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A battle between the top teams in the East will take place on Monday night as the 2nd place Chicago Bulls visit the East leaders Miami Heat at the FTX Arena.
The Bulls are 39-22 SU on the season and one game behind the Heat in the East standings. Chicago is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played but head to this game coming off a 116-110 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies in their most recent game.
The Heat are 40-21 SUB of the year and they are the Eastern Conference leaders, one game ahead of the Bulls. Miami is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games played and has won three in a row. The Heat are coming off a 133-129 win over the San Antonio Spurs in their last games played.
Chicago Bulls
Chicago rallied from a 17-point deficit against the Grizzlies and managed to cut the lead down to two before eventually losing to Memphis. DeMar DeRozan continued his 30-point streak with 31 points but shot just 10-29 from the field before he was ejected in the closing seconds. Zach LaVine also had a big night with 28 points and 6 assists but they just could not stop Ja Morant who poured in a career-high 46 in the win.
DeRozan is Chicago’s top scorer and passer at 28.3 points and 5.1 assists per game. Nikola Vucevic is the team’s top rebounder at 11.7 boards grabbed per contest and he also leads the team in steals at 1.0 SPG and blocks at 1.2 BPG. Zach Lavine is having a great season at 24.6 points per game for Chicago.
The Bulls are 8th in the league in scoring at 112.6 points per game this season. Chicago is just 27th off the glass with 43.3 rebounds per game and are 14th in passing at 24.2 assists per game. On defense, Chicago ranks just 18th in scoring defense at 110.4 points per game allowed.
Miami Heat
Miami picked up its third straight win when they defeated the San Antonio Spurs 133-129 in their last game. All-Star big man Bam Adebayo scored a season-high 36 points while Tyler Herro scored 27 points off the bench. Jimmy Butler also had a big night with 27 points despite playing in only 30 minutes. Meanwhile, Kyle Lowry had a double-double with 12 points and 10 assists.
Herro leads the Heat in scoring at 20.2 points per game this season while Lowry is the team’s top passer at 7.9 assists per game. Adebayo is averaging 10.2 rebounds per game but Dewayne Dedmon is their leading rebounder at 6.2 boards per contest with Adebayo unable to meet the minimum number of games needed to be a stats leader.
The Heat are no. 16 in the NBA in scoring at 109.4 points per game allowed. Miami is 18th in rebounding at 44.6 boards grabbed per contest and are 6th overall in passing at 25.7 assists per game. Defensively, the Heat are 5th in scoring defense, allowing just 104.8 points per game this season.
Who Wins?
Chicago is 6-1 SU in their last seven games played. The Bulls had 15-13 SU in their 28 road games played this season, and 8-1 SU in their last nine games against the Southeast Division.
Miami is 8-1 SU in their last nine games played. The Heat are just 14-14 SU in their 28 home games played this season, but 5-0 SU in their last five games against the Eastern Conference.
Head to head, the Heat are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bulls.
You have to give Chicago credit because despite playing without both Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso for a significant number of games now, they are still competing with the Heat for the top spot in the Eastern Conference.
The Bulls have a deep bench and their primary scorers DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine are also terrific ball handlers and playmakers so they have been able to cope with the absence of Ball and Caruso. However, we saw Ja Morant erupt for 46 points with the Bulls missing the defensive play of both Ball and Caruso from the guard position.
Unfortunately for the Bulls, they will have issues defending the guards again without Ball and Caruso as Miami’s leading scorer is guard Tyler Herro and the Heat have other guard scorers like Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry. Likewise, if the Bulls’ frontcourt got outplayed by Memphis’s big men, they will have a hard time with Miami’s Adebayo, Butler, and Tucker.
Prediction: Miami Heat
Other Bets to Make
The Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played. Chicago is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight up loss, 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on one day rest, 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 Monday games, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after an ATS loss.
The Heat are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games played. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last five games played at home, 1-5 ATS in their last six games against an opponent with a winning record, 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games when allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Heat are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 February games, 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on one day rest.
Head to head, the Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Bulls.
Bulls
+4 (-107)
Heat
-4 (-113)
Odds from BetOnline as of 02/28/2022
The Heat have not covered the spread well as of late, even at home. However, the Bulls are an opponent that they have dominated in their recent head-to-head meetings. In fact, they are 2-0 SU and ATS against Chicago this season, even winning their most recent matchup by 26 points.
Without top defensive guards Ball and Caruso, the Chicago defense will struggle against Miami’s guard-heavy scoring offense. I think this will be a good game between the top teams in the East but in the end, the deeper Heat team is going to pull off the win and cover the betting spread.
Prediction: Miami Heat -4
The total has gone under in four out of the last five games played by the Bulls. The under is 4-1 in their last five games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game,4-1 in their last five games when their opponent allows more than 100 points in their previous game, and 13-6-1 in their last 20 road games against an opponent with a winning record.
The total has gone over in 11 out of the Heat’s last 16 games played. The over is 6-1 in their last seven home games and 8-3 in their last 11 games after a straight up win. However, the under is 9-4 in their last 13 home Monday games played, 4-1 in their last five games when allowing more than 125 points in their previous game, and 4-1 in their last five home games when playing on one day rest.
Over
224 (-110)
Under
224 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 02/28/2022
The Bulls are a Top 10 scoring team and are in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense. However, the over is just 14-13-1 in their 28 road games played this season. The Heat on the other hand are in the bottom half of the NBA in scoring and have the league’s no. 5 ranked defense at 104.8 points per game allowed.
These two teams have combined to score only 207.3 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 211 points per game in their most recent three games played.
The Heat went over 226.5 points in their previous home game against the Spurs but went below that mark in their previous three home games. The Bulls are a high-scoring team but mustered just 110 against the Grizzlies the last time out.
Miami’s slow-paced game isn’t going to help this total. I think these teams play in a defense-oriented game. The Bulls don’t want to go toe to toe with the Heat minus two key contributors. Even with DeRozan and LaVine healthy, Chicago may find it had to match Miami’s offensive output here so they will look to make stops on defense to pull off the win.
Prediction: Under 224
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