Buccaneers vs Packers 01/24/2021 NFC Championship Game Odds and Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers on Sunday for the NFC title and the right to represent the conference in Super Bowl LV.

The Bucs defeated Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints last weekend to book a trip to the NFC title game. The Tampa Bay defense forced the Saints to four turnovers en route to a 30-20 win. Meanwhile, the Packers made easy work of the Los Angeles Rams and the NFL’s top-rated defense with a 32-18 victory last week, picking up 100 more offensive yards than the Rams’ season average.

These teams met only once this season, in week 6, with the Bucs taking a 38-10 victory in what stands as the Packers’ worst loss this season. However, as Aaron Rodgers said, that does not matter now. Or will it?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Tom Brady during the offseason to get them to the postseason. Now, Brady has the Bucs within one win from making their first Super Bowl appearance since winning it all in 2002. Last week, the Bucs defeated the New Orleans Saints 30-20, in the divisional round.

Brady will be making his 14th appearance in the NFC title game and is eyeing a 7th Super Bowl ring. Tampa Bay ranked no. 2 in the league in passing, sandwiched between the AFC Finalists Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Of course, that’s because they have Brady, who passed for 4,633 yards with 40 TDS this season. RB Leonard Fournette had 63 rushing yards on 17 carries while catching 44 yards with one receiving score. RB Ronald Jones picked up 62 yards on the ground on 13 carries.

Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers are the NFC’s top seed and they are right where they are supposed to be. Green Bay defeated the L.A. Rams 32-18 in their divisional playoff game, to record their seventh consecutive win and 9th in their last 10 games. The Packers have also won their last six games at Lambeau Field and this is the first time where Aaron Rodgers will be playing there with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Rodgers will be starting in the fifth conference championship game of his career. The 2020 MVP favorite completed 23 of 36 passes for 296 yards with two touchdowns in their win over the Rams. RB Aaron Jones led the rushing attack with 99 yards on 14 carries with one score. WR Allen Lazard continues his hot streak with four catches for 96 yards and a 58-yard TD.

Who Wins?

Tampa Bay is 6-0 SU in their last six games played. The Bucs are 7-0 SU in their last seven games played on the road. Green Bay is 7-0 SU in their last seven games played. The Packers are 6-0 SU in their last six games played at Lambeau Field. Head to head, these teams have split their last 10 meetings. However, Green Bay is 15-1 SU in their last 16 games against Tampa Bay at Lambeau Field.

Tom Brady has thrown for at least 348 yards in four out of his last five games but had just 199 passing yards the last time out. The Tampa Bay defense held Michael Thomas without a catch last weekend and they need to put up the same effort against Davante Adams. The Bucs held Adams to three catches and 60 yards without a score in their only meeting of the season that’s a good sign.

Green Bay racked up 484 yards against the league’s top defense last weekend. Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season and he has a TD: TO ratio of 21:1 over his last seven games. If they can take good care of the ball, the Packers should pick up the win here. Green Bay is 11-0 this season when not committing a single turnover but 3-3 when committing at least one turnover.

Tom Brady is having a fantastic season. However, if you were to find a fault in the six-time Super Bowl winner this season, it’s that he’s not taking the shots downfield like he used to. And because of that, he’s allowed opposing defenses to play deep and keep everything in front of them. Tampa Bay also doesn’t have a dominant run game which could take advantage of Green Bay’s chief weakness. That said, I don’t want to bet against Aaron Rodgers at home, in the playoffs. He is 6-2 SU at Lambeau Field in the postseason with wins in each of his last four at home.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers

Other Bets To Make

The Bucs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played. Tampa Bay is 3-5 ATS in eight road games against the NFC, and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 January games. The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played. Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC, and 4-1 ATS in their last five Sunday games. Head to head, the Bucs are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played against the Packers.

Green Bay proved last week that it can move the ball with ease against anybody. And although the Packers could struggle to pull away from a Tampa Bay team that has scored at least 30 points in their last three games, Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs is another animal. The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff games. Rodgers’ ability to go downfield and keep the defense honest will be the difference in this game. I’ll lay the points with the Packers.

Prediction: Packers -3

The total has gone over in 14 out of the last 20 games played by the Bucs against the NFC. The over is 5-3 in their last eight games played on the road. The total has gone over in eight out of the last 13 games played by the Packers against the NFC. The over is 8-0 in their last eight January games. Head to head, the total has gone over in four out of the last six games played between these two teams.

These teams have combined to score just 39.0 points per game in their last three meetings and 48 in their only meeting of the season last October 18, 2020. However, the Packers have scored at least 30 points in each of their last six games played and the Bucs have put up 30+ points as well in their last five assignments. The Packers have seen the total hit 50 in four of their last five games while the Bucs have seen the total go 50 or over in each of their last nine games and over 51 in seven of those games. With two of the most prolific passing QBS ever, I like this game to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 51

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