St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers 05/12/2021 MLB Odds, Preview, and Pick

The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers go head to head in Game 2 of this three-game set between National League Central foes.

St. Louis took Game 1 via the score of 6-1 in 11 innings and cashed out as +113 betting underdogs. The Cardinals are currently on top of the NL Central with a 22-14 record while the Brewers are having a rough patch as they’ve dropped to 19-7 on the season.

This is the second season series between these division rivals. Milwaukee took the first series 2-1 last month. They split their 10 regular season meetings in 2020.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are the hottest team in the Majors right now with 10 wins in their last 11 outings. St. Louis extended its current winning streak to four with a five-run 11th inning that enabled them to beat the Brewers in Game 1 of this season. St. Louis is currently three games up on Milwaukee in the Divisional team standings.

John Gant will open on top of the mound for the Cardinals on Wednesday. The 28-year old former reliever walked six batters against the Mets last Thursday while also allowing two runs on five hits to take the loss. Gant has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 2.15 and a WHIP of 1.70. In 29.1 innings pitched, he has allowed 26 hits, 25 strikeouts, and 24 walks.

Yadier Molina is St. Louis’ best hitter with a split of .329/.367/.630 with five home runs and 18 RBIs. Paul DeJong has 7 home runs and 17 RBIs while Nolan Arenado leads the team with a total of 23 RBIs on the season.

The Cardinals rank 11th in ERA at 3.82. They are 9th in BAA at .218 and have a total of 12 quality starts on the year. On offense, they are tied for 8th with a total of 161 total runs scored and are also 8th in slugging at .405. Their batting average of .236 is 12th overall.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are in a tough stretch right now with just two wins in their last nine games played. Despite their current struggles, Milwaukee is still second in the NL Central behind the Cardinals. The Brewers lost six straight games before beating the Marlins twice last week. However, they lost Game 1 of this series yesterday.

Right-hander Brandon Woodruff will start for the Brewers in Game 2. The 28-year old has started seven games this season and has a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 1.73 and a WHIP of 0.77. Woodruff has pitched in a total of 41.2 innings and has allowed 8 runs on 21 hits with 51 strikeouts and only 11 walks.

Travis Shaw leads Milwaukee with 23 RBIs and five home runs on the season. Avisail Garcia is the team’s best hitter at .273 and he also has 30 hits with 18 RBIs and 4 home runs. Luis Orias has contributed 15 RBIs and three home runs while Omar Narvaez has 25 hits and 11 RBIs for the Brewers.

Milwaukee’s 3.57 ERA is ranked 9th in the league and their BAA of .212 is second-best overall. The Brewers’ WHIP of 1.14 is 4th best in the Majors while their 16 quality starts are tied for third. Milwaukee however is ranked just 26th in runs scored at 134, on-base percentage at .299, and slugging percentage at .365. They are also just 27th in batting average at .217

Who Wins?

The St. Louis Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 games played. St. Louis is 6-0 in their last six games against the National League Central, 5-0 in their last five Game 2s of a series, 6-1 in their last seven games against a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or better, and 9-2 in their last 11 games on grass 

St. Louis is 3-7 in their last 10 games as underdogs, 1-4 in their last five Wednesday games, and 1-4 in their last five road games as the betting underdogs. Head to head, The Cardinals are 4-2 in their last six road games against Milwaukee.

The Milwaukee Brewers are 9-2 in their last 11 games against an opponent with a winning record, 18-7 in their last 25 Wednesday games, 36-17 in their last 53 Game 2s of a series, and 12-5 in their last 17 games against a starter with a WHIP above 1.30.

Milwaukee is 1-4 in their last five games against a right-handed starter, 2-6 in their last eight games played on grass, 2-7 in their last nine games against the National League, and 2-6 in their last eight games played overall.

Woodruff has been as good as he can be with a FIP that almost matches his impressive ERA. And yes, don’t forget that 25.5% K-BB%. Woodruff has consistently pitched to the sixth inning or even deeper, leaving the rest of the game to a very good bullpen led by Josh Hader.

Gant’s low ERA is impressive. However, he walks 17.9% of the batters he faces which is almost the same percentage of hitters that he strikes out. His inconsistency with control could help the struggling Milwaukee offense to put runners on the bases, and hopefully, end The Brewers’ current struggles.

I’ll eat the chalk and go with Woodruff here. I think he will dominate The Cardinals on Wednesday.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers -162

Over/Under Betting

The under is 5-4-1 in the last 10 games played by the Cardinals. The total has gone under in three out of their last five Wednesday games. St. Louis has seen the total go under in 18 out of their last 26 games as the betting underdogs. The under is also 5-2 in their last seven games as road underdogs.

The under is 12-4-1 in Milwaukee’s last 17 Game 2s of a series. The total has gone under in 14 out of their last 22 games against the National League. The under is 39-18-3 in their last 60 games against an opponent with a winning record, 41-20-4 in their last 65 games when the total is set between 7-8.5, and 11-3 in their last 14 games when the total is set at 11 or lower.

Head to head, the total has gone under in six out of their last 10 games played. The under is also 5-2-1 in their last eight meetings in Milwaukee.

While I don’t think that Gant can sustain his 2.15 ERA because of the percentage of batters that he walks, his FIP of 4 is very respectable and throughout his career, he has been very effective in limiting the long balls. With only three of Milwaukee’s healthy regulars hitting above par, Gant will find some success against the Brewers.

St. Louis has a team that has plenty of power but can’t get runners to bases. They have hit better in the last couple of weeks but still are batting in the average range. Both teams also have very strong pitching staff and have an excellent defense as well. This should be a pitchers’ matchup which Woodruff will dominate late.

Prediction: Under 7 (+100)

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