Canelo Alvarez vs Daniel Jacobs Prediction - Boxing Pick & Odds for 5/04

Mexican superstar Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will face fellow champion Daniel “Miracle Man” Jacobs in a title unification bout on May 4, 2019 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Alvarez won the WBC and WBA (super) middleweight titles when he narrowly outpointed Gennady Golovkin in their rematch last September. Jacobs meanwhile, defeated Sergiy Derevyanchenko to win the vacant IBF middleweight championship in October 2018. The IBF belt used to belong to Golovkin too but the Kazakh was stripped of the belt when he chose to fight Vanes Martirosyan instead of Derevyanchenko prior to his rematch with Canelo.

Jacobs also narrowly lost to Golovkin prior to the first Canelo-GGG bout. So as you can see, boxing’s middleweight division has revolved around these three men: Canelo, GGG and Jacobs who are considered the best middleweight in the game today. And after Canelo “beat” Golovkin in their rematch, Jacobs gets his crack at the winner.

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez

Alvarez is boxing’s biggest draw in the post-Floyd Mayweather Jr. era. Known as Canelo ( Cinnamon) for his red hair color, Alvarez is a three-division champion, winning multiple world titles from light middleweight to super middleweight. Canelo is currently the #3 pound for pound fighter in the planet. Since September 2018, he is the unified middleweight champion, owning the WBC, WBC (super), Ring and lineal middleweight titles.

Alvarez has elite offensive skills and has a very high fight IQ. He is an excellent counter puncher, with plenty of pop in his punches and is also one of the best combination fighters in the sport. Canelo also has a solid chin and is sharp with his defense as well. He does a great job bobbing and weaving to avoid his opponent’s punches.

🇲🇽Recap de lo que vivimos la semana pasada durante el Press Tour. Gracias a todos los que formaron parte.
🇺🇸Recap from last week's Press Tour. Thanks to everyone who were part of it. #CaneloJacobs #DoItYourWay pic.twitter.com/CjYWiO4hAd

— Canelo Alvarez (@Canelo) March 13, 2019

The 28-year old Canelo stands 5-9 with a reach of 70.5 inches. He has an impressive professional record of 51-1-2 with 35 knockouts. His lone career defeat came at the hands of the great Floyd Mayweather Jr. when latter moved up to challenge for Canelo’s 154 pound titles. In his last bout, Alvarez scored a 3rd round TKO of an overmatched Rocky Fielding last December.

Canelo Alvarez vs Daniel Jacobs Odds

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Alvarez

-334

Jacobs

+279

Odds from betonline.ag as of 3/15/19

Daniel “Miracle Man” Jacobs

Daniel Jacobs is considered the third wheel in boxing’s middleweight division.The 32-year old from Brooklyn was the former WBA middleweight champion who lost his title in a close and perhaps controversial unanimous decision against Gennady Golovkin in 2017. Jacobs wasn’t just the first man to take Triple-G to the full 12-round route, he was the first opponent to compete (and perhaps beat?) Golovkin inside the professional boxing ring.

Jacobs’ size and punching power makes him a tough opponent for any middleweight. Coming from Brooklyn and being a cancer survivor, Jacobs is also tough as nails and never backs down. He is excellent in getting in and out with his power shots and has good movement around the ring that makes him a difficult target. He also has a very good jab and hand speed for a middleweight fighter.

The Miracle man is 5-11 ½ tall and has a reach of 73 inches. He enters this fight with a record of 35-2 with 29 knockouts. His two losses came against Golovkin and to Dmitry Pirog in 2010 via 5th round TKO during his first attempt at a world title. In his most recent bout, Jacobs won a close split decision win over the previously unbeaten Sergiy Derevyanchenko last October.

Who Wins?

Being the natural middleweight and the physically bigger fighter, there’s no question that Danny Jacobs has the advantage in punching power here. Power has always been Jacobs’ edge over his opponents although he also has the ability to box for 12 rounds. Jacobs is going to use his length to score his jabs against Alvarez. But more than box around, Jacobs will use his jab to set up his power punches and go for the kill. I’m not sure if Jacobs thinks he can beat Alvarez in a technical boxing match. But he knows that if he lands his big bombs, he is probably going to put Alvarez to sleep or at the very least, slow his pace down.

Canelo has always been known as a counter-puncher but he surprised Golovkin in their rematch when he engaged the Kazakh god of war in a toe to toe battle in the center of the ring. Actually, Canelo told reporters before the fight that he would slug it out with GGG but many were skeptical knowing Golovkin’s strengths. But Alvarez did well and even outperformed Golovkin in most of the exchanges. More importantly, he proved that he is a very durable fighter as he stood toe to toe with the most feared puncher in the business.

We saw Danny Jacobs visibly slow down late in his fight against Gennady Golovkin and that’s what perhaps cost him that bout. The same could happen here with Alvarez being an excellent body puncher like Golovkin. If Canelo invests to Jacobs’ body, he’s going to keep the Miracle Man at bay and force him to fight a technical fight. Although Jacobs is an elite boxer, he isn’t as physically gifted and skilled as Alvarez is so if Canelo takes away Jacobs’ advantage in power, the Mexican is likely going to end up getting his hand raised after 12 rounds.

I don’t see this ending early. I don’t think Canelo has the power to knock out Jacobs but neither do I think that Jacobs can catch Canelo clean with his big bombs. Both men will have their moments here and I think this is going to be a good, action-packed fight. But I think Canelo’s body punching and volume are going to tire Jacobs and contain the damage he could do. It’s going to go the distance and the better skilled fighter win this one.

I’m picking Saul “Canelo” Alvarez to beat Daniel Jacobs via a close decision.

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