Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys 09/11/2022 NFL Preview and Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Dallas Cowboys at the AT&T Stadium on Sunday night in Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season.

Tampa Bay went 13-4 last season but failed to defend their Super Bowl crown after losing to the eventual champions Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round. Meanwhile, Dallas went 12-5 last year and wound up getting ousted in the Wild Card round by the San Francisco 49ers who went all the way to the AFC title game.

These two teams also played each other in the opening game of the 2021 NFL season but at the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay. The Bucs won that game 31-29 on a last-second field goal after Tom Brady drove the Bucs to field goal range.

Dallas has beaten Tampa Bay seven times in their last 10 head-to-head meetings but these teams have played only once with Tom Brady as the Bucs’ QB and that was last season’s meeting which the Bucs won.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went from being longshots to win Super Bowl LVII to the second favorite after Tom Brady decided to end his retirement. Brady had announced his retirement after the Bucs lost to the Rams in last season’s Divisional Round. However, less than two months later, Brady said he was coming back. Rob Gronkowski however, won’t be coming back despite buddy Brady’s decision to un-retire.

The Bucs won a franchise-best 14 games last season and were NFC South Division champions for the first time since 2007. But after beating the Eagles in the Wild Card round, they were narrowly beaten by the Rams in the second round. Tampa Bay went 0-3 in the preseason, losing to the Dolphins, Titans, and Colts.

Tampa Bay scored 30.1 points per game last season and with the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette returning plus the addition of Julio Jones, Tom Brady is expected to lead another high-powered offense to the season. The offensive line however lost Alex Cappa in free agency while center Ryan Jensen is on the injured reserve to begin the season.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys had lofty expectations with the return of Dak Prescott from a season-ending injury in 2020. The Cowboys had a good run during the regular season but their hopes of returning to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1995-96 season went down the drain after they lost to the 49ers in the Wild Card round.

Dallas went 12-5 last season and they not only delivered their first winning season since 2018 but they also won the NFC East Division. The Cowboys began the 2022 preseason with a loss to the Denver Broncos but they finished strong with wins over the Chargers and Seahawks in their last two.

They were the top-scoring team in the league last season at 31.2 points per game but after their wild-card loss, there were questions on how their offensive line would hold against the league’s top defenses. Dak Prescott is one of the best QBs in the league but the issue will be if the Cowboys can protect him. The team lost Amari Cooper to free agency but still have CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott to help Dak carry the offensive load. Dallas has an excellent defense led by Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs.

Buccaneers vs Cowboys Betting Prediction

Tampa Bay is 2-7 U in their last nine games played against Dallas. The Buccaneers are 0-5 SU in their last five road games against the Cowboys.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers SU trends:

• The Buccaneers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played.

• The Buccaneers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 road games played.

Dallas Cowboys SU trends:

• The Cowboys are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played.

• The Cowboys are 2-4 SU in their last six Week 1 games.

The Buccaneers went from longshots to betting favorites in the Super Bowl LVII odds boards after Tom Brady unretired shortly after announcing he was walking away from the game. The GOAT is now 45 years old and there is no telling when Father Time will catch up with him. If last season, however, was any indication, that could be a couple or more seasons from now.

Brady led the NFL in completions, attempts, passing yards, and touchdowns in 2021. He also finished second behind Aaron Rodgers in the MVP voting. After losing to the Rams in the playoffs, look for Brady to begin his 2022 campaign with a strong performance. But he will have to do so without his favorite target after Rob Gronkowski retired at the end of last season.

Brady however will have new targets in Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Kyle Rudolph. Those three are in addition to the returning Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette. Tampa Bay will be without two starters on their offensive line due to injury.

Meanwhile, a lot has changed in the Dallas offense with Amari Cooper’s departure and the injury to Michael Gallup. That means that the pressure will be on Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott to deliver for the Cowboys. Running back Tony Pollard could also be given an extra load given their roster losses.

The Cowboys’ defense, however, will be returning 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year Micah Parsons who had 13 sacks, and CB Trevon Digg who has 11 interceptions last season. The defense was a huge part of Dallas’ success last season with 9 out of their last 12 games hitting the UNDER.

You can make a case for both sides here. Tampa Bay has a good run defense that could force Prescott to throw to his thin receiving corps. However, the Cowboys have the defensive players to pressure Brady and limit the Bucs’ scoring offense. I know there are a lot of doubts about Dallas’ offense but don’t forget Tom Brady is 45. There’s also some uncertainty surrounding the Bucs’ offense. Having said those, I’ll take the plus money here and go with the underdogs.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys

Buccaneers vs Cowboys ATS Prediction

The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Cowboys. The road team is also 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these two teams. However, the underdog is also 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ATS trends:

• The Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

• The Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

• The Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.

• The Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1.

• The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.

• The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 versus the NFC conference.

• The Buccaneers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 Week 1 games.

Dallas Cowboys ATS trends:

• The Cowboys are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall.

• The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.

• The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

• The Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 versus the NFC conference.

• The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC South Division.

• The Cowboys are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on field turf.

Both teams head to this game with question marks. For the Bucs, it’s how Tom Brady will fare at the age of 45. For the Cowboys, it’s how their offense will look without Amari Cooper gon and Michael Gallup hurt. There is news that Gallup could play on Sunday but even if he does, we don’t know if he will be 100%.

Despite their question marks, the Dallas offense still looks good with Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and CeeDee Lamb leading the way. With a defense led by Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence, and Trevon Diggs able to provide pressure on Tom Brady, look for the Cowboys to keep this game close and pull it off late at their stadium. I’ll take the plus points just in case.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys +2.5

Buccaneers vs Cowboys Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in five out of the last six head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The under is also 4-0 in their last four games played in Dallas.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over/under trends:

• Over is 7-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 8 games in September.

• Over is 5-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 6 games in Week 1.

• Over is 4-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 5 games on field turf.

• Under is 6-2 in the Buccaneers’ last 8 versus the NFC.

• Under is 4-1 in the Buccaneers’ last five games against the NFC East Division.

Dallas Cowboys over/under trends:

• Over is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games in September.

• Over is 5-2 in the Cowboys’ last 7 games as a home underdog.

• Over is 13-6 in the Cowboys’ last 19 home games.

• Over is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last five September games.

• Under is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games on field turf.

• Under is 7-2 in the Cowboys’ last 9 vs. NFC.

• Under is 9-3 in the Cowboys’ last 12 games overall.

These teams have combined to score an average of 38.2 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, but 51.0 points per game in their most recent three encounters.

The total is high but these are two of the most prolific quarterbacks we saw last season. Brady also has new weapons to throw to perhaps compensate for the retirement of Gronkowski. Meanwhile, Prescott’s receiving corps is thin right now but he still has other options to throw to. I expect a back-and-forth game, much like last season’s kickoff game which the Bucs won in the end game. This time around, I like the Cowboys to emerge victorious in a high-scoring game where both teams could end up scoring in their 30s.

Prediction: Over 52

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