Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams 09/12/2021 NFL Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The Chicago Bears travel to the SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, September 12th, in a Week 1 showdown between the NFC North and NFC West.

Los Angeles defeated Chicago 24-10 as 6.5-point chalk in week 7 of the 2020 season but the quarterbacks in that game, Jared Goff and Nick Foles are no more.

The Rams will parade veteran Mattew Stafford whom they traded for during the offseason. Stafford previously played for the Detroit Lions and is very familiar with playing against the Bears. Stafford has a career 11-9 SU record against the Bears during his 12-year NFL career.

The Bears have opted to go with veteran Andy Dalton instead of rookie Justin Fields as their starter and that didn’t do well to help their cause, at least in the betting arena. Los Angeles opened as seven-point favorites to win their season opener but the line has since moved up to 7.5 points.

Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears enter the season with hopes of returning to the postseason for the second consecutive year. Chicago made the 2020 playoffs despite an 8-8 record but was immediately sent home by the New Orleans Saints. The Bears traded up to draft Justin Fields but unfortunately for the fans, the team has decided to go with veteran Andy Dalton as their week 1 starter.

Dalton looked fine last season while throwing for 2,169 passing yards with 14 touchdown passes. However, that was in Dallas and he will be adjusting to a new system under Matt Nagy.

Chicago’s offensive line will be tested in this game with Aaron Donald leading the Los Angeles defense. Foles was sacked four times and intercepted twice by this Rams defense last season and given the lack of upgrade Chicago did during the offseason, that could happen again on Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have high expectations for the year after acquiring Matthew Stafford during the offseason. Considered an upgrade from Jared Goff, Stafford’s presence will give the Rams the offensive offense to match their stifling defense. The Rams have a Top 10 Super Bowl LVI odds and they are expected to go deep in the playoffs this season.

Stafford didn’t play during the preseason but we know what he is capable of. Last season, he threw for 4,084 passing yards with 26 touchdowns for a Lions team that doesn’t have the kind of weapons he has right now in Los Angeles.

Against the Bears, Stafford has thrown for a total of 5,440 passing yards with 32 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He also knows this Chicago defense too well from his time in the NFC North.

Who Wins?

Chicago is 3-8 SU in their last 11 games played. The Bears are 1-7 SU in their last eight games against the NFC, and 2-3 in their last five games played on the road.

Los Angeles is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Rams are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games played against the NFC, and 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played at home.

Head to head, the Bears are 6-3 in their last nine games played against the Rams. However, Los Angeles is 13-5 in their last 18 home games against Chicago.

Dalton is solid but I don’t expect him to have a dominant game, especially with Aaron Donald and company on the other end of the field. Stafford is different. He may be playing with the best set of weapons ever and he’s got the passing ability to make things work for the Rams this year.

As I said earlier, the better offense wins this game. It won’t be a track meet as far as scoring TDs are concerned. But the team with the better offense wins this. Surely, that team is Los Angeles.

Prediction: Rams

Other Bets to Make

The Bears are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games played. Chicago is 2-4 ATS in their last six games played on the road, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as betting underdogs, 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs, 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the NFC, and 4-1 ATS in their last five September games.

The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six Week 1 games played, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as home favorites, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 September games, 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games against the NFC.

Head to head, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams.

The Rams didn’t light up the scoreboards during the preseason with only 34 total points in three games played but remember that Stafford did not take a single snap. With Stafford starting, the Rams’ offense is expected to be more explosive than what it was last season.

Chicago has one of the worst group of cornerbacks in the NFL and they are also pretty thin in that position. They also have some issues with their offensive line.

Dalton should be able to keep the Bears in the game early. But once Stafford gets going, the Rams should get cooking and their defense is going to make the Bears bleed for points. I think Los Angeles pulls away in the second half and covers the spread. Prediction: Rams -7.5

The total has gone over in five out of the last seven games played by the Bears. The under is 5-0 in their last five games against the NFC West, 13-5 in their last 18 games as road betting underdogs, and 15-7 in their last 22 games as betting underdogs.

The total has gone under in 11 out of the last 15 games played by the Rams. The under is also 5-1 in their last six games against the NFC North, 9-1 in their last 10 games on field turf, 13-3 in their last 16 games as home favorites, 20-6 in their last 26 games as favorites, and 8-0 in their last eight games played at home.

Head to head, the under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams.

Both these teams have elite defenses and the total seems too high for defenses of their caliber. The Rams have a strong defensive line and an excellent secondary so Chicago should have a hard time moving the ball and scoring points.

Meanwhile, Stafford did not play during the preseason as the Rams treated their preseason games as an audition for rookie QB Bryce Perkins. So I expect him to struggle early with his timing and the new playbook. He should make adjustments during the game but a slow start should help the score go under the total.

Prediction: Under 46.5

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