Braves vs Phillies Odds and Pick (06/29)

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies play Game 2 of their current set at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday night.

Matt Olson homered twice as the Braves took the series opener 5-3 on Tuesday. Atlanta is currently 43-32 on the season and the defending World Series champions are second in the NL East team standings, just 4 games behind the New York Mets. The Braves are 6-4 in their last 10 games played

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s loss dropped the Phillies to 39-36 on the season and they are third behind the Braves in the divisional standings. Philadelphia is currently 8 games off the pace of the New York Mets and they are just an even 5-5 in their last 10 games played.

Atlanta and Philadelphia have played five times this season and the Braves lead the series three games to two.

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta opened the series with a 5-3 win on Tuesday, behind two home runs from Matt Olson. The Braves are within striking distance of the Mets as they are just four games back in the divisional standings. Atlanta lost its previous series 2-1 against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Dansby Swanson leads Atlanta with 43 RBIs while also hammering 13 home runs this season. Austin Riley also has 43 RBIs with a team-best 18 home runs. Riley has been hitting well against the Phillies with 7 hits in 16 at-bats with two RBIs.

Atlanta will be sending Kyle Wright to the mound for the 15th time this season. The 26-year-old right-hander has an 8-4 record with an ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 1.16. Wright has allowed a total of 32 runs on 72 hits in 85.0 innings pitched this season.

In his last start, Wright picked up the win as he threw for 5.1 innings while allowing four earned runs on 10 hits during a 7-6 win over the Giants. The Braves are 4-1 in his last five outings.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have dropped only one series this month and that was against the Rangers. Philadelphia won three out of four games against the Rangers last weekend before losing to the Braves on Tuesday. The Phillies caught a bad break with Bryce Harper injured and will need to find ways to win while he is on the mend.

Harper is the Phillies’ leader with 48 RBIs. He also has 15 home runs and leads the team with a batting average of .318. Meanwhile, left-fielder Kyle Schwarber leads Philly with 22 home runs while also producing 47 RBIs.

The Phillies will hand the ball to Ranger Suarez on Tuesday. The left-hander is 6-4 with an ERA of 4.23 and a WHIP of 1.48 in 14 total starts so far. Suarez has conceded 34 earned runs on 76 hits in 72.1 innings pitched this season.

The Venezuelan notched the win in his most recent start as he allowed two earned runs on seven hits in 7.1 innings pitched during a 6-2 win over the San Diego Padres. The Phillies are 3-4 in his last seven starts.

Braves vs Phillies Prediction

The Braves are 5-2 in the last seven games played between these two teams. Atlanta is, however, just 4-10 in their last 10 games played against the Phillies in Philadelphia.

The Braves are:

20-7 in their last 27 games played overall.
9-2 in their last 11 road games.
5-0 in their last 5 Wednesday games.
4-1 in their last 5 road games against a left-handed starter.
20-7 in their last 27 games on grass.
11-4 in their last 15 Game 2s of a series.
19-7 in their last 26 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
39-16 in their last 55 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
35-16 in their last 51 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
37-18 in their last 55 games versus a left-handed starter.
41-20 in their last 61 against National League East.
18-13 in their last 31 road games against the National League.
39-29 in their last 68 games against the National League.
31-15 in their last 46 games as betting favorites against the National League.
1-4 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Phillies are:

18-6 in their last 24 games played overall.
8-2 in their last 10 home games.
13-4 in their last 17 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
18-6 in their last 24 games on grass.
5-2 in their last 7 Wednesday games.
4-0 in their last 4 home games against a right-handed starter.
9-1 in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record.
12-2 in their last 14 games against a right-handed starter.
6-1 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
12-17 in their last 29 games against National League East.
4-6 in their last 10 home games against the National League East.
3-10 in their last 13 games as betting underdogs against the National League East.
32-30 in their last 62 games against the National League.
14-15 in their last 29 home games against the National League.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Braves

-134

Phillies

+124

Odds from BetOnline as of 06/29/2022

Wright is coming off a bad start but overall, he has been throwing well this season with an ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 1.16 in 85 innings pitched. On the road, Wright has produced an even better 3.10 ERA this season.

Suarez has pitched well this month and has an ERA of 3.33 for the month of June 2022. However, in a total of 72.1 innings pitched this season, Suarez has an ERA of 4.23 and a WHIP of 1.48. He gave up five runs in 4.1 innings against Atlanta last month and has allowed 10 runs in 18.1 innings pitched against the Braves in his entire career.

Atlanta has been one of the best teams in the majors as of late. They have won eight out of their last 10 games played on the road. Meanwhile, the Phillies have slowed down a bit and have won only three out of their last 8 games. I’m going with the team that is playing better baseball right now and has the advantage in the starting pitcher match-up.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Braves vs Phillies Over/Under Prediction:

The total has gone over in four out of the last five head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The under is 7-3 in their last 10 games played in Philadelphia.

Atlanta Braves over/under trends:

Under is 4-1 in the Braves’ last 5 games played overall.
Under is 4-1 in the Braves’ last 5 on grass.
Under is 4-1 in the Braves’ last 5 against a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1-1 in the Braves’ last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-0 in the Braves’ last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 5-2 in the Braves’ last 7 road games.
Over is 5-2 in the Braves’ last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 21-10 in the Braves’ last 31 games against a left-handed starter.
Over is 6-2-1 in the Braves’ last 9 Wednesday games.
Over is 6-2 in the Braves’ last 8 road games versus a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-0 in the Braves’ last 4 vs. National League East.
Over is 5-1 in the Braves’ last 6 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Philadelphia Phillies over/under trends:

Over is 8-3 in the Phillies’ last 11 home games.
Over is 5-2 in the Phillies’ last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 13-6 in the Phillies’ last 19 games against a right-handed starter.
Over is 11-4 in the Phillies’ last 15 versus a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in the Phillies’ last 5 home games against a right-handed starter.
Over is 11-5 in the Phillies’ last 16 games against the National League East.
Over is 35-25-2 in their last 62 games against the National League.
Over is 6-1 in the Phillies’ last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 4-0 in the Phillies’ last 4 home games versus a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in the Phillies’ last 5 Game 2s of a series.
Under is 14-13-2 in their last 29 games against the National League East.
Under is 5-2 in the Phillies’ last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

What are the Total Odds?

Over

8.5 (-110)

Under

8.5 (-110)

Odds from BetOnline as of 06/29/2022

The Braves rank 8th in baseball when it comes to total runs scored this season at 349. They are also the top team in the majors with a slugging percentage of .439. OVer their last seven games, Atlanta has scored a total of 35 runs. Atlanta will be facing a pitcher who has a home ERA of 5.10 this season.

Meanwhile, the Phillies rank 6th in runs scored this season with 352. They are 7th in slugging at .413. Philadelphia has scored 15 runs in their last three games played while allowing 12 during that span. They have scored a total of 23 runs in five games against Atlanta this season.

Against a starter with a WHIP of 1.3, the total has gone over in five out of the Braves’ last six games. These teams have combined to score an average of 8.7 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 8.33 runs per game in their last three games. With two modest pitchers on the mound on Wednesday, I don’t see how both teams won’t score more than 8 runs in this game.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies 06/29/2022 MLB Odds and Prediction

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Braves vs Phillies Prediction

Braves vs Phillies Over/Under Prediction:

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