. The total has gone under in six out of the last nine games played by the Texans. The under is 7-2 in Houston’s last nine games as the betting favorite. Head to head, the total has gone under in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams.

These teams have combined to score an average of 38.44 points per game in their last 10 meetings, and 41.33 points per game in their last three head to head encounters. Buffalo likes to play tough and ugly and that’s what this game will likely be. The total has gone under in 12 out of the last 15 road games played by the Bills and the average total score during that period was only 36.8 points.

Prediction: Under 44

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