Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers 12/25/2021 NFL Odds and Prediction

The Cleveland Browns travel to Lambeau Field with the hopes of keeping their postseason aspirations alive. The Browns have alternated between a loss and win in their last nine games and last week, they were ravaged by COVID-19 related absences and lost a heartbreaking 14-16 contest to the Raiders.

Meanwhile, the Packers are fresh from clinching the NFC North Division for the third straight season with a 31-30 win over the Baltimore Ravens last week. Green Bay is now the top seed in the NFC and has the best record in the entire league. However, with the team standings very close, the Packers cannot rest on their laurels this week and have to keep their foot on the gas pedal.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns need a win to stay alive in the playoff race. With QB Baker Mayfield expected to return, Cleveland hopes to pull off the upset against the Packers. In their last game, the Browns went scoreless in the first half before scoring 14 in the second half and nearly pulling off the win. Cleveland did not commit a turnover but only had 13 first down conversions. They were also outgained by the Raiders 328 to 236 yards.

Cleveland is 26th in the league in passing offense at 201.5 yards per game. They are the 4th best rushing team in the NFL at 139.6 yards per game. The Browns are 19th in scoring at 20.9 points per game scored. They have the 14th ranked scoring defense in the league at 21.8 points per game allowed.

Green Bay Packers

With the Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Cowboys breathing heavily behind their back, the Packers look to continue their winning ways and stay on top of the NFC. Green Bay has surged to the top of the NFL standings behind another MVP-caliber season from Aaron Rodgers who has thrown 31 touchdown passes against only five interceptions this season. With Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon taking care of the ground offensive, the Packers have been humming as of late with three straight wins.

Green Bay is 9th in the league in passing offense at 253.6 yards per game. They are 21st in rushing offense at 106.8 yards per contest. The Packers are the 13th best scoring team in the NFL at 25.6 points per game while they have the league’s 10th best scoring defense at 21.6 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

Cleveland is 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played. The Browns are 1-3 SU in their last four games played on the road, and 7-1 SU in their last eight games played against the NFC. Green Bay is 11-2 SU in their last 13 games played. The Packers are 4-0 SU in their last four games played at home, 4-1 SU in their last five games against the AFC, and 4-1 SU in their last five games against the AFC North.

The Packers are 5-1 SU in their last six games played against the Browns.

Monday’s last-second loss to the Raiders put the Browns at the bottom of the AFC North and they don’t have much time to prepare for the Packers whom they play on Christmas Day. Cleveland was without 22 players including Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Jadeveon Clowney, and head coach Kevin Stefanski last week. Meanwhile, Myles Garrett played through a groin injury and Takk McKinley suffered a suspected Achilles injury.

The Browns may be 12th in the conference standings right now but they are just one game behind the Bengals and hold several tie-breakers in case they make it to the top again. Green Bay though is the team that’s playing better and is the best team in the NFL right now with the league’s best record and the league’s best player in Aaron Rodgers.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers

Other Bets to Make

The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. Cleveland is 3-6 ATS in their last nine December games, 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 games against an opponent with a winning record, 19-46-1 ATS in their last 66 games after a straight-up loss, 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win, 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game, and 0-4 ATS in their last four Week 16 games played.

The Packers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in their last six games played at home, 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home favorites, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win, 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 16 games, 7-2 in their last nine games as betting favorites, 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games played on grass, 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after an ATS loss, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Head to head, the Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Browns. The betting favorite is also 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

The Green Bay offense is clicking right now and it’s hard to think of any team that can stop them from scoring right now, much more the Browns. The Cleveland offense has scored 17 points or less in four out of their last five games played and in seven out of their last nine overall. With the Cleveland pass rush affected by the COVID-19 situation, expect Rodgers to have another big night as he tries to solidify his MVP claim. And oh, the Packers are the best ATS team in the league this season.

Prediction: Packers -7.5

The total has gone under in 17 out of the Browns’ last 21 Week 16 games. The under is 4-1 in their last five games against the NFC North Division, 4-1 in their last five games played on grass, 19-7 in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 250 yards in their previous game, 44-18-3 in their last 65 December games, and 19-9 in their last 28 games after passing for 150 or fewer yards in their previous game.

The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played by the Packers. The under is 6-2 in their last eight games played on grass, 5-2 in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 yards of total offense in their previous game, 6-2 in their last eight home games after an ATS loss, and 7-3 in their last 10 December games.

Head to head, the total has gone under in two out of the last three meetings between these two teams.

The Packers should have their way on offense with the Browns’ injury woes. However, with the Cleveland offense not producing enough, the Packers won’t need to flex its entire offensive arsenal here.

Green Bay just clinched their division last week. They may not be as hungry as they were before clinching it. Still, they will be more than good enough to win this game against a struggling Browns team that didn’t have enough time to prepare for this matchup.

Prediction: Under 45.5

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