Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots 12/01/22 NFL Odds and Prediction

The Buffalo Bills travel to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Thursday night.

Buffalo is 8-3 SU on the season, tied with the Miami Dolphins for the best record in the AFC East Division. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 6-5 SU on the season and are at the bottom of a very competitive group. The Bills rallied to beat the Detroit Lions 28-25 the last time out while the Patriots lost to the Minnesota Vikings 26-33 in their most recent game.

Buffalo has won four out of the last five head-to-head meetings between these two teams, including a 47-17 blowout win in their last game played. New England however holds a huge edge in all-time head-to-head meetings at 76-46-1 but the Bills won their last meeting here 33-21 last December 36, 2021.

Buffalo Bills

After losing two straight games, the Bills have bounced back and have beaten the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions in succession. Last Thursday, the Bills engaged the Lions in a back-and-forth match that ended in a 28-25 win with Tyler Bass kicking the game-winning FG with time running out.

Josh Allen has passed for 3,183 passing yards with 23 touchdowns and a QBR of 75.2. Allen is also the team’s leading rusher with 561 yards on 81 carries with 5 TD runs. Stefon Diggs is Allen’s top target with 84 catches for 1,110 receiving yards with 9 TD grabs.

Buffalo is 2nd in scoring at 28.1 points per game. They are 3rd in passing offense at 279.2 yards per game and 8th on the ground at 136.7 rushing yards per content. The Bills also have the 5th best scoring defense in the NFL at 18.1 points per game allowed.

New England Patriots

New England is 6-5 SU on the season and in the bottom of the AFC East division where all teams are above the .500 mark. They had beaten the Jets twice and Colts once before dropping a game against the Minnesota Vikings the last time out To get back in the playoff hunt, New England needs to start beating its division rivals and this one is a good game to start.

Mac Jones has thrown for 1,768 passing yards with 6 TDs and a QBR of 34.1. Rhamondre Stevenson leads the team in rushing with 680 yards on 151 carries with four rush TDs scored. Meanwhile, Jakobi Meyers leads the team with 561 receiving yards on 47 catches with three TD grabs.

New England is 16th in the league in passing offense at 216.9 yards this season. They are 23rd on the ground at 109.0 rushing yards per game. The Patriots are just 18th in scoring at 21.7 points per game but they ran 6th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game allowed this season.

Bills vs Patriots SU Prediction

The Bills are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Patriots. Buffalo is 4-16 SU in their last 20 games played in New England.

Buffalo Bills SU trends:

• The Bills are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games played.
• The Bills are 4-2 SU in their 6 road games played so far this season.
• The Bills are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games played against the AFC conference.
• The Bills are 7-3-1 SU in their last 11 games played against the AFC East Division.

New England Patriots SU trends:

• The Patriots are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played.
• The Patriots are 3-2 SU in their last 5 home games played.
• The Patriots are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played against the AFC.
• The Patriots are 2-1 SU in their 3 home games against the AFC this season.

Buffalo’s next three games are against the Patriots, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins. If they just continue to put their foot on the gas pedal and not let up, sweeping those games is a good possibility and that would mean winning the AFC East for the third straight year.

The Bills however suffered a huge blow when Von Miller suffered a knee injury in their last game. Miller will be out for the foreseeable future and the rest of the defensive unit must step up if Buffalo wants that division title.

New England’s defense has been very good all season long. But somehow, it failed them last week against Minnesota, allowing Kirk Cousins to throw a season-high 3 TD passes while the special teams allowed a 97-yard TD punt return. On the positive side of things, Mac Jones threw for 382 yards with 2 TDs in the loss to the Vikings.

The Patriots, however, aren’t known to play back-to-back bad games. Given that head coach Bill Belichick is extra hard on players who perform poorly, I expect New England to play much better this week.

New England’s offense was a bright spot last week but even if Mac Jone plays as well on Thursday, he will be up against the no. 3 best passing team in the NFL this season. Josh Allen and his offense will prove to be too much for the Patriots to match. If their defense continues to fail them, New England will watch Buffalo pull away early and coast for the win.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Bills vs Patriots ATS Prediction

The Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games played against the Patriots. Buffalo is also 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games played in New England.

Buffalo Bills ATS trends:

• The Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Bills are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
• The Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on field turf.
• The Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC.
• The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Bills are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.
• The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 versus the AFC East.
• The Bills are 1-4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.

New England Patriots ATS trends:

• The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• The Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus the AFC.
• The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 13.
• The Patriots are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
• The Patriots are 38-13 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 37-14-2 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 39-17-2 ATS in their last 58 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
• The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in December.

Buffalo’s Top 5 defense suffered a huge blow when Miller got hurt. The hope now is that he can return for the homestretch of the season and the playoffs. Without Miller, the Bills’ offense will have to do its job to get the victory here.

New England’s defense has been very good this season but we saw them struggle against the Vikings last week. I think they will find the same issues with this more prolific Buffalo offensive unit.

The Bills defeated the Patriots here last December to lock up the AFC East division title and then Buffalo mauled New England in the playoffs. While the Patriots will be looking to avenge both losses on Thursday night, the Bills are also looking to assert their dominance over the Patriots. Buffalo has the offense that can win a game and that’s what will happen here.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills -5

Bills vs Patriots Over/Under Prediction

The over is 4-2 in the last 6 games played between these two teams. The over is also 2-0-1 in their last three head-to-head meetings in Foxboro.

Buffalo Bills over/under trends:

• The under is 7-2 in the Bills’ last 9 games overall.
• The under is 6-0 in the Bills’ last 6 road games.
• The under is 6-0 in the Bills’ last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 4-0 in the Bills’ last 4 Thursday games.
• The under is 5-1 in the Bills’ last 6 against the AFC.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 games in Week 13.
• The under is 4-1 in the Bills’ last 5 versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 24-9 in the Bills’ last 33 games on field turf.
• The over is 9-2 in the Bills’ last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

New England Patriots over/under trends:

• The over is 8-3 in the Patriots’ last 11 home games.
• The over is 5-0 in the Patriots’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 7-2 in the Patriots’ last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The over is 6-2 in the Patriots’ last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 7-3 in the Patriots’ last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The over is 11-5 in the Patriots’ last 16 games on field turf.
• The under is 6-1 in the Patriots’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 6-1 in the Patriots’ last 7 games in December.
• The under is 5-1 in the Patriots’ last 6 games in Week 13.
• ​​The under is 16-5 in the Patriots’ last 21 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Patriots’ last 7 games versus the. AFC.
• The under is 27-13 in the Patriots’ last 40 games following an ATS loss.

These teams have combined to score 42.1 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 47.33 points per game in their most recent three encounters. They have combined to score more than 43 points four times in their last five games played.

Buffalo has scored at least 27 points in four out of their last five games played and the total has hit over 43 points seven times in their last 10 games played. Meanwhile, New England has scored at least 26 points six times in their last 9 games played. Their four losses this season have been high-scoring games where they allowed 27 or more points.

Buffalo ranks 2nd in the league in total offense and 2nd in scoring at 28.1 points per game. New England has a stout defensive unit but once the Bills pour on the points early, the Patriots will be left with no choice but to engage them in another shootout.

Prediction: Over 43.5

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