Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers 10/17/22 NFL Odds and Prediction

The Denver Broncos travel to Hollywood to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in this week’s edition of Monday Night Football at SoFi Stadium.

Denver is looking for its first road win after dropping its first two assignments away from home. The Broncos are 2-3 SU on the season and they are in 3rd place in the AFC West Division. After dropping their season opener against the Seahawks, the Broncos won back-to-back games against the Texans and 49ers but have since dropped consecutive games to the Raiders and Colts.

The Chargers are 3-2 SU on the season and they are in 2nd place in the AFC West Division. A win by Los Angeles gives them a share of the division lead with the 4-2 SU Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers beat the Raiders in Week 1 but then suffered consecutive losses to the Chiefs and Jaguars. They have, however, won two in a row versus the Texans and Browns.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos had several opportunities to beat the Chargers last week but blew them one after the other before losing in overtime. The defeat sent them to 2-3 SU on the year and they will be looking to get to the .500 mark in this game and keep in pace with the AFC West leaders.

Against the Colts, the Broncos led 9-6 late in the 4th quarter and were in chip shot from field goal range when Wilson threw an INT. Indianapolis took advantage and drove the ball to field goal range before tying up the game with 5 seconds left in regulation. The game went to OT where they gave up a field goal and where Wilson threw an int on 4th and 1 from the Colts’ five-yard line.

Wilson has thrown for 1,254 yards but only has four TDs and one INT. Javonte Williams has 204 rushing yards on 47 rushes but is out for the year with an ACL injury. Melvin Gordon has 193 rushing yards on 52 carries with one TD. Cortland Sutton has caught 417 yards on 29 catches with one score.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers survived a pair of questionable decisions by their coaching staff to pick up their second consecutive win. The Chargers trailed 14-0 to open the game but rallied to take a 17-14 lead but trailed 28-27 after three quarters before kicking the game-winning FG with 9:29 on the clock.

Los Angeles forced a pick and then ate up over six minutes of the clock to stall the Browns. However, the Chargers turned the ball over with over a minute left and gave the Browns a chance to win the game. But they forced Cleveland to kick from 54-yards out and escaped with a 30-28 win when the FG missed. The Chargers outgained the Brown 465 to 443 yards in that game.

Justin Herbert has thrown for 1,478 passing yards with 10 TDs and 2 INTs. Austin Ekeler has rushed 61 times for 313 yards with three TDs while Joshua Kelley has 23 carries and 104 rushing yards with one TD. Ekeler also has 214 receiving yards on 31 catches with 3 scores.

Who Wins?

The Broncos are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games played against the Chargers. Denver is also 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the L.A. Chargers.

Denver Broncos SU trends:

• The Broncos are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games played.
• The Broncos are 0-3 SU in their last 3 games played on the road.
• The Broncos are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games played in October.
• The Broncos are 0-5 SU in their last five games against the AFC West Division.

Los Angeles Chargers SU trends:

• The Chargers are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Chargers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played against the AFC.
• The Chargers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 October games.
• The Chargers are 1-6 SU in their last 7 Monday games.

Russell Wilson has not been the savior of Denver that he was touted to be. The Broncos offense was supposed to get better with him but instead, it has even looked worse. Wilson has been playing with a partially torn lat but it hasn’t been only the injury that has caused the offense to struggle.

During last week’s game against the Colts, Wilson failed to score twice inside the 15-yard line, and once threw an interception with 2:13 left in regulation and not converting on a fourth-and-one at the Colts’ five-yard line on a pass to Courtland Sutton. With Javonte Williams out for the season with an ACL injury, running the ball will be a challenge. Williams’ absence will be more pressure on Wilson to deliver.

Meanwhile, the Chargers were lucky to escape with a victory in Ohio last week as they edged the Cleveland Browns 30-28. Faced with 4th and 1 at their own 46-yard line with just over one minute left in the game, the Chargers went for the first down instead of punting and failed to convert. Fortunately for them, the Browns failed to kick the game-winning field goal from 54 yards out a minute later and the Chargers won.

Los Angeles entered last week as the worst rushing team in the NFL at just 64.5 rushing yards per game. However, Austin Ekeler rushed for a career-high 173 yards with two touchdowns ( one receiving ) and the Chargers had a total of 238 rushing yards, their most in a game since 2018. Justin Herbert also threw for 228 yards and a TD after working his way through a rib cartilage injury. So Despite nearly losing to the Browns, the Chargers head to this home game feeling good about themselves.

Nathaniel Hackett needs a better plan on offense if he wants his team to have a chance to win this game. Denver is one of the most underperforming offenses in the NFL right now and Hackett and Wilson were supposed to solve their offensive woes. With their running attack compromised, Wilson will have to carry an even bigger load. That could prove to be tougher given he is playing with an injury.

With the Chargers getting their running game going in the last couple of weeks, the team should be able to get going offensively, with some pressure taken off Justin Herbert. Denver has displayed very good defense this season. But they are susceptible to the running game that the Chargers have shown in recent weeks. Give me the Chargers.

Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers

Broncos vs Chargers ATS Prediction

The Broncos are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Chargers. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

Denver Broncos ATS trends:

• The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The Broncos are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on field turf.
• The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC West.
• The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
• The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
• The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
• The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Los Angeles Chargers ATS trends:

• The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Chargers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October.
• The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
• The Chargers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC West.
• The Chargers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Chargers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

The Chargers have struggled on defense this season but they should catch a break against the Broncos. Denver has been one of the worst scoring teams in the NFL this season and their offense looks out of sync. The Broncos are scoring an average of fewer than 20 points per game this season and Russell Wilson is off to a slow start while dealing with a shoulder injury. Making things worse is the season-ending injury suffered by Javonte Williams which will limit their rushing attack and force Wilson to do more while dealing with his injury.

Los Angeles is the 2nd best passing team in the NFL and their rushing attack has picked up its pace in the last couple of weeks. With Los Angeles having the better offensive performance this season, they should be able to beat the Broncos and cover the betting spread.

Prediction: Chargers -4.5

Broncos vs Chargers Predictions

The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played between these two teams. The under s 8-1 in their last 9 meetings in Los Angeles.

Denver Broncos over/under trends:

• Under is 4-1 in the Broncos’ last 5 games overall.
• Under is 8-3 in the Broncos’ last 11 road games.
• Under is 5-0 in the Broncos’ last 5 Monday games.
• Under is 5-0 in the Broncos’ last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 5-1 in the Broncos’ last 6 games in Week 6.
• Under is 5-1 in the Broncos’ last 6 games on field turf.
• Under is 19-7-1 in the Broncos’ last 27 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Under is 7-3 in the Broncos’ last 10 games following an ATS loss.
• Under is 9-4 in the Broncos’ last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 34-16-1 in the Broncos’ last 51 vs. AFC.
• Over is 4-1 in the Broncos’ last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Los Angeles Chargers over/under trends

• Over is 9-2 in the Chargers’ last 11 games overall.
• Over is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last 6 home games.
• Over is 6-0 in the Chargers’ last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Over is 4-0 in the Chargers’ last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 8-1 in the Chargers’ last 9 games on field turf.
• Over is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last 6 games following an ATS win.
• Under is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last 6 games in Week 6.
• Over is 4-1 in the Chargers’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• Over is 4-1 in the Chargers’ last 5 games in October.
• Over is 8-2 in the Chargers’ last 10 vs. AFC.
• Under is 6-2 in the Chargers’ last 8 Monday games.
• Under is 19-7 in the Chargers’ last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2 in the Chargers’ last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 18-8 in the Chargers’ last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Denver is scoring just 15 points per game this season and 19 points away from home this campaign. They have averaged just 19.5 points per game in their last three games played against the Chargers and will be forced to lean on the passing game of an injured Russell Wilson.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are putting up 24.4 points per game this season but only 17 points per game at Mile High. Los Angeles has seen its rushing attack flourish in the last couple of weeks and they could go more to Ekeler to take the pressure off Herbert.

Denver may be a struggling offensive team but their defense has been on point this year. Los Angeles hasn’t been a very good defensive team but given Denver’s offensive woes, that might not be needed here. This should be a low-scoring game between these two teams.

Prediction: Under 45.5

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