Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat 05/25/2022 NBA Odds and Predictions

The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat meet again on Wednesday night at the FTX Arena for Game 5 of the 2022 NBA Eastern Conference Finals.

The top seeded-Heat and the 2nd ranked Celtics have traded wins in this series. Miami drew first blood but the Celtics bounced back with a strong Game 2 effort that evened the series. The Heat responded with a big Game 3 and reclaimed home-court advantage. Facing a must-win Game 4, the Celtics stormed back to win Game 4 to even the series at 2-2.

Game 5 is perhaps the most important game of the series with almost 80% of the teams that win the game from a 2-2 series have gone on to win the matchup. The Heat have opened as slight -1.5 point favorites to win the game.

Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum redeemed himself from a 10-point Game 3 with 31 in Game 4 and the Celtics jumped to a 26-4 lead and never looked back. Jaylen Brown struggled on 5-20 shooting with only 14 points after a playoff career-high 41 in Game 3 but Robert Williams III returned to score 12 points and grab 9 rebounds while Payton Pritchard scored 14 points for the Celtics.

Boston forced Miami to commit 26 total fouls and they took 38 free throws, making 32 or 84.2% while committing only 15 fouls and giving the Heat 14 free throw attempts, 8 of which they made for a 24-point differential at the foul line. The Celtics also dominated the glass, grabbing 60 rebounds against 39 by the Heat.

Miami Heat

The Heat cooled off in Game 4 with their starters combining to score only 18 points with no starter scoring in double figures. The lone bright spot for Miami was Victor Oladipo who had 23 points, 4 rebounds, and six assists. Duncan Robinson also added 14 points and went 4-8 from a three-point distance. Jimmy Butler scored only 6 points while Bam Adebayo only had 9. Max Strus, who hit big shots in Game 3 missed all of his 7 shot attempts.

Miami shot just 33.3% from the field and went to the foul line only 14 times as they were held down to only 82 points by the Celtics. They were outrebounded on the defensive glass by 17 rebounds and also committed 11 more fouls that led to 24 more free throw attempts by the Celtics.

Who Wins?

The Celtics have beaten the Heat in three out of their last five head-to-head meetings. Boston has also won three out of their last four meetings in Miami.

The Celtics are:

• 14-6 SU in their last 20 games played.

• 3-2 SU in their last five games played on the road.

• 4-2 SU in their last six games played in May.

• 20-13 SU in their last 33 road games against Eastern Conference teams.

The Heat are:

• 14-6 SU in their last 20 games played.

• 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played at home.

• 4-2 SU in their last six games against an opponent from the Eastern Conference.

• 27-7 SU in their last 34 home games against the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics won Game 4 with Jayson Tatum bouncing back from a 10-point effort in Game 3 to score 31 to lead the Celtics in a 102-82 win. However, while Tatum has been able to consistently bounce back from a poor performance in the current playoffs, he has not been able to deliver consistently good performances either. For Boston to win Game 5, Tatum must play to his abilities, anything less would give the Heat an opportunity to take advantage of.

The same can be said about Jimmy Butler who has been incredibly inconsistent in the series. Butler opened the series with a 41-point performance that led to a win. However, Butler has been hounded by a knee injury in the last two games, and it is unclear if he is 100%. And Miami’s chances in this series depend largely on how healthy or not Butler is.

Both teams have key players listed as questionable. The Celtics have Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III while Tyler Herro is questionable for the Heat. Given this should be treated as a must-win game for both teams, I expect all players to suit up. But which of them is in better shape remains to be seen.

The wins in this series have belonged to the team which got off to a better start. There have been no dramatic come-from-behind wins in this series so far and that should be the case here. I’m going with the Heat because while Boston got off to a strong start in Game 2 in Miami, the Heat will be looking to bounce back in Game 5. I expect the Heat to respond with a strong effort here. There’s a good chance they don’t fire blanks at home.

Prediction: Miami Heat

Celtics vs Miami Heat Game 5 Spread Prediction

Boston is 2-1 ATS in their last three games played against Miami. Head to head, the Celtics are 3-1 ATS in their last four road games played against the Heat.

The Celtics are:

• 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.

• 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.

• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

• 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

• 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games against an opponent from the Eastern Conference.

• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games.

• 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

• 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

• 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.

• 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.

• 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.

The Heat are:

• Heat are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games overall.

• Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.

• Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

• Heat are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

• Heat are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

• Heat are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

• Heat are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog.

• Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.

• Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

• Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

• 8-4 in their last 12 games against the Atlantic Division.

• Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.

Sure, the Celtics blew out the Heat in Game 4 but remember that Boston scored only 102 points in that game. What that means is that the Heat only need to fix their shooting woes to get back in the series. Miami scored only 82 in Game 3 with none of its starters scoring in double digits. That isn’t likely to happen again and knowing Jimmy Butler, like Tatum, will bounce back from a subpar game to lead the Heat. The Heat are not a top offensive team but they are definitely much better than their last performance. Game 5 being played in Miami makes me all the more confident about going with the Heat who are 36-13 ATS at home this season.

These two teams have gone back and forth in this series and it won’t be a surprise to see the series tilt in Miami’s direction this time around. Give me the Heat to bounce back with a strong performance at home to take a 3-2 series lead.

Prediction: Heat +1.5

Boston Celtics vs Heat Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in 10 out of the last 14 meetings between these two teams. The over is also 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Miami.

Boston Celtics over/under trends:

• Over is 7-1 in the Celtics’ last 8 Conference Finals games.

• Over is 10-3 in the Celtics’ last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

• Over is 12-4-1 in the Celtics’ last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

• Over is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

• Over is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

• Over is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last five games against teams from the Southeast Division.

• Over is 10-4 in the Celtics’ last 14 road games.

• Over is 17-7-1 in the Celtics’ last 25 games following an ATS win.

• Over is 19-8-1 in the Celtics’ last 28 games following a straight up win.

• Over is 11-5 in the Celtics’ last 16 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

• Under is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 games as a favorite.

• Under is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 playoff games as a favorite.

• Under is 15-6 in the Celtics’ last 21 Wednesday games.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

• Under is 9-4 in the Heat’s last 13 overall.

• Under is 4-1 in theHeat’s last 5 road games.

• Under is 8-3 in the Heat’s last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 8-3 in the Heat’s last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 6-2 in the Heat’s last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 6-2 in the Heat’s last 8 games as an underdog.

• Over is 36-17 in the Heat’s last 53 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.

• Over is 9-2 in the Heat’s last 10 games against a team with a winning straight up record.

• Over is 21-8 in the Heat’s last 28 Conference Finals games.

• Over is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 Wednesday games.

203.5 is the second-lowest total in the series, after the 203 in Game 1 which of course the teams obliterated with a total of 225 points. I think the total was set too low after these teams combined for only 184 points in Game 4. However, that was a game where Tyler Herro and Marcus Smart did not play for their respective squads. Both players are still listed as questionable for Wednesday’s game but given the importance of Game 5, I expect both players to suit up and play.

The Celtics and Heat have combined to score an average of 215.6 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 208.33 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings. Both these teams are elite defensive teams and I know we are in the conference finals already. Still, I think 203.5 is too low for a total with these two offenses playing.

Prediction: Over 203.5

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