Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates 7/1/19 MLB Odds and Prediction

The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates open a four-game series on July 1, 2019, at the PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

For the Cubs, it will be 24-year old Adbert Alzolay who will open on top of the mound on Monday. The Acarigua, Venezuela native has pitched in two games this season and has an ERA of 2.08 with a WHIP of  0.92 and a BAA of .071. The Cubs have a record of 1-1 in Alzolay’s two appearances this season.

The Cubs’ homegrown pitcher shone in his MLB debut when he came off the bullpen to pitch 4.0 innings while allowing just one hit on a home run while striking out five and earning his first career win. However, in his first start of the season last June 24th, Alzolay was handed the loss during the Cubs’ 2-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves. In that game, he also allowed just one run on a home run.

Catcher Wilson Contreras leads Chicago with his .291 batting average. First baseman Anthony Rizzo has 56 RBIs to lead the Cubs while shortstop Javier Baez has 20 home runs to top the Chicago order. As a team, the Cubs are hitting at a .252 clip and have scored a total of 420 runs on the season.

Right-hander Trevor Williams gets the nod to start the series against the Cubs. The 27-year old from Arizona State University has started in a total of 11 games this season and has posted a record of 2-2 with an ERA 4.25, a wHIP of 1.15 and a BAA of .267. The Pirates are 6-4 SU in his last 10 starts.

In a total of 65.2 innings pitched this season, Williams has given up 32 runs ( 31 were earned ) with only 8 home runs.  He has struck out a total of 53 batters and has walked a total of 10. In his last start, Williams pitched a total of 6.2 innings and gave up four earned runs on eight hits including two home runs. He was handed the loss as Chicago dropped a 1-5 contest against the Houston Astros.

For the Pirates, first baseman Josh Bell has been their main man on offense. Bell leads the team with his .303 batting average and he also has 70 RBIs on the season to pace Pittsburgh. Bell has also drilled a team-high 22 homers this season. The Pirates have scored a total of 375 runs on the season and are hitting the ball at a .265 batting average.

Who Wins?

Chicago is 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. The Cubs are 1-1 SU in their last two games played on the road. Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. The Pirates are 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last five games played against the Pirates. The Cubs are also 6-4 SU in their last 10 road games against the Pirates.

The Cubs are 3-9 SU in their last dozen games versus a right-handed starter and 3-10 in their last 13 games played on the road. The Pirates are 4-11 SU in their last 15 series openers, 1-6 SU in their last seven Monday games and 5-1 SU in Williams’ last six starts at home. However, the Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Pirates and Williams is 1-5 in last five starts against the Cubs.

The Cubs are the baseball betting favorites here and my worry on Chicago is that Alzolay doesn’t have enough pitching experience at the majors yet. However, he has been impressive given the short time he’s pitched so far. In 8.2 innings pitched, he’s given up just two runs, and this includes an outing against the surging Atlanta Braves. As for Williams, he has a 6.0 ERA and is allowing a .283 batting average at home. He’s also allowed 11 runs and 17 hits in his last 11.2 innings pitched.

This will be Alzolay’s first start on the road and the Cubs have struggled to play away from home. But I’m not interested in Williams because of his recent record against the Cubs and how he’s pitched as of late. Chicago has the better offense here so I’ll bet their bats show up and help Alzolay get his first road win ever. Prediction: Chicago Cubs

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Other Bets To Make

The Cubs are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. Chicago is 1-1 ATS in their last two games played on the road. The Pirates are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played. Pittsburgh is 2-3 ATS in their last five games played at home.

The Cubs have outscored the Pirates by an average of 3 runs per game in their last three head to head meetings. Eight out of the Cubs’ last 10  games played, including the last four, were decided by two or more runs. Take the plus money here. Prediction: Cubs -1.5

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The under is 5-1-1 in the Cubs’ last seven games played. The total has gone under in three out of the last four road games played by Chicago. On the other hand, the under is 3-2 in the last five games played by the Pirates. The over is 5-3-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 games played at home. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 head to head meetings between these two teams. The total has gone under in six out of their last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.

The under is 42-16-1 in Williams’ last 59 starts and 14-2-1 in his last 17 starts against an opponent with a winning record. The under is also 4-0 in the Pirates’ last four games versus National League Central teams and 3-0-1 in their last four Game 1s of a series. On the other hand, the under is 4-0 in Chicago’s last for games on the road, 4-0 in their last four games against a right-handed starter and 5-1 in their last six games against National League Central foes. Prediction: Under 9.5

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