Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks 05/09/2022 NBA Odds and Prediction

The Boston Celtics return to the Fiserv Forum to try and take back the home-court advantage from the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday night.

Boston entered the series as the higher-seeded team but the Bucks surprised them in Game 1, pulling off a double-digit win. The Celtics responded with a strong Game 2 effort to even the series.

Game 3 shifted to Milwaukee and after the Bucks looked ready to blow out the Celtics, Boston stormed back and nearly stole the game in the final minute of action. The breaks went Milwaukee’s way and it’s the Bucks who head to Game 4 with a 2-1 series lead.

Boston Looking to Bounce Back

The Celtics will be looking to bounce back after a heartbreaking Game 3 loss. Boston had come all the way back from 13 points down to take a 100-99 lead but the Bucks made the big baskets down the stretch. Marcus Smart’s intentional miss a the foul line gave the Celtics several opportunities to force OT. Unfortunately, Al Horford’s tip-in was a split second too late.

Despite the loss, the Celtics can look back and be proud of their effort. Jayson Tatum scored only 10 points and missed all of his six three-point attempts but despite that, the Celtics lost by only two points and were seconds away from stealing the victory but it was not meant to be.

Now Boston is in a must-win situation because a loss here would put them 1-3 down in the series. Only 13 out 269 total teams down 1-3 in a Best of Seven series have ever come back to win the series. Of course, we’ve seen these Celtics face adversity this season but Ime Udoka surely doesn’t want to challenge historical stats.

Giannis Unstoppable in Game 3

Giannis Antetokounmpo played like a freight train in Game 3, barreling his way against Boston’s defenders en route to 41 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists. With Antetokounmpo unstoppable, the Bucks raced to a 13-point lead with just over nine minutes left in the game. Boston rallied but Giannis put out the fire with big plays down the stretch.

The Bucks are still without Khris Middleton but coach Mike Budenholzer got George Hill back in Game 3. While Hill cannot make up for Middleton’s output, he will be a huge lift on offense if he can deliver. Jrue Holiday scored 25 in Game 3 and he needs a similar effort on Monday if the Bucks want to win again.

Milwaukee has the best scoring defense in the playoffs and they have to be ready for a Jayson Tatum bounce-back game. To do that, they need their role players like Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Wesley Matthews, and Hill to deliver the points needed to match Boston’s scoring. If they can do that, the Bucks should be good here.

Who Wins?

These teams have split their last 10 meetings but Milwaukee has won two out of the last three. The Bucks have beaten the Celtics four times in their last five games in Milwaukee.

Boston is:

• 15-5 SU in its last 20 games played.

• 4-2 SU in its last six games played on the road.

• 17-12 SU in its last 29 road games against teams from the East.

• 5-15 SU in its last 20 games played in the month of May.

Milwaukee is:

• 5-1 SU in its last six games played.

• 3-1 SU in its last four home games.

• 6-1 SU in its last seven games played in May.

• 2-5 SU in its last seven Monday games.

Jayson Tatum struggled in Game 3 as he made only 4 out of 19 shots for 10 points while missing all of his six three-point attempts. Despite that, the Celtics rallied from a 13-point deficit with just over nine minutes left in the game and took the lead at 100-99 on Jaylen Brown’s free throws.

Fortunately, Milwaukee scored the next two baskets and Marcus Smart was awarded only two free throws when the Celtics were looking for a three-pointer to tie the game. That set up Smart’s intentional miss where Boston got a pair of chances to tie the game but could not. Al Horford’s tip-in was a split second too late and the Bucks escaped with a Game 3 win.

Giannis Antetokounmpo looked unstoppable with 42 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists. He just ran over Boston’s defenders and got away with plenty of contacts. Jrue Holiday added 25 points including a key basket in the closing moments of the game.

It’s hard to ask Giannis to duplicate his Game 3 effort and it’s also hard to imagine Tatum having a second consecutive poor shooting game. I like the Celtics to bounce back strong behind a strong effort from Tatum. Giannis should have another big game but I don’t think he will put up another 40+ game on Monday.

Betting sites are picking this series to go seven games. I think they are correct. The momentum has shifted after each game and it will again in Game 4.

Prediction: Boston Celtics

Celtics vs Bucks Game 4 Spread Prediction

The Celtics have covered the betting spread in nine out of their last 10 head-to-head meetings against the Bucks. Boston is also 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Milwaukee.

The Celtics are:

• 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

• 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.

• 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.

• 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight-up loss.

• 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

• 21-8 ATS in their last 29 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.

• 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

• 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

The Bucks are:

• 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.

• 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite.

• 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record.

• 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.

• 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage better than .600.

• 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as home favorites.

• 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

• 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. an opponent with a winning record on the road.

The Celtics and Bucks are like two heavyweights trading big punches in every game. The Bucks won big in Game 1 and the Celtics came back to tie the series with a huge win. In Game 3, the Bucks looked headed for an easy win before the Celtics rallied and threatened to steal the game at the end. Luckily, the Bucks survived as they got the benefit of come calls down the stretch. However, don’t expect these Celtics to just lay down and die.

Remember that this was a team that went from outside the play-in tournament to finishing 2nd overall in the East. Sure, Boston lost Game 3 but Tatum had a miserable shooting night. Given how he’s played in the 2022 playoffs, Tatum is due to bounce back strong in Game 4. With Jaylen Brown and Al Horford providing the needed support, there’s no way this is going to be an easy win for the Bucks.

Giannis had a big Game 3 but look for Boston to make the right adjustments in Game 4 just as they have done all season long. I expect the Boston defense to show up on Monday night. With Tatum getting his game back, I’ll take the underdogs here.

Prediction: Boston Celtics +1

Celtics vs Bucks Game 4 Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in each of the last three head-to-head meetings between these two teams. However, the over is 6-1 in their last seven games played in Milwaukee.

Over/Under Trends for the Boston Celtics:

• Under is 11-1 in Celtics’ last 12 Conference Semifinals games.

• Under is 5-1 in Celtics’ last 6 games played overall.

• Under is 4-1 in Celtics’ last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1 in Celtics’ last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1 in Celtics’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1 in Celtics’ last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1 in their last five games against the Eastern Conference

• Under is 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent from the Central Division.

• Over is 6-2 in Celtics’ last 8 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

• Over is 7-3 in Celtics’ last 10 road games.

• Over is 4-0 in Celtics’ last four Monday games.

Over/Under Trends for the Milwaukee Bucks:

• Under is 8-0 in Bucks’ last 8 games played overall.

• Under is 4-0 in Bucks ‘last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 6-0 in Bucks’ last 6 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 4-0 in Bucks’ last 4 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 6-0 in Bucks’ last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 5-0 in Bucks’ last 5 games following a straight up win.

• Under is 6-0 in Bucks’ last 6 games as a favorite.

• Under is 4-0 in Bucks’ last 4 games as a home favorite.

• Under is 4-0 in Bucks’ last 4 home games.

• Over is 7-1 in Bucks’ last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

• Under is 19-6-2 in Bucks’ last 27 playoff games as a favorite.

• Under is 19-7-1 in Bucks’ last 27 Conference Semifinals games.

• Under is 8-3 in Bucks’ last 11 Monday games.

• Under is 7-3 in Bucks’ last 10 games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600.

• Under is 5-0 in Bucks’ last five games against Eastern Conference teams.

• Under is 4-1 in Bucks’ last five games against the Atlantic Division

These teams have hit the under in each of the first three games of this series with no total going over 205 points and twice hitting below 200 points. Milwaukee is the top defensive team in the postseason at 96.9 points per game allowed.

Meanwhile, the Celtics were the top defensive team during the regular season and are 4th in scoring defense in the current playoffs at 103.7 points per game allowed. With both teams among the best defensive teams remaining in the playoffs, not one of them has scored more than 106 points in a game this series.

Look for Jayson Tatum to be aggressive in this game after struggling badly in Game 3. In the end, Tatum should have a big bounce-back performance but with Jaylen Brown and Al Horford playing so well as of late, one or both of them are due for an off-night soon. That could come on Monday night.

Prediction: Under 212

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