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The Arizona Cardinals travel to the SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Rams in the Monday Night Football featured game of the week. The winner of this wild card game advances to the Divisional Round of the playoffs while the loser gets an early vacation.
Arizona looked like it was a cinch to win the NFC West this season but after losing four out of their last five games, the Cardinals dropped to second with their 11-6 SU record. Meanwhile, the Rams closed out the season strong with five wins in their last six games to finish at 12-5 SU and take the division crown. Now, these two familiar foes will meet in the wild card round.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals failed to win their finale, losing 38-30 to Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. QB Kyler Murray threw for 240 passing yards with 1 TD and zero interceptions. James Conner also rushed for a touchdown but the Arizona defense gave up 431 yards to Seattle and lost the game.
They ranked 10th in passing offense at 251.5 yards per game, 10th in rush offense at 122.1 yards per contest, and were the 11th highest-scoring team in the league this season at 26.4 points per game scored.
Arizona was tied for 9th in scoring defense at 21.5 points per game allowed. The Cardinals limited their opponents to only 329.2 offensive yards per game, 11th in the NFL, and were 7th in passing defense at 214.4 passing yards per game allowed. This defense got a boost when J.J. Watt returned to practice this week, although head coach Kliff Kingsbury was non-committal on Watt playing on Monday.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams saw their five-game winning streak end in Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season with a 27-24 overtime loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Matthew Stafford completed 21 of 32 passes for three touchdowns and two interceptions. Cooper Kupp caught 118 yards with one score while Tyler Higbee also caught two TD passes. However, the 49ers were off to a strong 24-7 start and never looked back.
L.A. ranked 5th in passing offense at 273.1 yards per game. They were only 25th in rushing with an average of only 99.9 rushing yards per game and were the no. 7 ranked scoring team in the NFL at 27.1 points per game scored.
Los Angeles ranks 15th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game allowed. The Rams are just 22nd in passing defense at 241.7 yards per game allowed. They are 17th in total yards allowed at 344.9 per game this season. The Rams offense meanwhile, will get 2020 rookie standout, Cam Akers, back for this wild card game.
Who Wins?
Arizona is 1-4 SU in their last five games played. The Cardinals are 8-1 SU in their last nine road games. The Rams are 5-1 SU in their last six games played. Los Angeles is 5-3 SU in 8 home games played this season.
Head to head, the Rams are 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings against the Cardinals. However, Arizona is 11-5 SU in their last 16 road games in Los Angeles.
The Cardinals are only the 9th team in NFL history to win 8 times on the road in a single season. The most notable of those wins came in Tennessee, Dallas, and of course, the SoFi Stadium in Week 4. The key to Arizona could be the return of J.J. Watt after missing 10 games due to injury. The Cardinals were 7-0 SU with Watt and only 4-6 without him.
Matthew Stafford was one of the league’s most efficient QB through Week 9 with a passer rating of 111. But after week 9, he’s thrown a league-high 11 interceptions including four pick-sixes, while finishing with a career-worst 17 INTs this season. Stafford has a 0-3 SU playoff record but those happened when he was still in Detroit This is the “new” Stafford. The Rams hope he shows up.
The Rams added Stafford, OBJ, and Von Miller specifically for games like this one so I expect them to lead the way for the Rams. With the best wide receiver in the game in Cooper Kupp, the Rams offense is a handful. Then there’s Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey who are game-breakers. Give me the Rams here.
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams
Other Bets to Make
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in nine road games played this season, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against an opponent with a winning record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 January games, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games, and 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games.
Los Angeles is 4-2 ATS in their last six games played. The Rams are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games played after a straight-up loss, and 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 games played against the NFC. However, the Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games played, 1-4 ATS in their last five games as playoff favorites, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games against an opponent with a winning record.
Head to head, the Rams are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Cardinals and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings at the SoFi Stadium. The favorite is also 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 games between these two teams.
Cardinals
+3.5 (-113)
Rams
-3.5 (-107)
Odds from BetOnline as of 01/17/2022
These two teams split their first two meetings of the season. However, the Rams finished their 2021 campaign with a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark while the Cardinals sputtered with a 1-4 SU and ATS mark in their last five games. Stafford struggled during the second half of the season but the Rams still managed to finish strong. As stated above, this is the type of game the Rams got Stafford, OBJ, and Miller for. With Sean McVay’s postseason experience, the Rams should be able to clean up the offense.
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams -3.5
The total has gone under in 8 out of the last nine Monday games played by the Cardinals. The under is 4-0 in their last four games after an ATS loss, 4-0 in their last four games after a straight-up loss,13-3 in their last 16 games on field turf, 16-5 in their last 21 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, 5-2 in their last seven road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 7-3 in their last 10 games as road underdogs, and 13-4 in their last 17 road games.
The total has gone under in each of the Rams’ last four games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game, 17-5 in their last 22 games as home favorites, 8-3 in their last 11 games after a straight-up loss, 5-2 in their last seven home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 13-6 in their last 19 games after an ATS loss, and 25-10-1 in their last 36 games as betting favorites.
Over
49.5 -(110)
Under
49.5 -(110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 01/17/2022
With this being the third meeting between these two teams this season, I expect the teams to know each other well enough to turn this into a low-scoring game. The L.A. defense hasn’t been as dominant as in previous years but with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, they are still one of the toughest defenses in the league.
The Cardinals were pressuring 31% of their opponent’s dropbacks with J.J. Watt playing. Without Watt, that percentage dropped to 23%. With Watt expected to play on Monday, the Arizona defense should be able to at least disrupt Stafford and the Rams offense enough to affect their scoring.
Prediction: Under 49.5
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