Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat 03/10/2023 NBA Preview and Prediction

The Cleveland Cavaliers look to repeat against the Miami Heat when the two teams play in Florida on Friday night.

Cleveland took down Miami last Wednesday 104-100 behind solid games from Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. The Cavs are currently the no. 4 team in the Eastern Conference and they are within striking distance of the 3rd seeded Philadelphia 76ers. Miami meanwhile is 7th in the East team standings and is trying to catch the Brooklyn Nets for the final outright playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

The Cavs are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played and have won three in a row. On the other hand, the Heat are just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played Cleveland is also 6.5 games up on Miami in the team standings.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs are at the Top 4 and if the playoffs were to start today, they would have home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. However, Cleveland still has a chance to move up to no. 3 and supplant the Philadelphia 76ers who are just 2.5 games ahead of them in the team standings. But to catch up, they need to win as many games as possible with the regular season winding down.

Donovan Mitchell continues to lead the Cavs with 27.4 points per game on 47.7% FG shooting. Meanwhile, Darius Garland is also having a great year at 22 points per game this season. Evan Mobley is the team’s third double-digit scorer at 15.9 points while also grabbing 8.9 rebounds per game. Jarrett Allen leads the team in rebounding at 9.8 boards grabbed per contest.

Cleveland is scoring 111.9 points per game on 48.8 FG shooting. The Cavs are allowing opponents to score 106.5 points per contest on 46.5% FG shooting. They are hitting 36.3% of their three-point attempts and 77.9% of their foul shots. On the other hand, the Cavs are conceding 36.9% from deep while grabbing 41.8 boards per contest.

Miami Heat

The Heat are in 7th place in the East standings and are 13 games behind the leaders Milwaukee Bucks. Miami is just 1.5 games back of 6th seed Brooklyn and outright entry to the playoffs. But the Heat are also just 1.5 games up on the 8th-seeded Atlanta Hawks so they can still move both ways.

Jimmy Butler leads Miami in scoring at 22.1 points per game on 52.2% FG shooting. Bam Adebayo is averaging 21.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game while Tyler Herro is the 3rd 20-point scorer at 20.4 points per game this year.

The Heat are the lowest-scoring team in the league this season at only 108.3 points per game. Miami is shooting 45.3% from the field while allowing opponents to score 109.1 points per game and 47.9% FG shooting. Miami is shooting just 33.6% from downtown but is a very good 82.8% from the free-throw line. They are allowing their opponents to shoot 36.6% from deep and are pulling down 41.0 boards per contest.

Cavaliers vs Heat SU Prediction

The Cavaliers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played against the Heat. The Cavs are 2-3 SU in their last 5 games played in Miami.

Cleveland Cavaliers SU trends:

• The Cavaliers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Cavaliers are 14-19 SU in their last 33 road games played.
• The Cavaliers are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Cavaliers are 8-10 SU in their last 18 road games against teams from the East.

Miami Heat SU trends:

• The Heat are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Heat are 21-13 SU in their last 34 games played at home.
• The Heat are 15-5 SU in their last 20 home games played on a Friday.
• The Heat are 18-22 SU in their last 40 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Heat are 12-10 SU in their last 22 home games played against teams from the East.

The Cavaliers will be looking to win their second game against the Heat in three nights. Cleveland saw all five of its starters score in double digits as they beat the Heat 104-100 in Miami. The game was close early with 18 lead changes but the Cavs moved ahead and took a 12-point lead in the third quarter. The Heat rallied in the 4th period and were able to cut the lead to one but the Cavs pulled away to win the game.

Darius Garland led the Cavs with 25 points while Donovan Mitchell added 18. The Cavs have won 11 out of 15 games played in February and are surging as the season is closing. Jarrett Allen posted a double-double with 15 points and 12 rebounds while shooting 7-10 from the floor. Evan Mobley scored 15 points, grabbed six rebounds, and issued six assists.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 28 points while Tyler Herro added 22. Bam Adebayo contributed 17 points in the loss. The Heat committed a season-high 24 turnovers which led to 29 points for the Cavaliers.

The Cavs have won three in a row and four out of their last 5 to stay within striking distance of the no. 3 Philadelphia 76ers. This is the second of four straight road games for Cleveland. The next two will also be a two-game set with one team as they visit the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday and Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Miami is trying to hold off the Atlanta Hawks for the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference team standings. They are also trying to catch the Brooklyn Nets for the 6th seed and automatic entry to the playoffs. This is Game 5 of a five-game home stand for the Heat who lost the first two but won the last two.

The Cavs won the first of this two-game set and they are the more consistent team this season. The Heat have underachieved and continue to struggle. Give me the Cavs to win, again.

Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavaliers vs Heat ATS Prediction

The Cavaliers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games played against the Heat. Cleveland is 3-13 in their last 16 meetings in Miami.

Cleveland Cavaliers ATS trends:

• The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win.
• The Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.
• The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
• The Cavaliers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played in March.

Miami Heat ATS trends:

• The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
• The Heat are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 home games.
• The Heat are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.
• The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record
• The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game
• The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game
• The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
• The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Eastern Conference.

Cavaliers vs Heat Over/Under Prediction

The under is 5-1 in the last 6 games played between these two teams. The over is 7-2 in their last 9 meetings in Miami.

Cleveland Cavaliers over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 5 road games.
• The over is 6-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 7 Friday games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 4-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The over is 6-2 in the Cavaliers’ last 8 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-2 in the Cavaliers’ last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-2 in the Cavaliers’ last 7 road games against a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The under is 5-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 6 versus a team with a winning straight-up record.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

• The under is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 overall.
• The under is 9-4 in the Heat’s last 13 home games.
• The under is 7-1 in the Heat’s last 8 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 4-1 in the Heat’s last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 4-1 in the Heat’s last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-2 in the Heat’s last 6 games played in March.
• The under is 10-3 in the Heat’s last 13 games played against the Central Division.

Miami’s offense continues to struggle. They are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA this season and are just 26th overall in adjusted offensive rating. The Cavaliers are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA this season. They should be able to hold down the Heat and help push this into a low-scoring affair.

No question, the Cavs have the firepower with Mitchell and Garland but in this game, they won’t have to do too much scoring here as the Heat are an inconsistent offensive team. These teams played to the under the last time out. I don’t think a couple of days will make a difference.

Prediction: Under 213.5

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