Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers 01/10/2021 AFC Wild Card Game Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Cleveland Browns in the AFC Wild Card game on January 10, 2021, at Heinz Field.

Pittsburgh opened the season with 11 straight wins but they struggled with four losses in their last five outings. In their last game, the Steelers rested their starters and allowed the Browns to win the game and head to the playoffs. Meanwhile, Cleveland is basking on its first playoff appearance in 18 years. The Browns though will have to make do without head coach Kevin Stefanski and several players and coaches who are out due to COVID-19 protocols.

The Browns beat the Steelers last week 24-22 last January 3rd in the final regular season game for these teams. However, Pittsburgh rested its key players in that game and they will be back to full strength in this wild card contest.

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns finished the regular season with an 11-5 record yet they needed to win their final regular season game just to book a ticket to the postseason. However, that win enabled them to end the NFL’s longest current playoff drought and head to the playoffs for the first time since 2002.

Baker Mayfield threw for 3,563 yards with 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He has looked good in spots but wasn’t the sharpest in some key games like the one last week. Mayfield will have to be consistent here if they want to win. Nick Chubb has rushed for 1,067 yards with 12 touchdowns on 190 rush attempts. He is coming off a 108-yard, one-touchdown game against the same team.

The Browns are 24th in passing offense with 221.2 yards per game but are 3rd in passing yards at 148.4 per game. Cleveland is 14th in the league in scoring at 25.4 points per game and 12th in scoring defense at 26.2 points per game.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers were the last team to lose a game this season. But after a torrid 11-0 start, they finished the season with a 1-4 record including two losses to sub .500 teams. Defense was the key to the Steelers’ success as they ranked third in the league in scoring defense at 19.5 points per game. If they want to win it all this season, their defense must keep its focus.

Ben Roethlisberger thew for 3,803 yards with 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Diontae Johnson led the Steelers’ receiving corps with 923 yards and seven touchdowns on 88 catches. James Conner has 721 yards and six scores on 169 carries. Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster each have caught nine touchdown passes for the Steelers.

Pittsburgh ranks 15th in passing yards with 250.2 per game. They are last in the NFL in rushing with an average of 84.4 yards per contest. The Steelers rank 12th in scoring at 26.0 points per game and they have the league’s third-best scoring defense at 19.5 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

Cleveland is 6-2 SU in their last eight games played. The Browns are 4-1 SU in their last five games played on the road. Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in their last five games played. The Steelers are 7-1 SU in their last eight games played at home. Head to head, the Steelers are 7-2-1 SU in their last 10 games played. Pittsburgh is 10-0 in their last 10 games played against Cleveland at Heinz Field.

Cleveland ranked 14th in the NFL in scoring at 25.5 points per game but they allowed opponents to score an average of 26.2 points per game. The Browns have a point differential of -11, the lowest among the playoff teams.

The Steelers struggled with an 0-3 record in December and scored an average of 16.3 points per game in losses to Washington, Buffalo, and Cincinnati. They played better in their last two games but still did not look like the last team to lose a game this season. They allow only 19.5 points per game, third-best in the league. Ben Roethlisberger looked good during their game against the Colts, and he looks to carry the momentum here.

Cleveland is on an all-time high right now. However, it will be hard for them to keep the momentum going with several key names absent here due to COVID-19. Pittsburgh’s B-team nearly beat the Browns last week. Look for the A-team to carry them to victory in this matchup.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers

Other Bets To Make

The Browns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played. Cleveland is 3-5 ATS in their last eight games played on the road, and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games played against the AFC. The Steelers are 2-4 ATS in their last six games played. Pittsburgh is 5-3 ATS in eight home games played this year, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against the AFC, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games. Head to head, the Steelers are 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Browns.

The Steelers’ late-season struggles are well documented. But don’t forget that the Browns lost to the Jets in Week 16 and struggled to beat Pittsburgh’s B-Team in their season finale. It doesn’t help that the Browns won’t be without head coach Stefanski and pro bowl offensive lineman Bitonio. Cleveland is just 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games against the AFC North and 8-26-2 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh should get the job done here.

Prediction: Steelers

The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Browns. Cleveland has seen the total go over in four out of their last five games played against the AFC North. The over is 8-7-1 in Pittsburgh’s 16 games played this season. The total has gone over in five out of the last eight games played by the Steelers. The over is 4-1 in their last five games against the AFC North, and 4-2 in their last six January games.

Pittsburgh will put the pressure on Mayfield, forcing Cleveland to go to Chubb and Hunt to move the football. These teams played two times this season and neither of those games reached a total of 47 points. Neither have they hit 47 in any of their last five meetings. The Steelers pride themselves on their defense and they will try to shut down the Browns. Look for this to be a defensive game which will lead to the score missing the total.

Prediction: Under 47

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