Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks 09/12/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

The NFL schedule likes drama. What more dramatic way to end Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season than having Russell Wilson make his Broncos debut against the team that traded him to Denver last season?

Denver finished the 2021 campaign with a 7-10 record and missed the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season since Peyton Manning retired. Quarterback has always been pointed to as the reason for Denver’s inability to make the playoffs but they can’t use that excuse now if at all because they have a former MVP playing under center in Russell Wilson whom they acquired from, well, the team they are playing on Monday night.

Seattle also finished 7-10 last season which was their worst record since going 7-9 in 2011. The Seahawks traded their starting QB to the Denver Broncos during the offseason and did not draft a QB n the 2022 NFL Draft. Monday’s starter will be Wilson’s back-up in Seattle Geno Smith. Smith has not been a regular starter since the 2013014 seasons and gets his opportunity to prove himself all over again.

These teams have played 54 times before and the Broncos lead the series 34-19. Their most recent matchup was way back in 2018 with Denver winning 27-24 at home.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos have experimented with too many quarterbacks since Peyton Manning retired in 2015. Last season, they had Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock share the spotlight. Now Denver has its best QB since Manning in Russell Wilson. Wilson threw for 3,113 passing yards with 25 TDs and 6 INTs last season for Seattle.

Melvin Gordon rushed for 918 yards on 203 carries with 8 TDs last season. Javonte Williams also rushed for 903 yards with four scores. Cortland Sutton is the team’s top receiver with 58 catches for 776 yards and two scores. Jerry Jeudy had 38 catches for 467 receiving yards while tight end Albert Okwuegbunam had 33 catches for 330 receiving yards.

Denver was 19th in passing offense at 211.1 yards per game and 13th in rushing offense at 113.1 yards per contest. They were 25th in scoring offense at 19.7 points per game and were third in scoring defense at 18.9 points per game allowed.

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2017. With a 7-10 mark, they had their worst regular season since going 7-9 in 2011. The Seahawks did not draft a QB to replace Russell Wilson and will instead have Wilson’s backup in Geno Smith as their starter this year over Drew Lock, the man they acquired for Wilson.

Smith completed 65 of 92 passes for 702 passing yards with 5 touchdowns and one interception while getting sacked five times. For records’ sake, Drew Lock was 67-111 for a total of 787 passing yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs last season. Rashaad Penny rushed for 749 yards on 119 carries with six scores. Rookie Kenneth Walker II will be a factor in their rushing attack once he’s healthy. DK Metcalf led the team with 75 catches for 967 receiving yards and 12 TDs. Tyler Lockett caught 73 passes for 1,173 receiving yards with 8 TDs.

Seattle averaged 201.9 passing yards last season, 23rd in the NFL. They were 11th in rushing at 122 rushing yards per game. The Seahawks were 16th in scoring offense at 23.3 points per game scored. They were also 11th in scoring defense at only 21.5 points per game allowed last season.

Broncos vs Seahawks Prediction

The Broncos are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games played against the Seahawks. Denver is also 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played in Seattle.

Denver Broncos SU trends:

• The Broncos are 1-5 SU in their last six games played.

• The Broncos are 1-5 SU in their last six games played on the road.

• The Broncos are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games played in September.

Seattle Seahawks SU trends:

• The Seahawks are 4-2 SU in their last six 6 games played.

• The Seahawks are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games played at home.

• The Seahawks are 9-3 SU in their last 12 September games.

Many said that the Denver Broncos were a good quarterback away from being a playoff team last season. After acquiring Russell Wilson during the offseason, it will be interesting to see whether the previous statement is correct.

There are no questioning Wilson’s abilities and despite his advancing age, he is still one of the best QBs in the NFL. Wilson played for a Seattle team that struggled on both offense and defense. He now plays for a Denver unit that has a very good defense and plenty of excellent skill players. Special mention goes out to Courtland Sutton who had 58 catches and 776 receiving yards last season with Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock playing under center. Imagine what he can do with Russell Wilson throwing him the football.

By trading Wilson, the Seahawks signaled a rebuild. Pete Carroll is the oldest coach in the NFL and he will be tasked to put together a winning team. The Seahawks did not draft a QB in the 2022 NFL Draft and had to choose between last year’s backup Geno Smith and the Wilson by-product Drew Lock. Smith ended up getting the starting job and he was 1-2 last year when Wilson got hurt. Smith has never been a full-time starter since 2013-14 when he was with the Jets.

Running back Rashaad Penny led all players with 671 rushing yards over the final five games of the previous season which was 208 yards more than the next best rusher. Penny has been hobbled by injuries throughout his career but finished last season with 749 rushing yards. He will be joined by rookie Kenneth Walker who ranked second in the nation last year in rushing yards. Walker, however, won’t be playing on Monday due to injury.

Meanwhile, Seattle won four of six both SU and ATS to finish the 2021 campaign so they will be entering this game with their confidence high. However, Wilson will be playing for the opposite team and that to me will be the difference in this game. Many are predicting that the Seahawks will finish at the bottom of the league this season and that they could end up with the top pick in the next draft. However, Carroll says he isn’t counting out his team yet.

Denver ended last season with a four-game losing skid. They have scored 14 or fewer points or less in their last seven losses, going 1-6 ATS during that stretch. But they have Wilson now, and that should make all the difference.

Prediction: Denver Broncos

Broncos vs Seahawks ATS Prediction

The Broncos are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Seahawks. Denver is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played in Seattle.

Denver Broncos ATS trends:

• The Broncos are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played.

• The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on the road.

• The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC.

• The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played as betting favorites.

• The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played as road favorites.

• The Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six Monday games.

• The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six September games.

• The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on field turf.

• The Broncos are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven Week 1 game.

Seattle Seahawks ATS trends:

• The Seahawks are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played overall.

• The Seahawks are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played at home.

• The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games as betting underdogs.

• The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played against the AFC.

• The Seahawks are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games played as betting underdogs.

• The Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven September games.

Seattle had plenty of problems last season but the quarterback was not one of them. They ended up giving up their QB and did not draft a signal caller in the 2022 NFL Draft, electing to choose between Geno Smith and Drew Lock.

Without an established @QB, the Seahawks are likely to run the football more often here. But while that’s a good idea, it’s not going to work against a Denver defense that was Top 3 in stopping the run last season. The Broncos made improvements to their defensive line and linebacking corps. Scoring won’t be easy for Seattle.

The Seahawks struggled on defense and won’t get any better without Bobby Wagner and some other personnel. They were one of the worst teams in the league against the pass. They will be playing versus one of the top QBs in the league who will have better weapons around him. Look for Wilson to air it out often.

There are plenty of reasons to believe that Wilson is going to have a big game on Monday. First, he got himself a brand new contract from his new team. Second, he is raring to prove to his former team that he still has plenty left in the gas tank. Considering that he will be going up against his former backup, there’s no way he will want to get outplayed. Sure, all these mean plenty of pressure on Russ to deliver. But these are the games that Wilson is built for. I expect a very dedicated effort from both sides but the talent level on Denver and the lack thereof on the other end will decide this game. I think Russell leads Denver to a double-digit win here.

Prediction: Denver Broncos -6.5

Broncos vs Seahawks Over/Under 

The total has gone over in four out of the last five head-to-head meetings between the Broncos and Seahawks. The under is 6-4 in the last 10 games played between these two teams in Seattle.

Denver Broncos over/under trends:

• The under is 8-3 in the Broncos’ last 11 games played overall.

• The under is 4-1 in the Broncos’ last five games played on the road.

• The under is 37-17-1 in the Broncos’ last 55 games as betting favorites.

• The under is 4-1 in the Broncos’ last five games played on field turf.

• The under is 4-0 in the Broncos’ last four Monday games.

• The under is 4-0 in the Broncos’ last four September games.

• The over is 11-5 in the Broncos’ last 16 games against the NFC West Division.

Seattle Seahawks over/under trends:

• The over is 5-1 in the Seahawks’ last six games played overall.

• The over is 4-1 in the Seahawks’ last five games played on field turf.

• The over is 7-3-1 in the Seahawks’ last 11 games played as home underdogs.

• The over is 7-3 in the Seahawks’ last 10 games against the AFC West.

• The under is 7-2 in the Seahawks’ last 9 games as betting underdogs.

• The under is 10-4 in the Seahawks’ last 14 Monday games.

The under went 12-5 in the Broncos’ 17 games. That included six of their eight road games played and four out of five interconference games in their schedule. Meanwhile, the Seahawks saw the total go under in 11 out of their 17. The over was 5-1 in their last six games played but three of those were against the Bears, Lions, and Texans. The Seahawks split their 8 home games in relation to the total.

Given that the Seahawks don’t have an established starting quarterback, it’s going to be hard to handicap the team until we’ve seen them play a couple of games or so with Smith as a starter. So while I expect the Denver offense to be just fine, I can’t say the same for the Seahawks. In that regard, it’s probably best to err on the side of caution. I’m going with the under for this game.

Prediction: Under 41.5

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