Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat 09/23/2020 NBA Betting Odds and Pick

The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat square off in Game 4 of the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night at the AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida.

The Celtics won Game 3 to cut the Heat’s lead to 2-1. Boston got forward Gordon Hayward back and his presence was a big lift to the men in green. Hayward scored only six points but his defense and ability to penetrate the defense gave Boston what they lacked in the first two games of the series. The Heat rallied to win Games 1 and 2 but they came up short last Saturday. Coach Spo hopes that his team gets to a better start in Game 4 so they won’t need a comeback to win.

Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics finally got on board. After squandering a 14-point lead in Game 1 and a 17-point edge in Game 2, the Celtics finally got their act together in the third game of the series. Boston never trailed and led by as much as 20 points en route to a 117-106 win last Saturday. The Heat was able to cut the lead to five but the Celtics avoided falling to a 3-0 hole for the seventh time in 124 playoff series played by the franchise.

The Celtics got back Gordon Hayward after four weeks due to an ankle sprain. Hayward scored only six points but in his 31 minutes on the court, he was able to give Boston the versatility they lacked in the first two games of the series. Jaylen Brown scored 26 points on 11-17 shooting while Jayson Tatum added 25 points. Kemba Walker also scored 21 points while Marcus Smart contributed 20 points on 10-10 free-throw shooting.

Boston shot 48% from the field and 9-26 from behind the three-point arc. The Celtics set the tone with their defense, holding the Heat to only 22 points in the first quarter while scoring 32 points in the second quarter to build a 13-point halftime lead. The second half was closer but Boston played steadier down the stretch to pick up the win.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat got away with slow starts in the first two games of the series. After allowing the Celtics to build double-digit advantages, the Heat came from behind to take the opening two games of the series. However, their shots didn’t fall in Game 3 and the Celtics led from start to finish with Miami unable to get closer than 5 points during the game. If there was any consolation, it was that Miami had a 24-9 run in the fourth that got then to within five. It was the first time in the last 70 games where the Heat trailed the entire game.

All-star big man Bam Adebayo continued his impressive season. Adebayo scored 27 points and grabbed 16 rebounds to lead the Heat. Adebayo shot 10-14 from the field and 7-9 from the line. Rookie Tyler Herro added 22 points in 36 minutes of action off the bench including 16 in the second period. Jimmy Butler was held to 17 points while Goran Dragic only had 11. Jae Crowder shot 2-10 from deep and scored only 10 points.

Miami shot just 38% from the field and were 12-44 from the free-throw line. Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder shot 2-10 each from the field while Butler was held down to 13 shot attempts. The Heat were also outrebounded 59-47 and outscored in the paint 60-36 in Game 3. The Heat also conceded 17 fastbreak points and 19 points off turnovers.

Who Wins?

The Celtics are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games played. Boston is 14-5 SU in their last 19 games against the Southeast Division. The Heat are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played. Miami is 5-0 SU in their last five games played on the road. Head to head, the Celtics are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games played against the Heat.

The Celtics offense looked much better in Game 3 with Gordon Hayward back in action. No Hayward didn’t put up big numbers but his defense and ability to penetrate the middle opened up options for his teammates. His play was contagious as his teammates were also able to raise their level of play.

Miami struggled to shoot in Game 3, going 38.8% from the floor and 27.3% from deep. They need to get back on track or else the Celtics could end up tying the series. Coach Spo needs to make adjustments as the Celtics have figured out their zone defense. Miami has the manpower to play man-to-man defense so that could be an option.

We saw Boston’s defense win Game 3 and after a long rest, I think that this time, it’s their offense that will win it for them. Boston has its swagger back and as the 9th best team in offensive efficiency this season, the Celtics should have more than enough firepower to even up this series.

Prediction: Boston Celtics

Other Bets To Make

Boston is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played on the road. Miami is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played on the road. Head to head, the Heat are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Celtics. However, Boston is 11-4 when playing on the road against Miami.

The Celtics are the better team in this series and they have shown that in the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals. It’s just that they have not been able to hang on to leads in the first two games of the series. Game 3 was different with Gordon Hayward back. I think the extra rest will get Hayward in better shape and he should be able to contribute more to Boston’s cause. I think we’ll have another close game here but the Celtics should win by two possessions.

Prediction: Celtics -3

The total has gone under in seven out of the last 10 games played by the Celtics. Boston has seen the total go under in four out of their last five games played on the road. The under is also 9-3 in their last 12 games against the Eastern Conference. The over is 30-23-2 in the Heat’s 55 games against the Eastern Conference. The over is 8-0 in Miami’s last eight Wednesday games and The total has gone over in six out of their last nine games as the betting underdog.

These teams have hit the over in two of the first three games of the series and have gone over 210 points twice. They have combined to score an average of 214.3 points per game in their last 10 head to head meetings and 220.33 points per game in their last three encounters. These teams had more than enough rest and should be ready to play in this crucial game. Gordon Hayward’s presence should help these teams get over the total.

Prediction: Over 107

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