Cleveland Cavaliers vs Brooklyn Nets 04/12/2022 NBA Preview and Prediction

The Cleveland Cavaliers open their play-in tournament bid with a visit to Barclays Center in a game against the Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday night.

Cleveland held a Top 6 spot for most of the season but a late-season slump pushed them all the way down to no. 8. The Cavs finished with an impressive 44-38 SU record which is the same as Brooklyn’s but will play this game on the road as the Nets own the tiebreaker between the two teams. Cleveland closed out their season with an emphatic 133-115 win over the Milwaukee Bucks who rested their key players.

Brooklyn was in the 10th spot just over a week ago. But the Nets finished their season strong with four consecutive wins to overtake three teams and end up as the 7th seed in the East. Although this isn’t where they wanted to be at the start of the year, the Nets have accomplished their goal of moving up to the best play-in position available.

Brooklyn beat Cleveland 117-108 at Barclays center just last April 8th in their final regular season meeting of the season.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs struggled to finish the regular season but at least, they ended it with a huge win over the Milwaukee Bucks. Of course, the Bucks rested their key players in that game but despite that, a win is a win and it gives the Cavs some momentum heading to this game.

Kevin Love scored 32 points and made 8 three-pointers as the Cavs beat the Bucks 133-115 on Sunday. Rookie of the Year betting favorite Evan Mobley posted a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds while Lauri Markkanen added 23 for the Cavs.

Cleveland ranked 5th in the league in scoring defense at only 105.6 points per game allowed during the regular season. The Cavs were just 25th in the NBA in scoring at 107.5 points per game and 16th in rebounding at 44.1 boards grabbed per contest. They were also ranked 12th in passing at 25.0 assists per game.

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets did what they had to do- win out their final four games to get to the 7th spot and secure home-court advantage in the play-in tournament. In their most recent game, the Nets beat the Indiana Pacers 134-126 to clinch the 7th seed in the East.

Kyrie Irving continued his wizardry with 35 points against the Pacers while Kevin Durant had a triple double with 20 points, 10 rebounds, and a career-high 16 assists. Andre Drummond also had a big game with 20 points and 13 rebounds while Bruce Brown chipped in 21.

Brooklyn is 9th in the NBA in scoring at 112.6 points per game. They ranked 13th in rebounding at 44.3 boards grabbed per contest and were the 10th best passing team in the league at 25.2 assists per game. The Nets were 19th in scoring defense, allowing 112.0 points per game this season.

Who Wins?

The Cavaliers are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played. Cleveland is also 1-5 SU in their last six games played on the road, and 10-15 SU in 25 road games against Eastern Conference teams.

The Nets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played and have won their last four games. Brooklyn is just 20-21 SU at home this season but the Nets won four out of their last six regular season assignments at Barclays Center.

Head to head, the Nets are 7-4 SU in their last 11 games played against the Cavaliers. Brooklyn is also 12-5 SU in their last 17 home games against Cleveland.

Give credit to the Cavaliers for finishing with a winning record in a season where there weren’t plenty of expectations. Cleveland was the first team to hit the over on their regular season win total, doing so in January. But they have struggled to finish the season as the injuries took their toll on this young team. Still, being able to get to the play-in tournament is an accomplishment.

The Nets meanwhile were off to a slow start and part of that had to do with Kyrie Irving being unable to play in their home games due to New York’s vaccine mandates. That resulted in Brooklyn finishing the regular season with a sub-.500 home record and the worst ATS record at home and home as favorites. But that is no longer a problem as New York has lifted that restriction.

With Irving able to play at home and KD 100% healthy, the Nets are legit title contenders. Sure, they have been a work in progress all-season long but this is a team that was assembled to win in the playoffs. Now that the postseason is here, I expect the big guns to deliver for the Nets.

Prediction: Brooklyn Nets

Other Bets to Make

Cleveland is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played. The Cavaliers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as betting underdogs, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one day rest, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on the road.

Brooklyn is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played. The Nets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Tuesday games, 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 11-28 AT in their last 39 games as home favorites, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games against an opponent with a losing road record, 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss, 3-23 ATS in their last 26 games as home favorites, 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one day rest, 6-26-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.

Head to head, the Nets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Brooklyn.

This is where the betting match-up gets interesting. Cleveland is a Top 10 ATS team at a 42-36-4 ATS record this season or a cover rate of 53.9%. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is the second-worst ATS team in the league this campaign at 32-48-2 ATS, or a cover rate of 40%. They are also the worst ATS team at home at 9-31-1 ATS on the season, including a disastrous 5-26-1 ATS in 32 games as home favorites.

Despite winning six out of their last nine games played overall, the Nets covered the betting spread in only three games during that span. At an average of -4.5 points against the betting spread this season, the Nets have the worst +/1 against the spread this season.

Things could be different here because it’s the postseason but unless the Nets prove it with results, they are not a team to trust against the spread. The Cavs have also struggled against the betting spread this season but the Nets have been worse. I expect the nets to win but I also expect the Cavs to give it a good fight. Seven out of the last 11 head-to-head meetings between these two teams had a winning margin of 8 or fewer points. I’ll take the plus points here.

Prediction: Cavaliers +8

The total has gone over in 11 out of the last 15 games played by the Cavaliers. The over is 4-0 in their last four games when playing on one day rest, 8-1-1 in their last 10 road games against an opponent with a losing home record, 7-1 in their last eight games after a straight-up win, 6-1 in their last seven Tuesday games, 5-1 in their last six games after an ATS win, 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games, 10-3 in their last 13 games as betting e underdogs, 6-2 in their last eight games as road underdogs, 5-2 in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, and 10-3 in their last 13 games when scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.

The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played by the Nets. The under is 4-0 in their last four games after an ATS loss, 5-1 in their last six games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 5-1 in their last six games after scoring 100 points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five games after a straight-up win, 9-4 in their last 13 games when allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last game when allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, and 5-1 in their last six games as betting favorites.

Head to head, the total has gone over in five out of the last seven meetings between these two teams.

These two teams have averaged to score just 220.7 points per game in their last four head-to-head meetings, all played this season. They combined for 225 just last April 8th when Brooklyn beat Cleveland 117-108 at Barclays Center. Cleveland is also ranked 5th in the league in scoring defense, which makes up for Brooklyn being ranked just 19th in the same statistical department.

The Cavaliers have scored 112 or fewer points six times in their last nine games played. Meanwhile, the Nets held three out of their last four regular season opponents to just 107 or fewer points.

Cleveland has shown that it can play good defense this season. With Brooklyn also recently showing that they can defend when needed, this game should go under the projected total, which I think is too high considering this is a postseason do-or-die game.

The Cavs won’t beat the Nets in a track meet. They will use their defense to win the game. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is going to win this game with its offense but the Cleveland defense will prevent them from turning this game into a high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Under 229.5

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