Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres 04/19/2021 MLB Odds, Preview, and Pick

The Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres open their three-game series on Monday at Petco Park.

Both teams head to this matchup after losing their respective previous series. However, the Padres are coming off a win over the Dodgers on Sunday to avoid getting swept by their rivals. Milwaukee lost 6-5 to Pittsburgh on Sunday on a 10th inning RBI double.

San Diego won their most recent series in 2019 with the Padres winning three of four at this same venue.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off a close 6-5 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday. Colin Moran’s 10th inning RBI double ensured that the Brewers suffered their first series loss to the Pirates since 2018. The defeat also meant that the Brewers have lost a series for the first time since dropping their opening series of the season 1-2 to the Twins.

Daniel Vogelbach had two home runs for Milwaukee, his first two homers of the season. Avisail Garcia leads the Brewers with three homers this season and he is also Milwaukee’s best hitter at .269 on the season. Travis Shaw leads the team with 13 RBIs and also has three homers for Milwaukee.

Milwaukee has scored a total of 66 runs this season, tied for 15th in the league. However, they are only 28th in batting average at .209, 21st in on-base percentage at .301, and 28th in slugging percentage at .349. However, their pitching staff ranks 5th in ERA at 3.04, 3rd in WHIP at 1.07, and 1st in BAA at .194.

Opening on top of the mound for the Brewers on Monday will be Brandon Woodruff who will be making his fourth start of the year. Woodruff has an ERA of 2.12, WHIP 0.765, three walks, 19 strikeouts in 17 total innings pitched so far this season.

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres head to this series after salvaging Game 3 of their series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. After losing the first two games of the series by an aggregate score of 13-6, San Diego defeated Los Angeles 5-2 on Sunday behind Eric Hosmer who delivered the game-tying and go-ahead RBIs in the 7th and 8th innings.

With the win, the Padres moved to within 3.5 games of the Dodgers with their 10-7 record. Hosmer has been the main source of offense for San Diego as he leads the team with a batting average of .344, 3 home runs, and a total of 14 RBIs on the year. Will Myers also has 11 RBIs with three home runs while catcher Victor Caranti has 8 RBIs on the season.

San Diego ranks 15th in the league with a total of 64 runs scored this season. They are 10th in batting average at .245 and are 5th in on-base percentage at .342. The Padres’ slugging percentage of .384 ranks only 14th overall. Meanwhile, the San Diego pitching staff lead the league with an ERA of 2.45. They are also first in WHIP at 1.03 and 2nd in BAA at .202.

Getting the start on Monday will be Jose Musgrove who will be opening for the 4th time this campaign. Musgrove has a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 0.47 and a WHIP of 0.474. Musgrove has conceded two walks with 24 strikeouts in a total of 19 innings pitched.

Who Wins?

Milwaukee is 4-1 in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning record, 4-1 in their last five games against a right-handed starter, 4-1 in their last five road games, and 5-2 in their last seven games overall. Head to head, Milwaukee is 6-3 in their last nine road games in San Diego. However, the Brewers are 0-5 in their last five games against the NL West, and 2-6 in their last 8 games 1 of a series.

San Diego is 8-1 in their last nine Monday games, 5-2 in their last seven games as favorites, 26-10 in their last 36 games as home favorites, 5-2 in their last seven games as betting favorites, and 5-2 in their last seven games against a right-handed starter. The Padres are 18-8 in their last 26 games 1 of a series

Musgrove has been fantastic in his first three starts and he has thrown the first no-hitter of the season against the Rangers. San Diego’s bats have not made much noise yet this season but sooner or later, they are going to get going.

No matter how I look at it, San Diego has the better team. With both pitchers having great starts, it’s going to be up to the offense to decide the game. Again, I go back to Milwaukee losing a key contributor in Yelich which gives San Diego the advantage.

Prediction: San Diego Padres -138

Over/Under Odds

The total has gone under in 12 out of the last 14 games played by the Brewers. Milwaukee has seen the under go 11-1 in their last dozen games against the NL West. The under is also 21-6-3 in their last 30 games against a right-handed starter, 16-5-1 against an opponent with a winning record, 6-2 in their last eight games as underdogs, and 9-3-1 in their last 13 games as the betting underdog. The under is also 5-2 in their last seven games 1 of a series.

The total has gone under in seven out of the last eight home games played by San Diego. The under is also 4-0 in their last four games against a right-handed starter, 6-0 in their last six games as home favorites, and 6-1 in their last eight games when the total is set between 7.0 to 8.5. The total has also gone under in four out of the Padres’ last five games against a starter with a WHIP of lower than 1.15, and 5-1 in their last six home games against a right-handed starter.

These two teams rank in the Top 4 in run prevention with the 2nd ranked Brewers allowing just an average of 3.29 runs per game and the Padres, ranked 4th in that department, giving up only 3.38 runs per outing. Both teams are also averaging just over 4 runs per game this season and with the way these pitchers have been throwing the ball this season, this game should end up falling short of the total.

Prediction: Under 7

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