Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks 09/22/2021 MLB Odds and Prediction

The Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks continue their series at Chase Field on Wednesday. The Braves have won the first two games of this current set and will try to clinch this four-game set.

Atlanta is 79-70 on the season and they have built a three-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East team standings. The Braves have won three in a row heading to this contest and will try to pad their division lead with another victory here.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are just going through the motions of finishing the season. Arizona has long been ousted from playoff contention and they are joint-holders of the worst record in baseball at 48-103. The Diamondbacks have dropped seven out of their last eight games played overall and are just 28-45 at home this season.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have bounced back from a four-game losing streak with wins in their last three games played including two against these Diamondbacks. Atlanta has outscored Arizona 17-5 over the first two games of the series and they are looking to extend their lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the division standings.

Ian Anderson will open on top of the hill for Atlanta. The right-hander is 7-5 in 22 starts this season and has an ERA of 3.75. However, Anderson has posted an ERA of 6.59 in his last three starts. In his last appearance, Anderson gave up four earned runs, including three homers in 5 ⅔ innings of work against the San Francisco Giants.

Freddie Freeman has 30 home runs and 384 total bases while Austin Riley has 29 dingers with a batting average of .301 and an SLG of .521 this season. Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson have combined for 54 homers and 528 total bases while Adam Duvall and Jorge Sole have combined for 25 home runs since they were acquired at the trade deadline.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are tied with the Baltimore Orioles for the worst record in Major League Baseball this season. Arizona is 48-103 on the campaign and is on pace to surpass the club record for most losses in a season with 111. On Tuesday, the Diamondbacks went 0-9 with runners in scoring position and also committed three errors in the game to highlight their struggles this year.

Veteran Merrill Kelly will toe the rubber for the Diamondbacks in Game 3. Kelly is coming off back-to-back poor outings where he has given up nine runs in 9 ⅔ combined innings. In his last start, Kelly was drilled four earned runs in 4 ⅔ innings of work in a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He is 7-10 on the season with an ERA of 4.41 in 25 starts.

Only six batters have 10 or more home runs this season for Arizona while only three hitters have an OPS+ of 100 or higher. Ketel Marte has 12 home runs with a slash line of .327/.387/.542 while Pavin Smith and Josh Rojas have combined for 22 homers and 385 total bases.

Who Wins?

The Braves are 7-2 in their last 9 Game 3 of a series. Atlanta is 18-7 in their last 25 road games, 42-17 in their last 59 games as road favorites, and 6-0 in their last six games against an opponent with a winning percentage lower than .400. However, Atlanta is also 4-9 in their last 13 games against the National League West, and 5-10 in their last 15 Wednesday games.

The Diamondbacks are 1-7 SU in their last eight games played. Arizona is 0-7 in their last seven home games, 6-14 in their last 20 Wednesday games, 25-81 in their last 106 games as betting underdogs, 21-56 in their last 77 games against a right-handed starter, 21-68 in their last 89 games after suffering a loss, and 0-5 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning record.

Anderson has not completed six innings in any of his last six starts and he’s posted an ERA of 6.59 in his three September starts. This game also marks his first career road start at Chase Field which has a reputation for being hitter-friendly.

On the other side, Kelly has been good at home this season, posting an ERA of 3.38 in 12 home starts. Given this pitching match-up, I will take the plus money in this game and ride with the big underdogs.

Prediction: Diamondbacks +165

Over/Under Betting

The total has gone under in 12 out of the last 13 games played by Atlanta. The under is 8-2 in their last 10 games as road favorites, 10-2-2 in their last 14 games after scoring five or more runs in their previous game, 9-3-2 in their last 14 games after a straight-up win, and 11-3-2 in their last 16 games against the National League West. The over is 3-1-3 in their last seven games when the total is set between 9.0-10.5 and 13-5-2 in their last 20 Game 3 of a series.

The over is 12-4-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 17 games played. The over is also 4-1 in their last five games as home betting underdogs, 4-1-1 in their last six games against the National League East. The total has gone over in 9 out of their last 13 games played after a loss, and the over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

Head to head, the over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 games between these two teams in Arizona.

Anderson has conceded at least four earned runs in three out of his last five starts while Kelly is coming off poor starts against the Dodgers and Giants. The Diamondbacks have also scored at least six runs in two out of their last three games so they should be able to get runs against Anderson. Meanwhile, the Braves have scored 17 total runs in the first two games of the series.

Kelly is a better pitcher at home but Atlanta should score more than enough runs to help Arizona get the score over the total.

Prediction: Over 9 (-115)

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