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The Boston Red Sox open their title-defense with a four-game set against the Seattle Mariners. Game 1 will be on Thursday March 28, 2018 at Safeco Field in Seattle.
Chris Sale will open the season for the Red Sox. The 29 year old from Florida Gulf Coast College started a total of 27 games last season and posted a record of 12-4 with an ERA of 2.11 and a WHIP of 0.86. The left-handed starter gave up a total of 39 runs on 102 hits with only 11 home runs and 34 walks while striking out a total of 37 batters in 158.0 total innings. Sale was 1-0 against Seattle last season, giving up just a total of four hits with no runs in seven innings pitched.
Let's do this.#TrueToTheBlue pic.twitter.com/Wow2iNQHlP
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) March 28, 2019
Red Sox
-180
Mariners
+170
Odds from betonline.ag as of 3/28/19
For the Mariners, it will be 27-year old Marco Gonzales who will open on top of the mound on Thursday opposite Chris Sale. The left hander Gonzales pitched last March 20, 2019 against the Oakland A’s and he got the win after six innings of work. Gonzales gave up four runs on seven hits with two homers, one walk while fanning four batters. Gonzales was 0-1 against the Red Sox last season, giving up five runs on 7 hits with one home run.
Who Wins?
The Red Sox are 4-0 in their last four games against the AL West, 5-0 in their last five Thursday games and 8-1 in their last nine games against an opponent with a winning record. Boston is also 4-0 in their last four road games against left-handed starting pitchers and 7-1 in their last eight games played on the road.
The Mariners are 4-1 in their last five Thursday games, 5-0 in their last five games overall but 2-8 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15 and 0-4 in their last four games after an off day. Seattle is also just 2-7 in Gonzales’ last nine starts and winless at 0-4 in his last four starts at home. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 5-0 in Sale’s last five starts on the road.
The Mariners won their first two games of the season in the Japan series but heading home, they have a daunting task of facing the defending World Series champions in their first set of the season. I expect the Red Sox to put in some runs early as Chris Sale will have a solid opening start. With the lead, Boston’s bullpen is going to take over and hand the Mariners their first loss of the season. Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Over/Under Pick
Aside from the moneyline odds, there are other bets to be made in this game. As of this writing, an over/under betting line has already been established at betonline.ag so let’s also make a pick for that line as well:
Red Sox
O 7 +100
Mariners
U 7 -120
Odds from betonline.ag as of 3/28/19
The over was 85-80-11 for the Red Sox last season and the total went over in 45 out of 89 road games played by Boston last season. The total has gone over in 13 out of the Red Sox last 19 games played. On the other hand, the under is 4-2 in Seattle’s last six games played, 13-6 in the last 19 head to head meetings between the Red Sox and Mariners and 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams in Seattle.
The trends point to under but Boston has averaged 5.7 runs in their last 10 games against Seattle, 7 runs in their last three meetings. These teams have combined to score 8.6 runs per game in their last 10 meetings as well. The Red Sox have a stacked lineup and were the top run-scoring team in the Majors last season. Chris Sale has nearly been automatic and that should bring concern in the run scoring here. However, good as a year Marco Gonzalez had last season, I think the Red Sox batters will get the better of him in this game. He’s gonna get tagged and the Red Sox should run away with this one. Prediction: Over 7
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